The Scottish ski resorts would be a bit happier if that verifies. They won't have had a great deak of snow this winter, until recently.

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Hmmm, 12z winds up some extremely windy weather for Scotland in the semi reliable:-

 

Not looking particularly pleasant!

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I really hope the models are overdoing it as the impact of the recent storms on the woodland up here has been devastating, not to mention the hundreds of thousands affected by power cuts.

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I've got this to look forward to on Sunday, thankfully nowhere as strong as that above mentioned windstorm for Scotland, but nearly a whole day of strong to gale force in-your-face dirty southerly coming straight in from the Strait Of Dover just doesn't do anything for me here at my harbourside location. 

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The outlook does indeed feature some potent low pressures moving across and to our North.
Headline making winds I would think.

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I personally prefer the ICON solution. 

 

 

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Mercifully the ECM doesn't seem to be interested in it as far as this time next week is concerned . . . for now. Even showing a more healthier pressure rise in from the south so I'd take that. I'm not greedy.  Of course there are still room for further see sawing. 

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Thank God for that. It's about time that there was some pressure rise from the south for a change. 

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just hoping the gfs remains as reliable as the daily express reports of snowmaggedan hitting us, gfs often over ramps the wind speeds, , on this occasion I hope it’s wrong. 🤞

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WX summary: This from 3 days back - except that pptn gets a bit further into Europe in week 2, it wasn't new then and hasn't changed now! . Summary as ever, most of Europe slightly above normal temps, colder only on Norwegian coast and in Turkey. pptn  on N Atlantic occasionally blowing into Europe from the NW

Jet strengthening W-ly across Uk to Tue 22nd then looping north but still close to Scotland

GFS - roller-coaster stuff with LP and HP taking turns as they move E-wards across UK keeping a generally W-ly flow. LP on Mon 14th (with brief N-ly), Sat 19th, Fri 25th; HP Wed 23rd, Mon 28th (with marked S-ly) . Strongest winds from NW Mon 21st

GEFS - in the S, temps oscillating either side of norm; occasional bursts of rain (14th, 16th and later on) but not as continuous as shown yesterday. In Scotland, less oscillation in temp and mean mostly a bit below norm; rain frequent at all times, cold enough for snow on hills and sometimes at low levels.

ECM - similar to GFS with +/- a day in timing

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New ECMWF 50+1 ensemble link is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx

 

Updates aren't yet scheduled so charts may appear late or not at all.

 

 

The cut down Mean / SD / Op remains available here:

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx

 

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I really wished I didn't look

 

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Urgh, the models bring back the runner low for Friday but this time cutting through the middle of the country bringing potentially storm force winds to Southern England with 70 mph gusts at my end. And looks like no avoiding it, but guess the only saving grace is I could miss out on most of the rain here at Kent as that bypass to my north.

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ICON and UKMET have both shown this vicious low for Friday over he last 12hrs. It needs watching.

A stormy week coming up by the looks of thinks:

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPUK00_126_2.png

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A slight shift in the wx summary bringing colder air SE-wards to Hungary but otherwise little change with temps in Europe above seasonal norm and most pptn around the W/NW coasts of Europe.

Jet strong from the west until Tue 22nd, resuming Fri 25th after being disrupted by a loop to the N

GFS op - generally a mobile W-ly pattern interrupted by LPs (blink and you've missed them but quite powerful at the time) Mon 14th 985mb N England, Fri 18th 990 mb Wales, Sun 27th 965mb Shetland and later on by slower-moving HP around Tue 22nd 1035 Channel 

GEFS - In the S, temps up and down either side of norm this week; possibly doing the same next week but with a signal to become generally milder towards the end of week 2. Bursts of heavy rain to match the op week 1, somewhat drier in week 2. Similar temp profile in N though with a lower base; and pptn heavier throughout though also not as much in week 2

ECM - similar to GFS

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A little attention on the low for Friday 18th. The current track takes it across N England and it engages with an airmass just the right side of marginal.
Low risk of significant snowfall for the far North and Scotland.

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Noted Neil!

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I don't think it is any longer unreasonable to say winter is over. From a Southern perspective it has probably had less cold snaps or hopes of cold snaps than any I can remember. There is nothing of interest in the pipeline for the next two weeks. I'm not ruling out a cold spell in March but that's not winter is it!

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That would interesting in parts of Aberdeenshire! https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_126_53.png 

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But good news if you love strong winds. 



Looks like this meteorological Winter is going to have a sting in its tail, a real comedown after that wonderfully benign January.

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It's been absolutely pathetic, hasn't it? The coldest 850s I can find down here were -7C, briefly. A few times they were forecast to be lower but each and every time, even within 6 hours, "bam* - up they shot.

I've just come in from mowing the lawn, first cut of the season (last cut being in early January), and it's the same old stuff on the ensemble output - the odd teasing -10C 850 run, but so far this season they haven't even been close. Indeed, the London one is - and has been for a while now - the very textbook picture of mild Atlantic zonality.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&ext=1&type=6

 

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For somebody suffering from watering eyes I hate windy weather, especially in winter!

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I still think winter 2019/20 was more pathetic. Probably the most "utterly devoid of even a hint of cold" winter ever along with 2013/14.
The more exceptionally warm 2015/16 actually managed a decent cold snap in the third week of January and by the end was essentially just living off the very mild December to maintain its status near the top of the all time rankings

ICON EU going for something different.

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Coupled with the severe gales being hinted at, there's the off-chance of a severe blizzard there. Very unlikely to happen that way, of course, but it would undoubtably be one of the major weather events of the 2020s if it did.

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