If there no normal April warmest maxes of 23-26C that will be another disaster as we need to see very strong warmth for wildlife and plants to start growing proper.  This weekend 20C really nothing to me as it just a tad above average for mid-April.

Still watch them sometimes, but it's so frustrating when they are getting the temperature wrong by about 5c just a day out.

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I believe the mid April average maximum temperature is nearer 10-14c North of Scotland to South Coast. 20c (68f)  is not be sniffed at in my opinion Georgy boy. 

As for next week the 12'z so far tend to want to drop the core of  lower pressure to our SW or central France favouring more of an easterly feed thus producing haar dly any excitement for east coast dwellers.  

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I would be happy with “average” to be honest. Two days this month have reached double figures here and none in the past week*. It looks like the next few days should be a little milder up here thankfully. Overall it doesn’t look too wet which is something at least. As for 20°C, that would be around average high for late May in the SE I think? (Or never here!)

*Thankfully I had a week in the pleasant spring sunshine in Rome so I cannot really complain!

P.S. I see what you did there Steve. 

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BBC South doubling down on a fine Monday

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Agreed that why they not advance and worse than you see forecasts in 3rd world locations.  I still expecting to see 20-21C being reached in SE and here around 19-20C in the midlands at the weekend. Sun now very high as August so should be easily reached that levels.

and it was snow with 11dc temps last week on BBC graphics which was bugging me.

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WX summary; slightly above norm for the W edge of Europe but still cool further E in week 1. In week 2, a notable withdrawal of cold air to the far NE Europe (though becoming locally v cold there) while patches of warmth begin to spread N of the Alps, one of which is over the Low Countries. Week 1 dry in the N Sea with a circlet of rain around it (for the UK this means the W coast), week 2 rain in mid-Atlantic across S Britain and stretching patchily across to the Balkans.

Jet; fragmentary for N Atlantic and UK at first; the fragments increasingly located across France from Thu 21st and eventually joining up there. Also from the 21st for a few days a strong flow across N Africa.

GFS op; pressure quite high at first - LP develops 1000mb Hebrides Mon 18th with trough S-wards to cover all UK and the LP centre moves down to Biscay Wed 20th. New LP off W Ireland Fri 22nd pushing troughs E-wards across Britain, and the LP with its troughs all moving S so from Tue 26th mainly affecting England.

GEFS; mild to Tue 19th, cool to Sat 23rd; then mild again in S, close to norm in N. (Note - at this time of year the GEFS average mild can mean warm days and cool nights) Rain on and off from Mon 18th to Sat 30th.

ECM; the trough on Mon 18th doesn't get far S-wards and the LP in Biscay develops in situ from Wed 20th without a boost from the Atlantic, and deepens with a more definite E-ly for England from Fri 22nd and pressure staying higher for Scotland than proposed by GFS

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In the short term, GFS and ECM are quite different. The former indicating low pressure over the UK more and hence more rain. But ultimately the way each model progresses they succeed in flushing any remaining cold air north west away from mainland Europe so that even an Easterly will advect warm air across the UK. I fear that would just mean lots of low cloud picked up over the North Sea which thankfully we have largely avoided so far this spring .....

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WX temp summary; no dramatic changes, but a bit of a see-saw with warmth working N over the Balkans balanced by something a bit cooler moving S from Iceland. Week 1 very dry from Belgium up to Norway with patches of rain NW, SW and SE of that area. Week 2 only dry in very far E, significant rain for France, Balkans, E Russia.

Jet - small fragments around the UK, something more significant coming and going across N Africa

GFS op - ridge of HP SW-NE across UK weakened by LP off NW Scotland from Mon 18th but the LP not penetrating far until Sun 24th when it slips SE and arrives Portugal Tue 26th with E/NE-lies setting up over England. Eventually HP sets up to W of Ireland with N-lies esp for E coast from Fri 29th.

GEFS - mild at first mean dropping to norm from Tue 19th and staying there with differences in ens members becoming noticeable from Mon 25th (incl op & control as v cold outliers in N, even modest figures, 5s and 6s, in the snow row). Generally a little rain from 19th onwards, rather more from 25th, but in NW rain at any time.

