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bledur
17 July 2022 09:05:46


 


They are late, too much 18Z injected into their veins.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 The heat looks slightly moderated to me in general.

Quantum
17 July 2022 09:06:10


 


 The heat looks slightly moderated to me in general.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


0Z is a big reupgrade, on the 18Z it felt like things were on the verge of falling apart.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
bledur
17 July 2022 09:07:58


 


0Z is a big reupgrade, on the 18Z it felt like things were on the verge of falling apart.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 I should not bank on it.too much fluctuation.

Joe Bloggs
17 July 2022 09:11:05


 


 The heat looks slightly moderated to me in general.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


If this is the heat being “moderated” then God help us all.




Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Gavin D
17 July 2022 09:16:26


 


They are late, too much 18Z injected into their veins.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Doesn't the beebs data come from ECM? I note again today ECM is still not keen on 40c

Joe Bloggs
17 July 2022 09:20:23


 


 


Doesn't the beebs data come from ECM? I note again today ECM is still not keen on 40c


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


This is the chart for 15z Tuesday, you’re right that temps are less dramatic. 


Note though this shows 2m temp, not max 2m temp like with the other models , this could make a difference.


You are probably better off using the high-res models such as UKV. 



 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 July 2022 09:20:37


 


 


Doesn't the beebs data come from ECM? I note again today ECM is still not keen on 40c


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


ECM doesn’t do proper max temps so its apparent maxes need a couple of degrees adding on. Like CMC (GEM).


Arome has 39C tomorrow and is generally spot on. Arome also has 32C in London today so suspect that’s our max. 26C in Charlwood so far, so not a rapid heating kind of day. Thicknesses and upper air increasing through the afternoon.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
17 July 2022 09:24:17

Today looks like ending up a fairly bog standard hot day (31C) after looking in some recent runs like getting close to 34C.

Still, possibility of 4 30+ days in a row, coming after 3 days earlier this week. So certainly 6, possibly 7 30+ days in this event as well as 3 days of 29C.

When people say this is a 2 day event they forget that the event itself has been running for some time.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


We actually had 4 days earlier this week . 30.1c, 32c, 31.7, 30.1.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 July 2022 09:24:29


 


If this is the heat being “moderated” then God help us all.



Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


The sheer geographical depth of extreme heat is extraordinary. Temperatures at or above the all time record in a swathe from Whitby and Blackpool in the North to Portsmouth and Dover on the South and everything in between.


Only the SW missing out.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Joe Bloggs
17 July 2022 09:27:42


 


The sheer geographical depth of extreme heat is extraordinary. Temperatures at or above the all time record in a swathe from Whitby and Blackpool in the North to Portsmouth and Dover on the South and everything in between.


Only the SW missing out.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


It is absolutely incredible and doesn’t feel real. 


I always suspected these extremes would make their presence felt in the UHI of London, and the SE/Home Counties first and foremost.


To see 37C on the MetO app for Manchester is just absolutely bonkers, and we know there’s a chance it will get slightly higher than that.


In climate change terms I’m hoping this will make more people wake up and smell the coffee. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 July 2022 09:29:33
Will be interesting to monitor PWS tomorrow and Tuesday. Get a sense of the patterns. I’m particularly interested in East Kent of course. Hoo, Sheppey, Sittingbourne/Faversham areas could well benefit from the late upper air bounce.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
17 July 2022 09:39:00

Tmrw will be a 33c at 9am in Biggin Hill kind of day.


Tuesday it could be 36c at 9am . Madness 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2022 09:47:08


 


It is absolutely incredible and doesn’t feel real. 


I always suspected these extremes would make their presence felt in the UHI of London, and the SE/Home Counties first and foremost.


To see 37C on the MetO app for Manchester is just absolutely bonkers, and we know there’s a chance it will get slightly higher than that.


In climate change terms I’m hoping this will make more people wake up and smell the coffee. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

It’s scary!  For the first time ever, we have a 40c forecast here for Tuesday on the BBC app!    It’s 26c now and I’m uncomfortable, although it’ll no doubt be more humid due to the few spots of rain we had around 6am.


