ooh how easy it is to get northerlys and frigid air, now its April

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Judging by ECM ens at least there's a reasonable signal for the middle third of the month to be fairly mild, before cooler temps for the time of year going in to the final third.

Not one of those pleasingly warm Aprils but not looking particularly wet, which seems to be the main standout for the last few years - can't remember the last time we had a wet April locally.

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The 06z GFS looking good for Easter. It should be dry although not sure on cloud amounts

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?modelrun=06&charthour=12&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na

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Ens look increasingly mild from next week and fairly dry for the bulk of UK...could be onto a half decent Easter break..

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WX summary still has Spring on hold for N & C Europe including UK, these regions below norm for the next 2 weeks; any milder weather along Med coasts and real warmth off by the Caspian. Compared to yesterday, the 0C isotherm has made a comeback in the far N; and the UK looks marginally colder in week2 than week 1. Patches of rain scattered across Europe in both weeks, except that UK is extremely dry week 2.

GFS Op - LP to the SW makes an approach to to UK towards Tue 12th, enough to promote S-ly winds but also to suppress the initial ridge of HP suggested yesterday. HP re-asserts itself as a N_S ridge over western UK Fri 15th and hangs around for the forecast period but goes visiting- definite centre over England Mon 18th, to SW Eire Thu 21st, to Scotland Mon 25th. Always a risk of N-ly or (later on) NE-ly winds for Eastern UK so perhaps warm in the sun but cold at night, hence the disappointing WX averages?

Fax has the Atlantic LP closer, actually centred over England 998mb Tue 12th linked to trough extending back to Atlantic

GEFS - in the S becoming very mild Mon 11th, declining to norm more quickly than yesterday by Fri 15th then close to norm until Mon 25tth at first a little above then a little below (control is more pessimistic). Bits and pieces of rain but not as absolutely dry in all runs as WX suggests. Less extreme mildness in W and almost not at all in Scotland, the latter having a bonus(?) burst of rain Wed 13th and in a few runs big totals later.

ECM - similar to GFS at first though like FAX brings a weak trough all the way across UK Tue 12th. The following HP (in the 12z at this time) stays further S with a W-ly regime for the UK on Mon 18th.

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 WX summary temps not changing much - mild in SW and SE of Europe, the cold patch in the middle only gradually shrinking. (E Turkey having an epic in week 1 with local freezing temps only a short distance from a hot Iraq). Rain scattered across Europe in week 1 while a dry area develops from UK down to Sicily; in week 2 UK retains the dry area while more definite areas of rain show up in the central Med and E Baltic. Iceland continuously drenched/snowed on.

Jet - very little action in the N Atlantic in the next two weeks, just a suggestion of it winding up in final frame Tue 26th

GFS Op - LP off SW Ireland getting a little closer but filling by Fri 15th ( Before that FAX shows quite a mess of fronts moving N-wards in its circulation on Tue 12th) . HP well established over UK for the Easter weekend, fading but still holding off LP to NW and E  until Fri 22nd (the latter occasionally threatening a N/NE-ly for the E coast in the meantime). LP near Iceland comes to dominate Sun 24th extending a trough S-wards over UK later.

GEFS - in S, very mild by Tue 12th,  mean slowly declining to seasonal norm by Fri 22nd and staying a little below, but with control as a v cold outlier and op as a very warm one! A burst of rain at first then not much until Fri 22nd when most ens members show small amounts. Mildness less extreme in N & W but otherwise similar.

ECM - The most noticeable difference from GFS is that the Easter HP is positioned further to NE so E-lies for S England and S-lies for W Coast of UK. Then shallow LP from Atlantic appears over Cornwall Tue 19th while HP retreats to Norwegian Sea.

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Indeed, especially last year  when I recorded precisely 0.0 mm which maybe affected birds and other wildlife as much as the cold weather. But with 10mm so far and mixed temperatures growth of plants and trees looks more normal this year. Just don't want a cold end to April as the Blue Tits have now completed nest building so eggs will be incubating then - all perished last year.

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Looking at the GEFS there's not much rain forecast for the London and SE. Combined with the generally low rainfall for the last three months here, we could see the trees being delayed from coming into leaf by the shortage of water, as has happened around here for at least the last couple of years - matching the dry Springs as noted by Hippydave above.

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  I agree.  Two such Aprils (May was cold too) would pretty much finish off what we have left of our wildlife, by reducing numbers to such low levels.

The field crickets survived last spring, but in reduced numbers. They have only just been recovered to minimul sustainable levels.  The interview linked to is with Mike Coates, whom I know. He is the project manager at Farnham:

field cricket – UK Wildlife (uk-wildlife.co.uk) 

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Could be another one of those dramatic flips in temperature over the next couple of weeks from 20c later this week to possibly sub 0c minimums next week based on GFS.