ECM - LP penetrates earlier and starts moving SE across UK as early as Wed 20th and then (12z at time of posting) setting up over S France with greater effect for E-lies (and wet weather?) for England

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WX temp summary as yesterday; no dramatic changes, but a bit of a see-saw with warmth working N over the Balkans balanced by something a bit cooler moving S from Iceland. Week 1 very dry from Belgium up to Norway with patches of rain NW, SW and SE of that area. Week 2 only dry in very far E, significant rain for France, Balkans, E Russia. Perhaps the temp see-saw less pronounced; and add England to the patches of rain in week 2.

Jet also much the same as yesterday

GFS; current HP splits into two centres, one over Norway, one in the Atlantic off Spain leaving UK in a col. By Friday 21st LP from N Atlantic moves into the slack pressure of the col to become 1000mb Ireland, deepening over the weekend of Sun 24th, and then drifting across England and up to Norway. By Thu 27th the col is reversed, the UK sitting between LP centres, one by the Azores and the other in the Baltic. On Monday 2nd these centres have linked up into a broad trough with axis across S England.

GEFS; rather boring? mean temp dropping back to norm in a couple of days and staying there for the next fortnight - ens members spread as time goes on but less than usual (op is one of the coldest towards end). Rain around on most days from Mon 18th but no great amounts except Scotland gets a one-off bonus burst at first.

ECM; similar to GFS though from Sun 24th the LP doesn't drift onwards but links up with more LP on the Atlantic and (12z at time of posting) deepens off SW Ireland Mon 25th

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WX summary; yesterday's see-saw is halted; week 1 much as at the present, near norm even mild for Atlantic countries, below norm in band from Spain to (esp) Balkans and N Russia, warm around Caspian; development in week 2 is for resurgence of cold air from N Russia down to the Caspian leaving W Europe unmoved. Week 1 dry for E Britain up to Scandi with rain around the edges of this area; week2 this dry area just about hanging on with rain from Germany SE-wards (a shift from yesterday's forecast when the wet patch included UK and France)

GFS op; shallow trough of LP for UK Mon/Tue 18/19th,brief pressure rise before Atlantic LP slips SE-wards to Spain 1000mb Fri 22nd with E-lies for all, drifting back NE-wards and filling as pressure rises over UK 1025mb Fri 29th. That HP cell moves N and E-lies are back Mon 2nd, witha hint of colder weather from the N on Tue 3rd.

GEFS; temps soon back to norm and staying there through to Tue 3rd, though perhaps a little cooler later on, and a little rain at almost any time

ECM; similar to GFS

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WX summary; band of  below average temps from Spain to C Europe to N Russia still in place for week 1; warmer over Balkans but cooler over Finland week 2. Dry over Scandinavia week 1 with areas of rain all around and indeed stretching down to the Med week 1; drier on Atlantic week 2 and a narrower area of rain Spain - Alps - Finland. Wet for England week 1, damp for all Britain week 2

Jet - nothing much near UK until beginning of May when loops appear, quite strong but from random directions in the region of UK

GFS - trough extending S over UK nearly gets pinched out midweek, but revives as LP over Biscay 1000mb Fri 22nd which with HP 1035mb Iceland gives E-lies for all. This LP/HP system shuffles around a bit; by Fri 29th LP is 1015mb E France and HP is 1030 mb Rockall with winds turning to the NE, quite strong at times, and finally on Wed 4th LP is 995mb Czechia and HP 1025mb W of Ireland with N-lies esp on East Coast.

GEFS - mean temps near norm through to Wed 4th but some v cold outliers appearing near the end esp in NE. Small amounts of rain at any time, rather more in SW.

ECM - develops differently from GFS after Sun 24th as LP moves N from Biscay to England looking like a shallow showery trough but then converges with GFS again by Thu 28th, though the pressure gradient is not as steep and winds lighter.

 

P.S. Hat-trick; 3 days without reply!

