Wx summary outlook: The mass of cold air over E Europe continues to break up as temps increase generally, but its slow clearance means that SE Europe is not warming up there as quickly as it should . Iceland and Norway are colder in week 2, little change for the UK. Rain persisting in N Atlantic incl NW Scotland; the other damp patch over Spain and the Med moving up into C Europe.
Jet: southern branch through the Med/N Africa at first, slowly losing its impetus; the rather fragmented northern arm of the jet is today shown as having more effect on UK, with pulses close to or over N Scotland Wed 16th, Wed 23rd & Sun 27th.
GFS op: slack LP over Uk at first; by the end of the week LP squeezed out between HP from Azores and the Baltic, the HP over Sweden 1050mb dominating around Sat 19th as LP over Spain declines; the UK gets a SE-ly flow. A new HP develops over the Atlantic as the Baltic one declines with the UK in a col ca Wed 23rd but then the HP from the Atlantic moves in 1030mb Sun 27th and that in the Baltic is replaced by strong N-lies.
FAX will have nothing to do with any Azores HP and shows stalled fronts over the UK this week with LP centre over England Wed 16th, and only converges with GFS with the establishment of the Baltic HP on Sunday
GEFS mostly mild this week (only average at first in N, a dip with some rain for all Wed/Thu 16th/17th) cooler around Wed 23rd, becoming milder with op & control as warm outliers by Sat 30th some 8C above norm, but not in all ens members. Otherwise only a little rain, and that mostly later on and in the W
ECM similar to GFS but allows some development of a trough Thu 17th
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Chichester 12m asl