Yes, I've noticed that of late that the same 850's are bring higher temperatures. Must be just mixing or something because one thing climate change doesn't change is the physics which are absolute. -8C 850's will always be -8C but they might not be as frequent!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Quite. Surely from a coldies point of view this must rank as one of the most disastrous winters of all time? At least in 88 we could convince ourselves that it was an anomaly. However, the reality now is that the chance of snow in the south is significantly lower than it was back then. On the plus side we can at least be confident that 30C will be reached in the summer.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Warmer SST's? 

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

Quite. Surely from a coldies point of view this must rank as one of the most disastrous winters of all time? At least in 88 we could convince ourselves that it was an anomaly. However, the reality now is that the chance of snow in the south is significantly lower than it was back then. On the plus side we can at least be confident that 30C will be reached in the summer.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Hi Neil, would you be able to free up a bit of space in your in-box so I can send you a message? 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

It feels like we are reaching the maximum point of frustration for this Winter as this forum is awash with moaning about global warming.

Yet the funny thing is, is that if we were having a freezing cold Winter it's more than likely that the situation with global warming would be absolutely no different than it is now, just that there would be far less people moaning about it on here. i.e. the global temperature anomaly would be basically the same whether we were having a freezing winter or a very mild one, just that the distribution of heat would be different.

Too many people confuse weather with climate and that is what I think is happening here, our perceptions of climate change are influenced by the weather we see out of the window, when in fact on the global scale we are just a drop in the ocean. Just because we are having a warm or cold season doesn't mean anything is dramatically changing on a global scale (hopefully the point I am getting at is making sense).

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

It feels like we are reaching the maximum point of frustration for this Winter as this forum is awash with moaning about global warming.

Yet the funny thing is, is that if we were having a freezing cold Winter it's more than likely that the situation with global warming would be absolutely no different than it is now, just that there would be far less people moaning about it on here. i.e. the global temperature anomaly would be basically the same whether we were having a freezing winter or a very mild one, just that the distribution of heat would be different.

Too many people confuse weather with climate and that is what I think is happening here, our perceptions of climate change are influenced by the weather we see out of the window, when in fact on the global scale we are just a drop in the ocean. Just because we are having a warm or cold season doesn't mean anything is dramatically changing on a global scale (hopefully the point I am getting at is making sense).

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

It feels like we are reaching the maximum point of frustration for this Winter as this forum is awash with moaning about global warming.

Yet the funny thing is, is that if we were having a freezing cold Winter it's more than likely that the situation with global warming would be absolutely no different than it is now, just that there would be far less people moaning about it on here. i.e. the global temperature anomaly would be basically the same whether we were having a freezing winter or a very mild one, just that the distribution of heat would be different.

Too many people confuse weather with climate and that is what I think is happening here, our perceptions of climate change are influenced by the weather we see out of the window, when in fact on the global scale we are just a drop in the ocean. Just because we are having a warm or cold season doesn't mean anything is dramatically changing on a global scale (hopefully the point I am getting at is making sense).

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

GFS op showing signs of a change in 12 days time, would all be forgiven if we got a 1 week cold spell?!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Yes, I've noticed that of late that the same 850's are bring higher temperatures. Must be just mixing or something because one thing climate change doesn't change is the physics which are absolute. -8C 850's will always be -8C but they might not be as frequent!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I admire your optimism but looks very unconvincing. Roll on Spring 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Interestingly, the global temp anomaly is just currently just a small bit above average (+0.1c). 

gfs_nh-sat1_t2anom_1-day.png (800×846) (climatereanalyzer.org)

Global temps were warmer this time last year, yet it was a cooler winter generally speaking in this part of the world. Pure luck is the bigger driving force I think. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Yes thanks for posting that. This is the exact point I am getting at, the global temp anomaly is only (+0.1c) compared to the 79-00 base and yet last Winter was colder and I think the global temperature anomaly was slightly higher. 

As another example say in December 2010 which of course was freezing I would imagine the overall global temperature anomaly was similar to now, maybe a little higher, yet some people probably thought GW was finished and we were heading to an ice age but it was just that the warm air was going up to Greenland and all the polar air was being directed to us.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Yes thanks for posting that. This is the exact point I am getting at, the global temp anomaly is only (+0.1c) compared to the 79-00 base and yet last Winter was colder and I think the global temperature anomaly was slightly higher. 

As another example say in December 2010 which of course was freezing I would imagine the overall global temperature anomaly was similar to now, maybe a little higher, yet some people probably thought GW was finished and we were heading to an ice age but it was just that the warm air was going up to Greenland and all the polar air was being directed to us.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Used to be 2 to 3C max and 0C to 1C at -10C  set up but no longer the case and in summer when it max average 11C peak summer mean 24-25C but now 19-20C while min peak of -3 give 4-5C now 8-9C. That the main reason most of the time models has been very wrong in surface results.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Not sure it washes to moan about too many others moaning about global warming, when you post such a lot about it. I appreciate that you don’t think that either Climate Change is happening or that it has no effect on UK weather. Both would be wrong and not backed up by the science, despite the odd cold anomaly.

I wish denial would make it go away,  but it wont. I’m sure Boris wishes denial would make his dozen Covid parties disappear, or denial that Brexit would make the UK poorer, when the real reason was because the EU was planning sweeping tax powers for off-shore investment / hedge funds, or that the attack on the UKs world leading climate change scientist at UEA that he was falsifying data was anything but a lie for the sole purpose of delaying action to curb greenhouse gases, from those that sold fossil fuels. Had they not done so, we would be 10 years ahead with tackling it. 

The evidence is irrefutable - in temperatures (effect greatest - the closer to the poles you get), wildlife, precipitation, plants and forest health, number and intensity of wild fires, reduced incidents of snowfall and in terms of diarised personal experience of the weather in the UK. The number, intensity and duration of cold spells in the UK was greater in my father’s childhood than my childhood. Now in my old age - it is considerably less than my childhood. 

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

Hang on at no point did I say that I didn't think climate change was happening or that it had no effect on UK weather.

What I was saying was that the weather in the UK at the moment and the global temperature anomaly are two very different things as shown by the climate reanalysis charts that Chunky Pea posted. As shown in December 2010 we had a global temperature anomaly of +0.2c and of course it was a historical and severe cold month in the UK, whereas now we have a slightly cooler global temperature at +0.1c and we are having a fairly mild Winter, yet it seems like some posters are suggesting that this mild winter is due to global warming.

As for bringing Boris, Brexit and COVID into it I feel you are going wildly off topic 😂😂 Even just talking of climate change is kind of off topic for this thread as it is meant to be the 'Model output discussion' 

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Hang on at no point did I say that I didn't think climate change was happening or that it had no effect on UK weather.

What I was saying was that the weather in the UK at the moment and the global temperature anomaly are two very different things as shown by the climate reanalysis charts that Chunky Pea posted. As shown in December 2010 we had a global temperature anomaly of +0.2c and of course it was a historical and severe cold month in the UK, whereas now we have a slightly cooler global temperature at +0.1c and we are having a fairly mild Winter, yet it seems like some posters are suggesting that this mild winter is due to global warming.

As for bringing Boris, Brexit and COVID into it I feel you are going wildly off topic 😂😂 Even just talking of climate change is kind of off topic for this thread as it is meant to be the 'Model output discussion' 

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Inaccurate. December 2010 was 0.37c above the 20th century average; December 2021 was 0.32c above. Not that taking a single month is of much value in isolation.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White