The heat looks slightly moderated to me in general.

0Z is a big reupgrade, on the 18Z it felt like things were on the verge of falling apart.

 I should not bank on it.too much fluctuation.

If this is the heat being “moderated” then God help us all.

Doesn't the beebs data come from ECM? I note again today ECM is still not keen on 40c

This is the chart for 15z Tuesday, you’re right that temps are less dramatic. 

Note though this shows 2m temp, not max 2m temp like with the other models , this could make a difference.

You are probably better off using the high-res models such as UKV. 

ECM doesn’t do proper max temps so its apparent maxes need a couple of degrees adding on. Like CMC (GEM).

Arome has 39C tomorrow and is generally spot on. Arome also has 32C in London today so suspect that’s our max. 26C in Charlwood so far, so not a rapid heating kind of day. Thicknesses and upper air increasing through the afternoon.

We actually had 4 days earlier this week . 30.1c, 32c, 31.7, 30.1.

The sheer geographical depth of extreme heat is extraordinary. Temperatures at or above the all time record in a swathe from Whitby and Blackpool in the North to Portsmouth and Dover on the South and everything in between.

Only the SW missing out.

It is absolutely incredible and doesn’t feel real. 

I always suspected these extremes would make their presence felt in the UHI of London, and the SE/Home Counties first and foremost.

To see 37C on the MetO app for Manchester is just absolutely bonkers, and we know there’s a chance it will get slightly higher than that.

In climate change terms I’m hoping this will make more people wake up and smell the coffee. 

Tmrw will be a 33c at 9am in Biggin Hill kind of day.

Tuesday it could be 36c at 9am . Madness 

By Wednesday morning there will be nobody left in doubt. We will have to go through some pain for a few days to achieve it. 

Still looks like it will just about exceed 40C on Tuesday in Cambridge. Heathrow should come close too (say 39.5C)

On Wednesday morning there will be the same old people saying it was hotter in 1976. They’ll say “this was just a 2 day wonder, 1976 went on for 2 weeks”.

See Australian bushfires and politics.

06Z is giving Scotland quite a bite at heat too. 33C on Moray coast, with some downslope warming could see a cheeky 34C in Kinloss?

Welsh national temp likely to go, twice, probably somewhere like Hawarden.

I thoroughly recommend this PWS.

No silly over-exposure readings and operated by a really nice chap named Steve.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Indeed, it's much slower to lift the trough compared to the ECM, allowing for even stronger warm advection. I wouldn't dismiss it.

When I look at the forecast for Sheffield for this Tuesday; it's 42 C from BBC Weather but 38 C from the Met Office. Why the disparity? Where do they get their sources from?

It wouldn't matter. We could get to 50C and there would still be those who deny, imagine it's all some kind of a conspiracy or think it's all just natural variations in the climate. What this might do is to convince the 'waverers', those who still have their doubts as to the reality of the situation. The tin-foil hat brigade you can do nothing about and should hopefully become so isolated as to be completely irrelevant.

True. We haven't had much rain this spring or indeed summer so far bar some hit and miss thunderstorms/deluges and IMBY I think it's been pretty warm most of the time. Just back from a supermarket visit and the verges and grassy parts of Weymouth look '76ish. In other words parched yellow. I assume the Poole and Bournemouth savannahs look the same.

Indeed, this is one of the highest risks of this heatwave and in that aspect it's probably better that it's happening during the week and not on the weekend, when too many morons are out.

Ill be following that closely, thanks, given my son will be baking at St Martin’s Plain on his CCF camp.

If you fancy seeing what’s happening up in the downs then here’s mine, at Little Bursted Vineyard https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICANTE35