76 on steroids this morning from GFS 0z. About a week of 100f next week . 

UK maxes from today:

28, 31, 32, 28, 25, 28, 30, 31, 36, 37, 37, 37, 38, 38, 33, 28

LOL

As someone who detests summer, that's about as bad an outlook as I could imagine. The only saving grace down here is that it involves an ENE'ly / NE'ly airflow, so the North Sea will take the edge off.

No sign of much interest in the EPS ensembles, though, but I remember last time they were slow to cotton on - GEFS led the way on that one.

Like August 2003 would be nice.  Must be a U-turn on this week cool down to 20C to now mid 20's.

WX summary continues to move the heat about; the only part of Europe below average temp  is the Norwegian coast. The cooling for Germany noted yesterday has been reduced and move further east, while France and Germany are now hot in week 1, and this heat crosses the Channel in week 2, pushing all the way up to N Scotland, and also crosses the Baltic for a heat wave in S Sweden. Rainin Scandinavia and W Russia week 1, fr area around the Channel. The dry area switches to C Europe week 2 with rain as before but additionally from the Atlantic down through Britain and into France (if true, the combination suggests impossibly humid)

Jet near Scotland for a couple of days, then not much until Mon 16th when a suggestion of a cut-off LP near Brittany (echoes of yesterday's GEM, posted by Beast)

GFS Op - Mid-Atlantic LP tomorrow pushing in some (humid?) SW-lies before brushing past Scotland while HP again builds from the SW 1030 mb Eire Fri 5th. For the following week it re-forms into the usual (for this summer) ridge stretching NE to Norway but with continental LP always threatening the S. Atlantic LP arises on Sat 13th and takes a tour round S Britain before re-grouping 1000mb Scotland Wed 17th

GEFS - warm Fri 5th and again for a long period either side of Fri 12th (though the Op which has been exciting people is a monstrously hot outlier up to 12 C above norm; the mean is a more modest 5C above), Despite mention of LP above and the WX chart, no rain for the S in the next fortnight and not a great deal for Scotland either.

ECM - slower to re-instate the HP (Sun 7th rather than Fri 5th) and by Thu 11th the HP is retreating quite quickly SW though the forecast period doesn't go far enough ahead to show any LP on the Atlantic

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

Scarily, that has a 26C mean isotherm over England in week two. I've been watching these since the turn of the millennium and I've never seen the like - there was a tiny bit of 24C in the last heatwave at one point, but nothing like that 26C.

the scale used to be in 5C increments and I remember the 25C isotherm over the UK briefly during the 2003 heatwave. 

After leading the way last time, you wouldn't back against GFS at the moment.

ECM is much, much cooler still.

It's in the charts, so worth watching. But WX is AFAIK based on the Op run which as noted above is a spectacularly hot outlier amongst the ens members

Talk of heavy tropical downpours for southern England during the first half of the week, but BBC Teletext 5 dayer has mainly dry with just the odd isolated shower. Who has it right? Time will tell.

06z not as hot as 00z obviously, but general pattern is similar

We had one yesterday evening which was much needed for the grass, but I doubt any moisture got down very far below the surface

Hopefully get something today, but that could be our lot for a while

Not a patch on the 00z but still very hot period showing up again 

See here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/driest-july-in-england-since-1935 

In fact even more relevant would be this one: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2022/7/2022_7_Sunshine_Actual.gif 

GFS control gets very close to the extreme heat pool again

UKMO looks a hot run even in the shorter term. Pulling in some heat for sunday

Looks like it, though I doubt we will reach 40 again, probably 36 at best

ECM doesnt have such a good heat pool to tap into

The one I’m looking at has 5 days of 30C and none above 35. Am I looking at the wrong run?

Thanks for the link Doc, surprised how very high sun hours where I am between orange and white.  Might be the newer sun recorder now pick up brightness levels even no sun disk showing which I see here on some days.  My old recorder I set only to collect actual sunlight and no recording when bright cloudy weather.

Today hit 10 hours of sunshine and not seen very blue skies since 19th July.  Looking good from the latest models.