-7C 850's in the S.E Monday/Tuesday with temps plummeting to 8C .

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What's/who's Steeltown, please? 

I'm not sure we're allowed to mention him after a member [some time ago] posted maps on this site that were supposed to be only for his subscribers.

Think of a town in the Midlands that used to produce steel...

PM me if you're not sure. 👍

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I wonder is it possible that there is some unknown 'index' in the tropical Atlantic similar to that of El Nino/La Nina phenomena in the Pacific that is driving this NE Atlantic weather pattern? We've seen a big pattern flip over in N. America in recent weeks yet this has had zero impact on the broad Atlantic pattern - when it normally would have,  so something bigger must be at play here (a bigger 'driving force', if you will)

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Straying into non model outlook territory, but I wonder if it is the accidental consequence of weather modification/cloud seeding that is becoming more regular around the world. Essentially creating small changes to the weather patterns which have small but significant changes elsewhere.

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Good old GFS throwing out some interest this morning. Will see this as winters last chance for a decent wintry blast.

WX summary continues to show most of Europe just above norm; a weak suggestion of colder influence from the north in week 2 with a 'blob' over Scotland and Norway remaining cold (they seem to be having a memorable winter only just the other side of the N Sea). Pptn in a band from Iceland to Turkey week 1 retreating to N Atlantic week 2. Still minimal rain for S England.

Strong jet across/close to N Scotland now and again Mon 7th, after which it's off to Spain. 

GFS 0z - after Corrie passes through, HP re-establishes near S England with a period of strong W-lies to Wed 9th, when the HP removes to the C Atlantic allowing NW/N-lies to move cold air S-wards through the N Sea. Final chart Tue 15th (FI alert!) has HP from Shetland to Spitzbergen, a cold LP over France and a light NE-ly for England

GEFS - cool 1st and 5th Feb, mild between; after that agreement between ens members breaks up with mean being mild at first declining to just below norm by 15th. Op & control both distinctly cold around the 13th. Minimal rain in the S; rather more in NE from Sat 5th and even more in the NW. Prospect of plenty of snow for the Cairngorms, declining S-wards and v. little chance for England.

ECM blocks the W-lies for a couple of days around Mon 7th with HP to the SE but not lasting

 

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[quote=ballamar;1414273]Good old GFS throwing out some interest this morning. Will see this as winters last chance for a decent wintry blast.

 

Yes - eye candy for sure  - out of the blue. Let’s hope it is not a mirage - that disappears when we get closer in model time. 

[/https://images.meteociel.fr/im/31/16425/animqma2.gif

 

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Oh I'm sure we'll get a late Feb / March dry easterly that melts anything in the early Spring sunshine 

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[quote=Tom Oxon;1414305]

 

 

Yes - eye candy for sure  - out of the blue. Let’s hope it is not a mirage - that disappears when we get closer in model time. 

[/https://images.meteociel.fr/im/31/16425/animqma2.gif

 

 

Oh I'm sure we'll get a late Feb / March dry easterly that melts anything in the early Spring sunshine 

 

 

Only a couple of weeks before the Sun starts to have a kick to it. The non winter continues. 

 

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Wetterzentrale now has ECM ensembles data. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

 

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Good find, about time !
Martin

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Will be freely available on TWO this coming week. See:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=22734

 

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Very mild Feb on th way? Possibly:

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If there no snow then better to save on heating costs as it been lower this year my heating compare to last year despite the rises on prices.   10-12C in Feb under the stronger sun are quite useable to go outside and car heating not required too as it already warm enough from the sun.  Need April and May to be much warmer to have 100% no heating as they going to increased a lot.

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Nice one!

 

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I watched that GFS animated run - and thought wow! This could at least be like February 2017 when after a benign January we could see some weather in February like in February 2017 when we saw brief easterly end of the second week. However I looked closer and noticed it  was the GFS 00z run and the 06z run has anything but an easterly - so in response to above it clearly was a mirage which has disappeared before it can even be discussed! 

 

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Quite possibly, Brian.

 

That said, for me there is little point in taking any runs for more than the immediate few days ahead with any amount of seriousness at the moment as IMO, the models have been next door to hopeless this winter for any further ahead than 4-5 days in advance. Even more unreliable than usual I would say.

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I agree or even 3 days ahead remember we were expecting an easterly and a cold Christmas potential easterly and snow showers with the cold perhaps strengthening after Christmas, backed up by the EC, JMA and CFSv2 as well as Met Office and BBC etc - this was a continued trend for cold and blocked weather right up until the 22nd/23rd December when the models flipped and we then saw the Atlantic win the battle and this was less than 3 days! - remember this chart below for 25th December 2021 which was what we saw? - Even this shows that cold are to the NE wasn't far away at all and then it turned out a mild Xmas for most of the UK. We were SOOOOOOOOOOO close So close to pulling in the cold air-mass which was sitting over Scandinavia for almost one month and it didn't come off! - That low pressure just never sank southwards allowing HP to build across northern latitudes. 

Also worth noting that the models were NOT forecasting/showing an exceptionally mild NYE/NYD and this came as a big surprise as well to many of us because if that cold Christmas and boxing day 2021  would have come about then we would have lasted into the NY as well and could have seen a prolonged cold spell. Gavsweathervids did call it 50/50 so credits to him for that, however it turned against us sadly and since then we haven't had any real weather to talk of! 

Sadly, because we haven't had any ice days, freezing fog, no northerly or easterly or snow or SSW etc the only talking point of this winter would be how mild NYE and NYD was.

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Perhaps in your part of the country. Sadly I suspect this winter will be remembered up here for the storminess which uprooted many hundreds of thousands of trees, damaged properties and left tens of thousands without electricity for days on end.

On that subject, tonight looks particularly nasty once again.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_12_1.png 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_18_1.png 

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The disparity in weather at different ends of these islands has been very marked of late. You've had a couple of severe storms in Scotland over the last week or so but we've had nothing like that down here, nor did storm Arwen affect us late last year.

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Yes I heard on news it was really bad up there - stay safe and on the plus side it should provide some welcome snow to Scottish ski resorts.

On NYE we reached 14.0c at midnight NYD temperature rose to 15.5c here in Exeter.

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The EC mean charts right out to day 15 show no real change at all. Strong High just to the south (and with a reasonable amount of confidence) as weak fronts continue to pass to the north.  

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