Such a thing of beauty that LP on friday, look at how well defined the front is.

 

---

Summary charts - see any post from the last week. Some indication of slightly less cold in S Europe week 2 (though Europe generally above norm) and at the same time something a bit colder near Iceland. Rain/snow still concentrated in N Atlantic and nearby.

The story this week is going to be the windstorms on Wed through Fri

Jet v strong over the UK this week and still present through to Thu 24th, resuming Mon 28th but that soon degrading into loops

FAX cramming in the isobars from the controlling LPs 964mb E of Scotland late wed and 969mb E of England midday Fri (a daytime storm likely to be the more dangerous). Any fronts blowing through quickly

GFS op - No let-up in the W-lies until HP appears Wed 2nd March; besides the two storms above, it looks as if the period of Fri 25th/Sat 26th could be active esp in the north despite the jet being weaker

GEFS - temps up and down, either side of norm in S but from a baseline a degree or two below norm in N. Occasional rain in SE, frequent rain (snow for hills) in NW

ECM - like GFS but throws in an extra storm 980mb NI Tue 22nd

---

Now I've set up a dedicated thread, I've moved yesterday's posts which concentrated on the upcoming storms to it leaving this thread free for broader discussions of model outputs

---

Icon really sticking to its snowy theme for central areas on Friday

---

Are we sleepwalking into a bit of a snowy snap?

Icon still sticking to its guns on the 12z for Friday, with a band of heavy snow across the Midlands/North Wales and touching up towards the M62. GFS also sticking to its guns by keeping the main band over Scotland. GEM sits between, extending the snow down to Morecambe Bay/York (further south in Pennine areas)

But all show snow/wintry showers piling in behind as the cold air digs southwards, with Icon & GFS forecasting another band on heavy ppn that has snow on at least its leading edge.

 

 

---

 

Other years I would have agreed, but this would be the 3rd time we have arrived at a period of charts like this, this winter.  Both times gave very snowy options or stormy options.

 

We know how this ended up.

 

 

This winter is destined to avoid any low land snow for the UK in any significant volume.

 

The mountains of scotland might get a sky season out of this though

---

Wx summary - cold weather retreating N-wards, below average temps in Norway and Scotland, otherwise above average for most of Europe. Pptn still massing on the Atlantic, the storms blow some across to S Germany week 1 andt o the Baltic week 2

FAX best for overall picture, this morning shows wide band of strong winds from Eire to Poland Wed/Thu as Dudley moves 974mb Ni to 966 mb Sweden; then Eunice is more localised but possibly more intense, wind field across Midlands,  from early Friday 975mb SW Eire to 967 mb northern N Sea later same day and then blows itself out. It leaves behind a small Channel low on Sat, a rather flabby 1011mb Cornwall.

Jet continuing to send strong pulses across UK, briefly weaker around Thu 24th and Thu 3rd.

GFS op - leaving aside the next few days as described above, Eunice boosts Lp over Norway to give UK a strong N-ly Mon 21st soon relapsing into zonal W-lies, pressure quite high in the S at first but pushed back by LP 965mb Faeroes Sat 26th; and after some more W-lies, winter-in-spring arrives in the shape of an LP from Greenland moving to 975mb Scottish borders Thu 3rd

GEFS - in the S, temps up and down for a week with some heavy rain from time to time; then drier and milder (despite above) mean 3/4 C above norm with some more rain by Thu 3rd. In the N and esp NW temps stay down with occasional milder bursts until Sat 26th, then milder; and plenty of pptn at all times.

ECM - same pattern as GFS

---

I'll leave the next three days to the dedicated storm thread and pick up the output from there - though some - not all - models are suggesting another spell of windy weather for the south on Sunday.

Wx general outlook continues the theme of an active Atlantic pushing any cold air steadily back NE wards, and allowing heavy rain out at sea to spread into European coastal countries  from time to time - Germany week 1, France week 2, Uk both weeks.

 Jet pulsing strong and W-ly to about Thu 24th; then a lull before resuming strong and direct across France from Mon 28th

GFS op - after this week, LP in Channel on Sunday moves to NE Scotland Mon 21st 980mb with more NW-ly gales; then an unremarkable Zonal W-ly until Tue 1st when LP 945mb S of Iceland introduces a large and persistent area of cold air into the central Atlantic, spreading across to W Europe by Fri 4th and including a vicious-looking small LP 975mb Thu 3rd in Biscay

GEFS - in the S a complex up-and-down set of temps either side of norm throughout, some specifically high rain totals this week, then a break and more appearing Sun 27th onwards. Scotland temps also up-and-down but baseline a bit below norm; rain (snow for hills and maybe low ground at times) continual in NW, it's less heavy next week in E/NE.

ECM - like GFS but also includes a brief N-ly Thu 24th

---

Strong and consistent warming being modelled in the stratosphere Whether it turns out to be a final warming remains to be seen. The Berlin start charts also showing strong wave 1 and 2. Putting this altogether we could possibly see some eye popping wintry charts showing up the first few weeks of spring.
Typical I know but the first two, three weeks of March can still deliver laying snow even to low lying inland areas of England and Wales especially if accompanied by cloud cover.

Will be interesting to see if any signs of a change crop up - the 6z Op is relentlessly zonal throughout with frequent periods of strong winds pretty much countrywide. 