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10-day summary still showing a modest approach to warming up. As yesterday, below norm in C Europe week 1 (W Russia down to Greece) with a suggestion that this below norm patch moves W-wards (Norway to Alps) in week 2. Week 1 dry in Tyrrhenian Sea and rain all around it (esp NW Britain); week 2 a big patch of heavy rain from Atlantic to Alps and up to W Russia, with the UK on the northern edge of this.

Jet has little action near UK until Tue 19th when it develops across France and N Spain with the occasional loop bringing it nearer UK

GFS op - current LP off Ireland collapses into slack LP N Scotland. Then N-S ridge of HP from Fri for Easter weekend but (unlike previous) not holding up as shallow LP 1005mb appears over Scotland Easter Monday (18th), enlarging to cover all UK Thu 21st then drifting S before a new LP sets up W of Ireland Sun 24th. This is linked to a trough extending E-wards so no warm southerlies. Doesn't look as wet to S of UK as the summary charts.

GEFS - (v) mild to Mon 18th, dropping to norm with fairly good ens agreement to Thu 21st, after which mean stays near norm but ens members diverge. After a wet day today, dry-ish for a time then rain common but not intense in most runs from Mon 18th for most of England and Wales, a day or two earlier in Scotland, a day later in E England.

ECM - As GFS to Mon 18th when the shallow LP stays out to the NW and the centre stays there though pressure drops generally over the UK to Thu 21st. By Fri 22nd the two models have converged again.

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Not looking quite so good now for this weekend, not the 20c that the forecasters have hyped up, but more like 16c and overcast perhaps. Next week also not looking good at all, very disappointing.

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A steady as you go April with a gentle warming in line with the advancing season in light breezes this week. All very useable and good for the growers.

Some afternoon showers and cooler next week if that trough settles near us. A night frost cannot be ruled out either as the upper air could be quite cool at least for a time.

There is still enough consensus from me across the NWP, particularly the UKMO suggesting the settled conditions could hang around next week with any showery weather potentially confined to the far west and SW. 

 

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Looks OK to me - After a warm start it becomes more normal with a risk of showers. At least it's not last year!

Indeedy Dave. Its not last April. That in itself is a blessing. 

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I'd certainly take last April over this with the bright sunny days and frosty nights. Now we are getting cool, grey and wet days which isn't good for anyone really.

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Easter looks good in the S/SE.

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WX summary; below-average temps in no hurry to leave C Europe. Uk a little above norm in week 1, looks a bit cooler in week 2. Dry from Spain to Norway week 1, areas of rain on either side; in week 2 a shift with broad area of rain Atlantic - UK - Alps - both sides of Black Sea.

GFS op; pressure rising for a while to match week 1 dry area above; from Mon 18th LP moving ever close to W Ireland and displacing HP N-wards (though a better outlook for Easter Monday than yesterday, the LP holds off a bit longer) . By Fri 22nd a wide trough of LP from main centre still in Atlantic but now stretching across S Britain to Ukraine while pressure remains fairly high over Scotland. The trough slowly fills and in last frame Fri 29th is reduced to small LP 995mb Brittany

GEFS:  mild to Mon 18th then mean drops to norm and stays there, perhaps a little milder around Wed 27th. A few v cold outliers in the N later. Some rain in most runs from 18th onwards. 

ECM; brings LP in to affect Scotland Mon 18th (poorer outlook for Easter Monday, take your pick!) where it hangs around with trough extending S-wards. Then a new LP from Iceland moves in, first to Scotland Thu 21st traversing down to Spain Sat 23rd. Quite unlike GFS with pressure still quite high to E & W of UK

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Starting to look a bit "ditto" like with the general outlook.

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Washout Easter Monday?

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GFS 6z has gone downhill in a big way since the 0z and now looks much more like the ECM, only with the GFS LP centre over England rather than further north.

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Last April was sunny it is true but so far it has been quite sunny here, not too much rain and decent temperatures. Last April was a disaster for wildlife and gardeners here - literally 0.0mm rainfall and very cold.

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Looks like the TV forecasters may have to backtrack then. They seemed overly confident in talking up the prospects for later this week and into next week.

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Yes, it's looking increasingly likely that low pressure will edge in later on Sunday heralding an unsettled phase from Monday.

The positioning of the cut off low is up for grabs as to where it goes from Tuesday.

GEM,UKMO, ECM have it lingering either close to our NW or to our SW ensuring a fairly mild, often bright but potentially showery set up away from coasts whereas GFS 6z wants to drop the energy into Europe ensuring a west is best set up next week with central and eastern areas rather cool, cloudy and uninspring.

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Wondering why you still watch them with the poor 3rd world forecasting tools and wrongness in here, I have not watch them for long time and TV license free as well so only look out from the window to see what outside is like.  Models had been useless as if was in the past Ceefax, Teletext, newspapers and non-internet stuff we would know that Easter weekend will not be good.