theweatheroutlook

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picturesareme
08 July 2022 10:40:17
Striking difference in temperature between 20 miles down here. Left Portsmouth half hour ago from the north of the city via train to Chichester and it must be a at least 3C cooler.
ballamar
08 July 2022 10:51:04


 


In fact GFS seems to want to go for the sustained but not record breaking heat option. S England top temps from today 29, 27, 29, 31, 33, 35, 27, 28, 30, 33.


And zero precipitation up to 246h


Originally Posted by: TimS 


i suppose we could build our own heat island during this so locally could be underplaying the temps. But as you say could just be a long hot spell with a few very hot days

Ally Pally Snowman
08 July 2022 11:01:40


 


 


Look at the bottom graph on this link: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202207080000&epsgram=classical_15d_with_climate&lat=51.4712&lon=-0.452714&station_name=Heathrow


 


The red line is the 99 percentile from climatology (basically a 1 in 100-year event for any given day). The fat part of the bar is the 75th percentile of the model run. So on the July 18th, the 75th percentile is about 3 degrees above the "1 in 100 year" level. Something like 35% of the model runs are above that level.



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


ECM is definitely sniffing something hot!


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
08 July 2022 11:04:59

Yesterday was the first of what looks like being well over a week of 40C+ days across Iberia, with 40.6C at Moron de la Frontera in Spain.

GFS max modelled temperatures for Portugal and/or Spain from today:

42C, 44C, 43C, 43C, 44C, 44C, 40C, 40C, 38C, 40C.

That's what "may" be headed our way.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Top temperature at 1000Z (noon local time in Portugal) was 35.4C in Evora, Portugal.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gusty
08 July 2022 11:08:07

Do we reckon that 20-25c 850Hpa temps in Summer are the equivalent to -15c- -20c 850 temps  in winter ? 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Gavin D
08 July 2022 11:27:14

Level 3 heatwave alert issued for parts of the south from 9am Monday to 9am Friday. The met office are also warning of hot or very hot temperatures from late Friday 15th which will last into the following week


 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/?tab=heatHealth&season=normal#?tab=heatHealth

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2022 11:29:39


Do we reckon that 20-25c 850Hpa temps in Summer are the equivalent to -15c- -20c 850 temps  in winter ? 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


They certainly are in terms of their elusiveness. They love showing up in FI and then disappear as we get closer to the date 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
chelseagirl
08 July 2022 11:34:39


Level 3 heatwave alert issued for parts of the south from 9am Monday to 9am Friday. The met office are also warning of hot or very hot temperatures from late Friday 15th which will last into the following week


 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/?tab=heatHealth&season=normal#?tab=heatHealth


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


As much as I love heat, and welcome this period of weather, my blood sugars struggle, sometimes severely. Have to drop my insulin down quite a bit. Is there anyone else on here has the same problem?

The Fenlands of Cambridgeshire
moomin75
08 July 2022 11:49:51
Without wishing to antagonise anyone, has anyone seen Matt Hugo's latest tweet?
I'm not getting at him in any way, but he seems to think the rise in AAM was much lower than anticipated and he expects a more unsettled second half of July.
To be honest, who knows, but Matt seems to be quite convinced that this spell won't last too long.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Jiries
08 July 2022 11:55:10


 


They certainly are in terms of their elusiveness. They love showing up in FI and then disappear as we get closer to the date 


Originally Posted by: GezM 


It been a week now that showing some charts of 40C and over without dropping or removed so it mean they are onto something and with France so hot UK cannot miss it.  If France was in the low to high 30's heatwave then understanding yes that UK will get low to mid 30's at best.   It almost into reliable range as today Friday mark 1 week left for serious very hot conditions to arrive.


Come on 40C do it this year.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 July 2022 12:11:18

Without wishing to antagonise anyone, has anyone seen Matt Hugo's latest tweet?
I'm not getting at him in any way, but he seems to think the rise in AAM was much lower than anticipated and he expects a more unsettled second half of July.
To be honest, who knows, but Matt seems to be quite convinced that this spell won't last too long.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I wouldn't pay him any attention. He's not known for his accurate weather prognoses.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
08 July 2022 12:28:27

I think someone must have stolen the Stevenson screen at Leconfield - it’s reporting 29.4C at 1pm.

