Nothing to talk about Tally. Everything that is said has all been said before. Model analysis is bland, boring and generally gets watered down as we approach T+0. In terms of reliability they are no further forward than they were 20 years ago, apart from the 3 to 5 day period where I feel they have improved.

Gone are the days of picking something interesting up at 192-240 and watching it come in. 

Gone are the days of east coast winter and Spring northerlies. Gone is the mid winter easterly. Gone are the days of frost persisting in the shade all day. Gone are the days of dark foggy November and December days. Gone are those late winter polar lows that would present a white snowy early April morning. Gone are the days of summery plumey thunderstorms drifting across the UK after a roasting day.

 

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Yeah basically the weather has been very boring almost continuosly for the last year or so, and even if something interesting does appear in the models it's always watered down massively when you get nearer the time. 

The model performance has also been very poor recently which makes checking/ commenting on them beyond about t+150 pretty pointless. For example there were signs of an Easterly later next week possibly with -10c 850s but now it is massively watered down to pretty average boring conditions. 

I still find tracking the weather/climate interesting but the weather itself hasn't given us much to go at recently unfortunately.

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Yes, as others have mentioned, we're more or less stuck in a no man's land in terms of the weather at the moment. Nothing particularly warm coming up, and of course the easterly that is being modelled is coming at a time of year when the cold has moderated to the point where it will only bring raw-feeling nothingness. Hopefully in the east wind, many western areas should do okay for sunshine, though it will be a different story across much of the east.

Still at least both the GFS and ECM are pretty firm on thing looking mostly dry for the foreseeable, so rain and flooding shouldn't be an issue really.

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Wx summary outlook: The mass of cold air over E Europe continues to break up as temps increase generally, but its slow clearance means that SE Europe is not warming up there as quickly as it should . Iceland and Norway are colder in week 2, little change for the UK. Rain persisting in N Atlantic incl NW Scotland; the other damp patch over Spain and the Med moving up into C Europe.

Jet: southern branch through the Med/N Africa at first, slowly losing its impetus; the rather fragmented  northern arm of the jet is today shown as having more effect on UK, with pulses close to or over N Scotland Wed 16th, Wed 23rd & Sun 27th.

GFS op: slack LP over Uk at first; by the end of the week LP squeezed out between HP from Azores and the Baltic, the HP over Sweden 1050mb dominating around Sat 19th as LP over Spain declines; the UK gets a SE-ly flow. A new HP develops over the Atlantic as the Baltic one declines with the UK in a col ca Wed 23rd but then the HP from the Atlantic moves in 1030mb Sun 27th and that in the Baltic is replaced by strong N-lies.

FAX will have nothing to do  with any Azores HP and shows stalled fronts over the UK this week with LP centre over England Wed 16th, and only converges with GFS with the establishment of the Baltic HP on Sunday

GEFS mostly mild this week (only average at first in N, a dip with some rain for all Wed/Thu 16th/17th) cooler around Wed 23rd, becoming milder with op & control as warm outliers by Sat 30th some 8C above norm, but not in all ens members. Otherwise only a little rain, and that mostly later on and in the W

ECM similar to GFS but allows some development of a trough Thu 17th

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Interesting to see how cool and unsettled the Med is at the moment, in general - all the way from Spain to Cyprus. Forecast for Malaga for this week is more akin to a wet week in the Lake District! It's been quite a dry winter in Spain so any rain now will be very welcome before the summer drought sets in.

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Yes tell me about it if and if the winter hasn't been a fail this is a prime example.

Two weeks ago there was an easterly on the cards but this failed and the cold air and snow went to SE Europe including Greece and Turkey as well as Jerusalem last week there was meant to be an easterly for this week and this was watered down and up until yesterday there was an easterly forecast although not a BFTE but the -6 to -8c uppers were knocking on our doorstep and now this has been watered down and now become a south easterly and as ever the cold air goes to SE Europe and the UK is left with nothing, last night the OP run went for a northerly at end of run and now that has been wiped off and now we are left with nothing! My point is that there is nothing too warm or nothing cold - JUST BORING nothingness! Even in summer we miss those thunderstorms and heatwaves and end up with nothing and the main heat and storms go to Europe as ever.

 

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Ideal from my point of view would be about 4 or 5 posts commenting on what I've posted - and they don't have to agree. If there are many more posts than that, it's probably a sign to start a dedicated thread.

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Its always like this as the winter starts to abate ("Winter" Lol)

 

Im loving the feel of the sun between 11-2pm at the moment, really vibrant.  My grass is loving it - its now going that lovely shade of early spring vivid green as the growth kicks in

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Yes, there was a day last week when it actually didn't feel cold outside for the first time this year.   Looking forward to a few more pleasant and dry days to shrink the large puddles and dry up the mud on the footpaths.

 

I have been keeping a close eye on the models as they've been toying with advecting a little cold pool west/NW towards the British Isles, but unlike winter, now I'm hoping it stays away.   It looks like turning cooler at times but nothing too serious at the moment.  Of course there's another reason for not wanting cold weather and that's the current price of heating oil.....

The latest ECM output shows this for a week's time, which is not particularly cold and only brief.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022031412/ECM0-168.GIF?14-0

 

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The models always watered down on purpose every time for the UK but not other countries and now they watering up further cold spell for Nicosia, was supposed to return to mid to high teens but now back down to 11C maximums and might end up the coldest March ever recorded and coldest month for winter 21-22 season.  Meanwhile here it much welcome sunny days after Wed with up to mid teen temps.

Summary temps show a broad band of above average temps from Spain to NE Russia and below average from Greece to Caspian Sea in week 1 which should begin to right itself as the cold air shows a distinct withdrawal to the NE in week 2 (Note that e.g. for N Russia it is quite consistent to be above average but still below freezing at this time of year). The dry areas shift around from day to day - France to Belarus week 1, France across to Caspian week 2 incl W Med unlike yesterday.