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It looks as though the lack of rain in the SE (are we allowed to call it a drought yet?) is set to continue for the forseeable.  The plants in my garden are definitely short of water, and I've had to resort to copious use of the hosepipe to get them to put on any fresh spring growth.

The EA Water Situation Report shows that for the Medway area the rainfall in March was 48% of LTA, and for the last 3 months was 61% of LTA. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067738/Kent_and_South_London_Water_Situation_Report_March_2022.pdf

(I was intending to post this reply before I saw DEW's comment above about no replies for 3 days, but I'm pleased to be able to report my continuing interest in the content of this thread.)

 

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Looking at the model charts at the moment gives me something of a "If only it was December/January/February" feeling about them.

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I think the outlook looks very average and uninteresting for the next 2 weeks or so at least.

But then again the weather has been mostly uninteresting for the last year or so which I guess doesn't help generate many comments on here...

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Climate had changed a lot here lately, we no longer get what we should be getting on each season so less interest nowadays.  Any interesting weather show on the charts had been taken away 100% and hit us just bland cloudy, wind and rainy and extreme temperate temperatures all year.  Thanks for your input anyway.

Classic springtime scenario with high pressure giving NW Scotland the best weather but dragging diabolical sea fog, drizzle, and NE winds down the coast here, it will struggle to top 10C until well into May

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WX summary: week 1 below norm in Spain and separately from central Europe up to N Russia while Scandi is above. Week 2 shows Spain warming up while Iceland and Sandi cool down. Not much change for UK temps. Dry in Scandi and UK week 1, also N Africa , with rain between these areas. In week 2 the dry area over Scandi shrinks and that over N Africa tentatively moves N with more rain blowing in from the Atlantic to affect UK

Jet: weak loops around Britain in the first week of May - until then most of the action is well to the south

GFS op: current trough over Britain superseded by area of LP moving SE-wards to Biscay 1000mb Fri 22nd, moving N and filling so the initial E-lies weaken and become confined to England to Fri 29th. New LP then moves SE from Iceland and sets up near N Ireland for the following week, close enough for strong SW-lies around Wed 4th. Pressure remains fairly high over W Europe and yesterday's forecast of N/NE-lies has disappeared.

GEFS: in the S temps near norm or from time to time above until the beginning of May when cooler, led by op & control output; dry at first, small amounts of rain from Sat 23rd (rather more in SW). in the N, temps always nearer norm (but the NE is also cooler in May) and small amounts of rain at any time esp in NW

ECM: The LP after Fri 22nd doesn't fill and is 1000mb N France Sun 24th with E-ly gales for England and eventually becomes a trough from mid-Atlantic to Baltic, which does however fill and drift S-wards but always anchored to a deep LP over the Azores, and with little evidence of HP over Europe.

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GFS showing some classic 'IOIWW' charts with wasted synoptics for late April - but they're mostly easterlies, so not all bad for MBY. The 850's are rarely that cold, either, being around -2c to +2c most of the run.

 

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I think serious drought looks like the problem this Spring, much as last year. Last rainfall here 10 days ago and only 15mm for the month so far and unlikely to increase much for the next two weeks. Better than the zero rainfall of last April but still becoming a problem I fear, especially for farmers and gardeners.

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We invested in huge water butts last year, we can store 1000l now. But have already started to use them.

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Without seeing figures, I'd be confident that here the rainfall totals are below average for the month - but not desperately so. We've had regular rainfall (Sunday night most recently) and the soil is moist.

I'd say generally it's been perfect early-season growing conditions in this region.

 

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Easterlies are great as they deliver blue skies from the Continent as the flow passed mainland Europe and short sea tracking so cloud not a issue only if veer to NE then we get cloudy mornings then clear skies late morning onward.  There was absent of Spring easterly last year especially in May.

It depends where you are and what time of year it is. Easterlies in spring are notorious for being very dull across much of the eastern half of the country. The West usually does better because the Pennines block a decent amount of the cloud.

The best easterlies around here tend to come in early summer, I find.

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