Highest legit figure seems to be 26.1 at St James’s Park.


38.5C and rising at Evora in Portugal. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
08 July 2022 12:46:57

Image


51+C in France for two consecutive days on P4


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
08 July 2022 12:50:06

Actually the GEFS P4 shows a scenario that is less than 2C shy of the all time world record of 54.0C in France of all places.


And yes the 56.7C is BS in my opinion, faulty thermometer 100 years ago.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Rob K
08 July 2022 12:52:31


Actually the GEFS P4 shows a scenario that is less than 2C shy of the all time world record of 54.0C in France of all places.


And yes the 56.7C is BS in my opinion, faulty thermometer 100 years ago.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I thought the 56.7C in Death Valley had been pretty rigorously authenticated? The previously long standing record from Libya (57.8C IIRC) was complete nonsense though (wrong end of the max indicator being read by a novice observer, wasn't it?)

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 July 2022 12:53:53


I think someone must have stolen the Stevenson screen at Leconfield - it’s reporting 29.4C at 1pm.

Highest legit figure seems to be 26.1 at St James’s Park.


38.5C and rising at Evora in Portugal. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


27 in a few places now: Headcorn, Bournemouth, Exeter. When somewhere (legit) gets to 28C I'll officially declare this heatwave OPEN. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Quantum
08 July 2022 12:54:11


 


I thought the 56.7C in Death Valley had been pretty rigorously authenticated? The previously long standing record from Libya (57.8C IIRC) was complete nonsense though (wrong end of the max indicator being read by a novice observer, wasn't it?)


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yeh I think the 56.7C is BS too for similar reasons, expect it to be decertified in the next decade or so. Just not credible. Something like a 5 sigma event when all surrounding weather stations recorded a 1 sigma event. Simply do not believe it.


54.0C is the actual world record.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Chunky Pea
08 July 2022 12:59:49

850hPa 20c isotherm even further west on the last frames of this morning's ECM. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Hungry Tiger
08 July 2022 13:29:29


Image


51+C in France for two consecutive days on P4


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Rob K
08 July 2022 13:36:52
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=298&y=553&run=6&ext=1&mode=7&sort=1 

Seville has already hit 39.3C (hourly) and Evora 39.6C (max to 1300Z). 40C must have been breached by now I reckon.


 


Heathrow and Pershore 27.2C level at the top in the UK

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
08 July 2022 13:47:40


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=298&y=553&run=6&ext=1&mode=7&sort=1 

Seville has already hit 39.3C (hourly) and Evora 39.6C (max to 1300Z). 40C must have been breached by now I reckon.


 


Heathrow and Pershore 27.2C level at the top in the UK


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It goes above 52C which you can see on meteologix 6h max. Unfortunately I can't give you a more precise figure.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Rob K
08 July 2022 13:56:02


 


It goes above 52C which you can see on meteologix 6h max. Unfortunately I can't give you a more precise figure.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


The next highest run on that day is 42.6C so I think you could call it a statistical outlier 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2022 14:02:05

I had thought we might start the heatwave today, the threshold here is 27c for three consecutive days.  It had risen quickly to 25c before midday but it’s still at 25c.


It’s actually a perfect summer’s day with some light high cloud and a gentle breeze.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
WanderingLonelyAsACumulonimbusIncus
08 July 2022 14:02:41

Without wishing to antagonise anyone, has anyone seen Matt Hugo's latest tweet?
I'm not getting at him in any way, but he seems to think the rise in AAM was much lower than anticipated and he expects a more unsettled second half of July.
To be honest, who knows, but Matt seems to be quite convinced that this spell won't last too long.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


He is a knowledgeable person but I rarely find that his forecasts / musings verify any better than others. Just another option to consider.

Malcolm UserPostedImage
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 July 2022 14:45:02
Bournemouth and Northolt now at 28C. I officially declare this heatwave OPEN.

Hopefully somewhere will sneak a 29 or 30 later.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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