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Brian Gaze
01 February 2022 07:41:12

Some impressive mildness starting to appear in the GEFS.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Arbroath 1320
01 February 2022 07:46:08


Some impressive mildness starting to appear in the GEFS.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Also impressive dryness in the more reliable timeframe. I can remember plenty of mild winters in the past, but I'm struggling to remember such a mild, dry winter. Really quite exceptional. 


GGTTH
ballamar
01 February 2022 07:49:39
Looks bleak for Feb cold for the foreseeable - hopefully we can get some warmer days if no real cold
Rob K
01 February 2022 08:30:06


 


Also impressive dryness in the more reliable timeframe. I can remember plenty of mild winters in the past, but I'm struggling to remember such a mild, dry winter. Really quite exceptional. 


Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


 


It's been dry here in the south but I really wouldn't call it a mild winter. There have been some exceptionally mild periods (eg Xmas/New Year) but on the whole it has been pretty chilly with more frosts than many recent winters. Seems to have been rare to open the curtains and not see ice!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
01 February 2022 08:49:19


 


Incorrect - the +0.1 and +0.2 reanalysis charts are against the 79-00 temperature base not the entire 20th century.


Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


Which doesn’t make it incorrect, I will accept. But it’s odd that you have twice as large a difference between the two months, unless it’s just rounding.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


David M Porter
01 February 2022 09:05:45


Clearly whilst the climate change reduces the chances of a cold interlude embedding over the Uk - I agree weather Synoptics can still deliver it if all the ducks align. What is a little disturbing, is that the cold snaps have been very few and brief despite the background Synoptic context. If a Eastern Pacific based La Niña and easterly QBO produce this years results, what will it be like with a moderate El Niño and a westerly QBO?


The Atlantic conveyor is modelled for the next 2 weeks by the GFS Op - again after flirting with a brief easterly at deep FI - (note this morning GFS run relegates this scenario to the control).


Clearly there is still a lot we don't know about how the weather context interplay’s with the Synoptics, but the moaning about how this winter is panning out is reasonable - since it had some promise. GW may be influencing the way the surface weather is behaving in response to the context. Who knows, but the incidence of cold snaps is reducing. Cold spells in winter also tend to cluster: (very well illustrated in the “the Weather of East Anglia” book, and I was expecting that cluster at this end of the sun-spot cycle, which is another contextual factor. Alas it appears to not have made any impact on weather this year. 


Originally Posted by: BJBlake 


Unless I'm mistaken, there was a westerly QBO during last winter (not sure if there was an El Nino at the time) and yet last winter, for northern areas at least, was better for cold than this one has been. So a westerly QBO does not always necessarily indicate a mild winter any more than an easterly QBO always indicates a cold one.


Wrt the indications for this winter there were last autumn, my recollection is that there were somewhat mixed signals right up until the end of the autumn with some signals indicating a cold winter and others indicating a mild one. Some views I remember reading were suggesting a 'front loaded' winter with the coldest weather coming early on and milder weather later.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
ozone_aurora
01 February 2022 12:54:01

What is QBO, please? 

TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
01 February 2022 13:03:44


What is QBO, please? 


Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


From the Met Office web site


 


'What is the QBO?


The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a regular variation of the winds that blow high above the equator. Strong winds in the stratosphere travel in a belt around the planet, and every 14 months or so, these winds completely change direction. This means a full cycle takes roughly 28 months, making it the most regular slow variation in the atmosphere after the cycle of the seasons'


 


An Easterly QBO this winter has weakened the Atlantic jet producing  the very anticyclonc January so totally consistent

picturesareme
01 February 2022 14:00:10

Looks bleak for Feb cold for the foreseeable - hopefully we can get some warmer days if no real cold

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Daffodils are already blooming, the crocuses are coming up, and the evenings are noticeably brighter. Spring is near.

Windy Willow
01 February 2022 14:10:08

I keep looking for rain, had to water some of my pots in the last day as my viola's and pansy's were starting to look a little sad and dry. Not had to do that before at this time of year 


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
RennesCJH
01 February 2022 14:25:11
my viola's and pansy's what's were starting to look a little sad? Leaves, presumably..

But perhaps my violas and pansies were starting to look a little sad ?
ChrisH
fairweather
01 February 2022 14:27:39


Not sure it washes to moan about too many others moaning about global warming, when you post such a lot about it. I appreciate that you don’t think that either Climate Change is happening or that it has no effect on UK weather. Both would be wrong and not backed up by the science, despite the odd cold anomaly.

I wish denial would make it go away,  but it wont. I’m sure Boris wishes denial would make his dozen Covid parties disappear, or denial that Brexit would make the UK poorer, when the real reason was because the EU was planning sweeping tax powers for off-shore investment / hedge funds, or that the attack on the UKs world leading climate change scientist at UEA that he was falsifying data was anything but a lie for the sole purpose of delaying action to curb greenhouse gases, from those that sold fossil fuels. Had they not done so, we would be 10 years ahead with tackling it. 


The evidence is irrefutable - in temperatures (effect greatest - the closer to the poles you get), wildlife, precipitation, plants and forest health, number and intensity of wild fires, reduced incidents of snowfall and in terms of diarised personal experience of the weather in the UK. The number, intensity and duration of cold spells in the UK was greater in my father’s childhood than my childhood. Now in my old age - it is considerably less than my childhood. 