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gusty
17 July 2022 09:48:38


In climate change terms I’m hoping this will make more people wake up and smell the coffee. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


By Wednesday morning there will be nobody left in doubt. We will have to go through some pain for a few days to achieve it. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



xioni2
17 July 2022 09:48:43

Still looks like it will just about exceed 40C on Tuesday in Cambridge. Heathrow should come close too (say 39.5C)

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 July 2022 09:55:13


 


By Wednesday morning there will be nobody left in doubt. We will have to go through some pain for a few days to achieve it. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


On Wednesday morning there will be the same old people saying it was hotter in 1976. They’ll say “this was just a 2 day wonder, 1976 went on for 2 weeks”.


See Australian bushfires and politics.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
17 July 2022 09:55:46
To have two successive days beat the record would be pretty amazing.

All time temperature record lasted 79 years from 1911 to 1990. Then 13 years to 2003, 16 years to 2019, then potentially 3 years to Monday and then 24 hours to Tuesday!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 July 2022 09:57:30


Still looks like it will just about exceed 40C on Tuesday in Cambridge. Heathrow should come close too (say 39.5C)


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


06Z is giving Scotland quite a bite at heat too. 33C on Moray coast, with some downslope warming could see a cheeky 34C in Kinloss?


Welsh national temp likely to go, twice, probably somewhere like Hawarden.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Gusty
17 July 2022 09:58:10

Will be interesting to monitor PWS tomorrow and Tuesday. Get a sense of the patterns. I’m particularly interested in East Kent of course. Hoo, Sheppey, Sittingbourne/Faversham areas could well benefit from the late upper air bounce.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


I thoroughly recommend this PWS.


No silly over-exposure readings and operated by a really nice chap named Steve.


https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11


 


 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



xioni2
17 July 2022 10:01:52


 06Z is giving Scotland quite a bite at heat too. 33C on Moray coast, with some downslope warming could see a cheeky 34C in Kinloss?


Welsh national temp likely to go, twice, probably somewhere like Hawarden.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Indeed, it's much slower to lift the trough compared to the ECM, allowing for even stronger warm advection. I wouldn't dismiss it.

ozone_aurora
17 July 2022 10:02:16

When I look at the forecast for Sheffield for this Tuesday; it's 42 C from BBC Weather but 38 C from the Met Office. Why the disparity? Where do they get their sources from?

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2022 10:03:03


 


By Wednesday morning there will be nobody left in doubt. We will have to go through some pain for a few days to achieve it. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


It wouldn't matter. We could get to 50C and there would still be those who deny, imagine it's all some kind of a conspiracy or think it's all just natural variations in the climate. What this might do is to convince the 'waverers', those who still have their doubts as to the reality of the situation. The tin-foil hat brigade you can do nothing about and should hopefully become so isolated as to be completely irrelevant.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2022 10:06:47

Today looks like ending up a fairly bog standard hot day (31C) after looking in some recent runs like getting close to 34C.

Still, possibility of 4 30+ days in a row, coming after 3 days earlier this week. So certainly 6, possibly 7 30+ days in this event as well as 3 days of 29C.

When people say this is a 2 day event they forget that the event itself has been running for some time.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


True. We haven't had much rain this spring or indeed summer so far bar some hit and miss thunderstorms/deluges and IMBY I think it's been pretty warm most of the time. Just back from a supermarket visit and the verges and grassy parts of Weymouth look '76ish. In other words parched yellow. I assume the Poole and Bournemouth savannahs look the same.


Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
xioni2
17 July 2022 10:09:00


Lots of more of this sort of thing to come over the next three days! (Especially once the desiccating winds set in tomorrow...)


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Indeed, this is one of the highest risks of this heatwave and in that aspect it's probably better that it's happening during the week and not on the weekend, when too many morons are out.


 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 July 2022 10:10:02


 


I thoroughly recommend this PWS.


No silly over-exposure readings and operated by a really nice chap named Steve.


https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Ill be following that closely, thanks, given my son will be baking at St Martin’s Plain on his CCF camp.


If you fancy seeing what’s happening up in the downs then here’s mine, at Little Bursted Vineyard https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICANTE35


 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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