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Tom Rance
19 July 2022 12:19:28


Extraordinary. Time for climate change deniers to shut up for good. There can no longer be any debate that AGW is real. Maybe global warming denial should be made a criminal offence - these people represent an existant threat to the future of humanity and the urgent need to tackle climate change.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


I'm sorry, but a spell of albeit exceptionally warm weather in one tiny bit of the world does not prove anything at all. 


Global warming denial a criminal offence? What else would you like to outlaw? Thinking naughty thoughts?! Come on - the whole scientific community should be reliant on questioning debate. Shutting down alternate viewpoints merely exacerbates the problem.


Tom
Cambridgeshire, Ouse Valley, 40ft AMSL.
Tim A
19 July 2022 12:19:44
Staggering that we have breached 40c in 2022.

Local records being smashed around here. 36.3c here, 35.7c Bingley, 36.5c Bramham, 35.9c Bradford, 36.2C Ryhill.
Sheffield 37.0c it looks like.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2022 12:20:25

It feels hotter than yesterday which reached 35C in the garden. It's now 'only' 32.6 with the front not that far away in Lyme Bay and a very hot humid, heavy feel to the air. Not at all like yesterday. The humidity I guess.


 


Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
John p
19 July 2022 12:22:17

Absolutely staggering

Just sit and reflect for a moment. Think yourself back to June. Moomin claiming summer was over etc…

But that aside, just think back to then. If someone had told you the UK was going to smash 40c this summer or any summer soon you’d have probably thought they were nuts

We’ve had such a long and well modelled (important to mention that) build up to this it almost feels normal. It’s not. It’s deeply concerning, but also bewildering

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


What is interesting is the really significant events (today and December 2010) are often really well signposted in advance. 
This heat started appearing in the models nearly two weeks ago I think? 


Camberley, Surrey
John p
19 July 2022 12:23:20

Grass fires breaking out in Croydon.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Wetherspoons beer garden?


Camberley, Surrey
Matty H
19 July 2022 12:23:48


 


What is interesting is the really significant events (today and December 2010) are often really well signposted in advance. 
This heat started appearing in the models nearly two weeks ago I think? 


Originally Posted by: John p 


Indeed. Roughly 2nd July


Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2022 12:25:30


 


Indeed. Roughly 2nd July


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


GFS has been superb on this spell. Not Arome's finest hour though.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
19 July 2022 12:25:52


I think the front is further west,.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I think it is right over me. Brisk straight northerly, while dark mid-level cloud moves up directly from the south, as lower fractus moves directly west to east.


And about 3 drops of rain has fallen. 


 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Bolty
19 July 2022 12:26:12


Extraordinary. Time for climate change deniers to shut up for good. There can no longer be any debate that AGW is real. Maybe global warming denial should be made a criminal offence - these people represent an existant threat to the future of humanity and the urgent need to tackle climate change.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


Whilst I think the people who totally deny human-caused climate change are conspiracy nuts, outlawing AGW denial is equally as nuts. It just gives them more ammunition. And as Tom says, where would we stop?


Look at what's going on in the Netherlands - farmers and other professions rioting because Net Zero will ruin their businesses. Imagine what would break out if we banned AGW denial and any questioning of carbon policies. It's a very slippery slope, IMO.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Russwirral
19 July 2022 12:27:53


 


I'm sorry, but a spell of albeit exceptionally warm weather in one tiny bit of the world does not prove anything at all. 


Global warming denial a criminal offence? What else would you like to outlaw? Thinking naughty thoughts?! Come on - the whole scientific community should be reliant on questioning debate. Shutting down alternate viewpoints merely exacerbates the problem.


Originally Posted by: Tom Rance 


Tom 


 


Agreed maybe the original post is a bit OTT... but this record heat stretches over several or more countries and the entire western european continent.... 1000s kms long. 


 


This is not a tiny part of the world


 


 


 


Matty H
19 July 2022 12:28:21


 


GFS has been superb on this spell. Not Arome's finest hour though.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Unbelievably good. To not only pick out this sort of temperature specifically, but also synoptically it’s been astonishing    


Quantum
19 July 2022 12:29:10

Yorkshire/Lincs suddenly 35-37C widespread.


Its happening guys. Buckle up.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
19 July 2022 12:30:14


 


GFS has been superb on this spell. Not Arome's finest hour though.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Know thy strengths.


AROME is the first model you go to in rain/snow situations. It is pretty much always spot on at deciding which kind of precip will fall.


Not that good at other stuff though.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Chunky Pea
19 July 2022 12:30:48


 


GFS has been superb on this spell. Not Arome's finest hour though.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


On a global scale, the GFS has not been preforming all that well lately, but it really does seem have a knack on picking up on longer term trends on this side of the Atlantic. Hats off. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Brian Gaze
19 July 2022 12:31:01


 


GFS has been superb on this spell. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


If you watch the Met Office videos you'll see they make use of GFS along with their own and other models. The idea that they don't look at it is is one of many statements posted on weather forums which are unsubstantiated nonsense. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
19 July 2022 12:31:15


 


I think it is right over me. Brisk straight northerly, while dark mid-level cloud moves up directly from the south, as lower fractus moves directly west to east.


And about 3 drops of rain has fallen. 


 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Like cold fronts in the middle of texas, deprived of any moisture!


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
bledur
19 July 2022 12:31:16

Heathrow at 40c, it is all the Jet Exhausts. If there had been that much Tarmac and Jet Exhausts in 76 it would have been 43c

nsrobins
19 July 2022 12:31:41


Thought this brilliant piece of music was apt for today (end of film ‘Knowing’)
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Quantum
19 July 2022 12:32:15

Oh god. 38C now appearing in Lincs.


SE seems to have plateued.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Chunky Pea
19 July 2022 12:33:15


 


Know thy strengths.


AROME is the first model you go to in rain/snow situations. It is pretty much always spot on at deciding which kind of precip will fall.


Not that good at other stuff though.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Never found Arome to be that great to be honest. It overdoes convective potential a lot I find. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Quantum
19 July 2022 12:33:55


 


Never found Arome to be that great to be honest. It overdoes convective potential a lot I find. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Its bad at that too.


But as I say, for precip type, its the best model there is.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Tom Rance
19 July 2022 12:34:14


 


Tom 


 


Agreed maybe the original post is a bit OTT... but this record heat stretches over several or more countries and the entire western european continent.... 1000s kms long. 


 


This is not a tiny part of the world


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Absolutely take your point, but still, one event does not prove a theory.


There may well be global trends at play here, but I doubt ANY of us here have access to enough data or knowledge to draw sensible conclusions. What we are doing is responding to what we see being reported and what we observe. I would argue that what is reported is very heavily biased towards a certain viewpoint, and is therefore likely to be very influential to many. I am not making an argument either way, but what I strongly oppose is silencing viewpoints however crazy they may appear to an individual, simply because they do not conform to their own individual narrative. There are some key historical figures who put this into practise, and I am not sure any of us would want to live under a modern version of their rule!


 


Anyhow back to a monumental UK weather day - 39.6c! Wow.


Tom
Cambridgeshire, Ouse Valley, 40ft AMSL.
NickR
19 July 2022 12:34:32
36.5°C in Durham. Astonishing,
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2022 12:34:32

Charlwood 39.9c ,Kew 39.6c at 1pm


Lots over 39c


Met office twitter 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2022 12:35:41
Jumping up again in Pett Bottom: suddenly 37.9C after a plateau of an hour.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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