Jet - the main action is still across N Africa, and apart from a current brief pulse for the UK, the northern branch doesn't fire up until Fri 25th, even then staying well to the N of UK.

GFS op - UK under col between Azores and Baltic HP for now; these two HP centres join forces by Fri 18th and the combined centre is 1045mb Norway Sun 20th with SE-lies for Uk. The process repeats over the following week - col Tue 22nd, new HP Sat 26th but this time the HP centre stays further W, around Ireland, allowing first, strong N-lies down through Scandi and in final frame Thu 31st LP over Denmark with cold NE-lies here.

GEFS - a cool day in the S with rain  either Wed 16th or Thu 17th, otherwise becoming mild  or v mild for rest of week, cooler for a bit around Mon 21st, then long period of quite good agreement (less agreement for Scotland) in ens members with mild weather to end of month at which point suggestions of cooling. Very little rain after this mid week.

ECM treats the col on 22nd (see GFS) as a distinct LP to the SW without much strength in the Azores HP at that point; then the succeeding HP remains over Germany 1035mb, not Ireland, preventing N-lies developing at least before Fri 25th

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The prospects of a chilly spell of weather in late March appear to be fading. If anything it is looking quite warm for some parts with plenty of dry weather. The first 20C temp spikes are showing in some of the London Ens members for about 10 days time.

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I read that our friend from over the pond Judah Cohen is going to talk about a very interesting development with the PV splitting. Update due tomorrow. 

looking at the forecasted strat profile for end of month do not be surprised to see HLB up over Greenland with northerlies and a strong cross polar flow into the UK.

Certainly one to watch even if it will be end of March, early April. 

 

 

Oh joy 

 

2/3 months too late, at a time when I don't care to see snow (because even if it does stick, it can't stay around anyway and depressingly melts - I'm a sucker for the chaos that deep snow brings to the country, especially when it hangs about for a few weeks)

I'm now looking forward to summer and hope its a cracker - warm, sunny and dry for prolonged periods

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Matt Hugo already pessimistic, easterly QBO and La Nina persisting = not good apparently. 

 

 

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I'll take his pessimism as a very good omen!

 

(and, knowing Matt Hugo, next week he'll be pointing to some other teleconnection and telling everyone we could be in for a 1976-style drought)

 

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Summary shows the Spring warm-up progressing steadily but slowly from the SW of Europe, with some hanging back over Turkey where temps are markedly below norm. Scandinavia OTOH although still cold is above norm for the time of year. Rain persisting in the N Atlantic; also in the Med week 1 moving E to concentrate over Turkey week 2. Otherwise dry over nearly all Europe including UK, the very driest area gradually moving W to the UK.

Jet - main branch is consistently over N Africa and later the Med. Also rather more activity n the N Atlantic with a narrow stream to be seen affecting Iceland and Norway

GFS op - currently LP over Iberia with weak trough extending towards UK giving way to large HP 1045mb N Sea Sat 20th and S/SE-lies for Uk (maybe containing a few showery troughs) before another HP centre moves in from the SW also N Sea Fri 26th. This flattens out and moves first W and then N allowing N-lies over Europe which unlike previously are not forecast to affect UK.

GEFS - temps up and down to start with but a long spell of mild weather Mon 22nd for a week after which a cooling trend. Very dry. 

ECM similar to GFS

 

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The main theme today is dry. Not much rain after today in the GFS Ens right through to the end of the month from London to Belfast.

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Summary charts; still on course to become milder across Europe as a whole in week 1, but though the trend continues for W Europe in week 2, the cold air mounts a push-back in the east. A large area from UK to Urals dry in week 1 but this narrows to a band from Shetland to Ukraine in week 2 with pptn around its edges (W Med, Spain, NW UK, Russia)

Jet currently in two streams, one over N Africa and a more fragmented one around Iceland. Little action for a few days from Fri 25th, then most of the action resumes just south of the UK Wed 30th getting closer

GFS op: HP developing over N Sea 1045mb N Sea Sat 19th drifting E-wards with some showery troughs running N across UK; HP back over N Sea Sun 27th  (deep LPs symmetrically positioned over Atlantic and Russia) but this HP is weaker and pushed back as troughs move in from the Atlantic, shallow Thu 31st, something a bit stronger approaching Sat 2nd.

GEFS - temp up then down then from Tue 22nd a long period of mean temp a little above, norm not much in the way of outliers in the ens members though as ever the spread widens as time goes by. Not much rain around though the showers above show up in the E and late on there's something in the SW at the end

ECM similar to GFS though the HP on the 27th shows signs of pulling away N-wards, rather than weakening in situ

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A few hints in the ECM and GFS mid to long range that a more Northerly influenced few days is possible towards the end of the month. Might not come to anything of course and probably unwelcome for many if it did but would make the April CET guess a touch more challenging if nothing else.

Other than that and possible rainy blip circa 21st March aside it's looking very pleasant down here for the next couple of weeks - mostly mild or even warm at times and little rain. 

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It might just be me, but am I seeing a small area of 528 heights over SE England and then moving north, attached to the small occluson? this occurs on the last 3 frames of the latest Fax at 84, 96 and 120 hrs. Or are my old eyes deceiving me?

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It will make for a chilly day across the SE on Sunday with early afternoon temps of just 6 or 7c as that cold pool moves over. What is interesting about this cold pool is that it starts its life near Germany tomorrow, reaches the SE of the UK Sunday, moves up towards Scandinavia by Tuesday before returning back to original birthplace in SE Europe by next Friday. 

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I saw that but what does this 528 heights mean? is this a trough?

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