Totally different winter overall this year but previously very zonal Febs have seen fairly abrupt changes at the start of March, albeit at least one of those was from wet, mild and windy in Feb to dry and warm in March rather than anything colder. 

---

GFS control finally shows some decent blocking - beginning of spring could be glum!

Heavy snow in parts of the north on Friday

Storms left to the dedicated thread.

For the next 2 weeks, temp nabove average in Europe esp the E (though still on the edge of freezing), just a bit of below average hanging back in Scotland and Norway. Rain/pptn on N Atlantoc blowing in across UK, to the N and into germany week 1, more to the S and into France week 2

Jet continuing close to or across UK for the next two weeks, weaker around Sat 27th, resuming on a track just to S of England

GFS op - zonal W-ly and rather windy throughout; LP to the N dominating Mon 21st, Thu 24th, Tue 1st (deep over N Scotland), and something winding up Sat 5th; HP to the S Tue 22nd and Fri 25th

GEFS in the S - temps oscillate quite dramatically either side of norm, settling milder after Sun 28th; bursts of rain at first then drier until March 1st then quite wet. In Scotland, likewise oscillating but not so dramatically and again becoming milder in the end, rain/snow throughout esp in NW

ECM - similar to GFS but LP at end of its run (27th) while still out on Atlantic looks as if it might head further S

---

what a very stormy run this 12z GFS is... sucession of very windy weather.

As ive said in the past, what one month is over compensating in, the next will balance it out. January was a very settled and benign month...

makes sense.

---

I'm wondering why the Atlantic is acting like a jerk when things are on the wane at the stratospheric level (even some warming over us in a week). Too much of a polar vortex intrusion over the Atlantic causing a temperature contrast? I guess once the Atlantic is in full pelt, it takes weeks for it to wind itself down.

---

This time is not normal to be like this as you expect in Autumn months, plus getting heatwave setup in wrong seasons outside summer months and cold snowy set up Speing and summer months.  

 

I thought March was a more  traditional time for storms than February which is often quite a quiet month? Due to the bigger temp gradient between poles and equator in the Spring.

Anyway I'm off to my underground concrete bunker/storm shelter now so see you all in 24 hrs!

---

It looks like March has come in much earlier this year, coming in like a lion!

Anyway, I was wondering what the root cause of this intensely stormy cyclonic episode. I suspect no answer.

 

I'm so not an expert, but assume the warmer Atlantic SSTs are a factor.

There's like a huge area of low pressure well to the north of the UK, which seems to keep spinning off shortwaves, which undergo cyclogenesis to become distinct features over the warm Atlantic en route to Blighty. 

---

February is normally a dry month.
In my lifetime the only notably wet editions I can recall are
1990, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2014, 2020 and now possibly this one. All of those were average to mild I might add - mild and wet seem to go hand in hand in Feb

Those large low there are not suppose to sit there all the time and should be allowance for HP cells to cross there every time LP leave like Az HP should move as well to allow LP enter every time. If that was the case here will have huge variety of weather like Toronto as they changes a lot from passing lows and highs cels than nasty blocked weather here. Most blocked weather here are very bad all the time and wreck seasonal months.

Summary temps slowly becoming milder from the SW, with most of Europe above norm (esp in E, though still cold there, norm is v cold; Norway remains the only significant area below norm). Pptn concentrated on N Atlantic, blowing in across UK and into N Europe (yesterday if was expected to affect France, but that's gone)

FAX continuing strong W-ly after departure of Eunice with fronts zipping across UK

JET more or less directly across UK, occasionally looping N to Shetland until Fri 4th when it slackens a bit

GFS strong zonal W-ly; less evidence of HP interrupting the flow than yesterday and deeper LP rolling through across N Scotland on Mon 28th and Sat 4th.

GEFS in S temps up and down but never far from seasonal norm for long; milder period at end of run no loner in evidence, now just average. Some peaks of rain this week, wet weather resumes generally Sun 27th. Scotland temp profile similar but baseline a degree or two lower; pptn likely at any time and snow row figures imply snow on the hills as a regular feature.

ECM similar pattern to GFS but HP to S more prominent until Fri 25th and then throws in an extra LP near N Scotland

---

Another notably unsettled GFS op run, with a near carbon copy of today's storm showing up in 10 days time albeit strong winds pretty much UK wide. Unlikely to verify as shown but given the projected setup the chances of another notable storm affecting somewhere in the UK are very high at the moment imo.

Outside of the wind, plenty of relatively short interludes of cold air, so ongoing chances for snowfall Northern England and more particularly Scotland, chiefly over the higher ground but probably to lower levels at times too. 

Essentially no chance of seeing snow IMBY but plenty going on and no real signs of anything more settled on the horizon.

---

Thankfully the 12z is coming up with a different solution with high pressure over the UK in the 7-9 days days range. Of course all a long way off in forecasting terms and probably end up retaining the maritime theme in subsequent runs but this current run for now is a sight for sore eyes. 

However there are still a couple of wet and windy spells this weekend and into the first half of next week to get through but shouldn't be anything like Eunice as far as the South East is concerned. 

---

That was a bit of a surprise that GFS 12z run just when I thought we were nailed on for cold zonality until well into March. We shall see if it is the start of a trend or a rogue run...

---