Interestingly the top two analogue years on the index today are 2013 and 1962, which boasted the two coldest March months in the whole 75 years listed.

That certainly seems to have been the case for much of the time this winter, at least since the schenanigans of mid-December.

In most recent winters, the 5-10 day range in the models has been reasoanably reliable for much of the time regardless of the set-up, but not this time.

Weather really stuck in a rut - wx summary temps as yesterday (Europe generally a bit above average for next 2 weeks, cold but not v cold out to the east, even Turkey warming up) and rain as ever on N Atlantic (most of Europe dry, the dry area reaching S England)

Jet running in fits and starts near N Scotland with tendency to dip S-wards as it reaches Europe

GFS op - mainly zonal flow with W-lies, with a couple of deeper troughs bringing something colder and wetter affecting the N half of Britain Sun 13th and Wed 16th

GEFS - for the S, mild around Tue 8th then cooler Fri 11th then mean near norm with usual spread of ens members, control & op often going opposite ways. Intermittent rain after 11th. Similar temp pattern for Scotland but some rain before 11th and significantly more after that exc NE

ECM - also mainly zonal but with more passing interruptions (a N-ly in the N Sea Mon 7th, LP near N Scotland Thu 10th and Mon 14th)

Old Ceefax, newspapers and teletexts forecast were very reliable before than today 100% not reliable after 2 days and can be unreliable on the same day when you look outside from window and get different results.  Last summer was very often 100% unreliable when kept showing HP but resulted cold, rain and dull days as a result. If was in the past it would show LP and not HP for unsettled weather. I remember picking a newspaper weather section show HP and same time you see is sunny as you reading it.

Next weeks cold snap is being downgraded by each successive run: The speed of the northern arm of the jet is flattening the high and cutting off the northerly feed earlier and the cold pool reaching the UK is again well-modified by he Atlantic. The high curled in an easterly for about 6 hours, before the whole lot is flattened further and pushed on east. The FI run then continues the winter theme of polar maritime flip flop with tropical maritime warm sectors. 

Just in the same way 62 was caused by a locked in jet pattern, that La Niña has not delivered for us - the pattern of the jet is too flat, and too strong. Disappointing considering that we must rely more on the Maunder Minimum clusters for cold winters. This one had promise. 

The snowdrops are out looking very merry, and the sunshine is beckoning me garden bound for a late tidy. I am now looking forward to spring, but I wouldn’t kick that old Lady Bird Book - What to Look for in Winter Tunicliffe illustrated scene - out of bed, - where the late winter snow fall nestled and lingered, part melted in the sun - with the bulbs bravely flowering through.  A late Feb/ early March special - was it 1996 or there about, when a little low formed off Greenland and swept down on a powerful jet out of the blue - in an otherwise unremarkable year, and on the 9th of March blanketed the country in snow - it was for us a chunky 4” (in old money), and lasted in the intense March sunshine for about 3-4 days, due to the intensity of the cold air dragged in behind its wake. 

That would do me...

Can I say it? Winter is over.

Stick a fork in it, it's done!

[quote=Taylor1740;1415756 All based on current output of course, as we know it's pretty useless beyond about 5 days.