Originally Posted by: BJBlake 


Excellent points and would also make a great post in UIA in general politics 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
01 February 2022 14:29:36


Some impressive mildness starting to appear in the GEFS.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yep, coupled with the dryness the golf clubs could be out again soon. 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Windy Willow
01 February 2022 15:09:58

my viola's and pansy's what's were starting to look a little sad? Leaves, presumably..

But perhaps my violas and pansies were starting to look a little sad ?

Originally Posted by: RennesCJH 


Viola's and pansy are plants are they not? Flowers and leaves are all part of the Viola and Pansy plant. Really not entirely sure what you're getting at, since both floweres and leaves are visible in my garden.


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
Brian Gaze
01 February 2022 15:36:37


 


Yep, coupled with the dryness the golf clubs could be out again soon. 


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Just been for a quick walk to get away from the PC and I noticed a number of people are jet washing their patios. Usually a job for late March or April around here.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
01 February 2022 15:43:02

I saw snow in May last year for the first time since 2012 and 2nd time I have ever seen it.


This came after one of the snowiest April's we have ever seen.


I know its anecdotal but I feel that winter is just coming later and later these days.


It would not surprise me if we saw another very cold spring.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
01 February 2022 15:45:09


 


Viola's and pansy are plants are they not? Flowers and leaves are all part of the Viola and Pansy plant. Really not entirely sure what you're getting at, since both floweres and leaves are visible in my garden.


Originally Posted by: Windy Willow 


He was criticising your addition of unnecessary apostrophes; I assume you missed the point.


🙂


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


David M Porter
01 February 2022 15:46:49


I saw snow in May last year for the first time since 2012 and 2nd time I have ever seen it.


This came after one of the snowiest April's we have ever seen.


I know its anecdotal but I feel that winter is just coming later and later these days.


It would not surprise me if we saw another very cold spring.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


There was a notable month-long cold spell from mid-March to mid-April 2008 as well, Q. That came on the back of a winter which wasn't that unlike this one in terms of lack of wintry weather during December, January and February.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gandalf The White
01 February 2022 15:47:26


 


Just been for a quick walk to get away from the PC and I noticed a number of people are jet washing their patios. Usually a job for late March or April around here.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


We’ve just walked for an hour and aside from the strength of the wind it’s a lovely sunny and mild day.


The way the ground is drying out is noticeable, there having been almost no rain for a month now.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Windy Willow
01 February 2022 15:48:59


 


He was criticising your addition of unnecessary apostrophes; I assume you missed the point.


🙂


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


You assumed correctly 


I'm not big on grammar policing unfortunately coming from a long line of dyslexics, being able to communicate and being understood is the most important to me rather than worrying about the correct use of apostrophe's etc


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
Scandy 1050 MB
01 February 2022 16:08:47


 


From the Met Office web site


 


'What is the QBO?


The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a regular variation of the winds that blow high above the equator. Strong winds in the stratosphere travel in a belt around the planet, and every 14 months or so, these winds completely change direction. This means a full cycle takes roughly 28 months, making it the most regular slow variation in the atmosphere after the cycle of the seasons'


 


An Easterly QBO this winter has weakened the Atlantic jet producing  the very anticyclonc January so totally consistent


Originally Posted by: TomC 


QBO seems increasingly irrelevant for UK Winter weather as seems to make little difference whether westerly or easterly these days ( in terms of cold weather).

Brian Gaze
01 February 2022 16:44:36


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Chunky Pea
01 February 2022 16:51:05


 


Inaccurate. December 2010 was 0.37c above the 20th century average; December 2021 was 0.32c above. Not that taking a single month is of much value in isolation.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, which is why we can't really say that the winter (in this corner of the world) is purely down to global temp trends either. This is a lazy way of thinking. December 2010 was still warmer than December 2021 globally, but we still got down to almost -18c here in the mild, maritime west of Ireland. Not something that happens everyday 


 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Windy Willow
01 February 2022 17:04:07

Gandalf your inbox is full and I have a question to ask you via PM, rather than fill this thread with OT posts.


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
mulattokid
01 February 2022 17:05:05


 


Hang on at no point did I say that I didn't think climate change was happening or that it had no effect on UK weather.


What I was saying was that the weather in the UK at the moment and the global temperature anomaly are two very different things as shown by the climate reanalysis charts that Chunky Pea posted. As shown in December 2010 we had a global temperature anomaly of +0.2c and of course it was a historical and severe cold month in the UK, whereas now we have a slightly cooler global temperature at +0.1c and we are having a fairly mild Winter, yet it seems like some posters are suggesting that this mild winter is due to global warming.


As for bringing Boris, Brexit and COVID into it I feel you are going wildly off topic 😂😂 Even just talking of climate change is kind of off topic for this thread as it is meant to be the 'Model output discussion' 


Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Well they are right to the greater extent.


When I was young, the maximun temperatrue in December or January was pretty much always 13c.  These days it goes to 14 - 15 - 16c, and more frequently.


Now.  Logic says that on average, every winter day is comparatively warmer too?


That means whole  winter days are pulled up out of the cold - average category and shunted  to the above average - warm categories.  Yes?  This year we saw the warmest ever december days too.


Re the global temperatures.  Once extra heat is in the system, it can manifest itself  at any location, or not.


December 2010 was our coldest one in 100 years within the setting of  higher global  temperatures.  As far as I recall, that December did not break any overal records of merit here.  Why did it not? Because its potential excesses were tempered by GW. The absolute heat records are falling like nine pins?  I even recall a climate scientist asking at the time "Why it was not colder than it is" in December 2010.


This mild winter is milder than it should be because of GW.


Located in West London

"Everything in life is our fault, but that's not our fault!"
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