Today's WX summary temps given an upgrade from yesterday with week 1 only well below norm in Spain and N Russia and in week 2 warmth working in from SW and SE leaving Finland area as the cold patch. Even some springlike stuff across France just abouts affecting SE UK. Band of rain in week 1 from Atlantic across France to Balkans and Belarus, pushing further S to Turkey week 2. Dry for UK week 1, very dry week 2 including much of N Europe. Water shortages threatening?
Jet not doing anything to speak of near UK for next two weeks, main action is over Spain.
GFS op forecast like yesterday for week 1 but changed for week 2. Atlantic LP dives S E to Biscay 1000mb by Fri 22nd with E-lies for UK. It moves N still 1000mb Belgium Mon 25th and then fills. Pressure rise significant over UK by Thu 28th becoming centred Shetland 1035mb Tue 3rd weakening and drifting a little E-wards later allowing SE-lies, but still no LP close by.
GEFS temps near norm - perhaps a little cooler around mid-weeks Wed 27th and Wed 4th (control a v cold outlier at the end with quite a wide spread by then) with bits and pieces of rain in most ens members from time to time. Could well be locally colder on E coast but not showing up on available GEFS locations.
ECM is similar to GFS but suggesting that HP will set up to W of Scotland rather than to N.
Originally Posted by: DEW