some of the GEFS appear to delay the breakdown and drag up the extreme uppers

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Thursday also has 35c that would be 4 days in a row hotter than any day in the 80s!

 

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Seem to be more ens that prolong it, Pert 11 looks fun

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I assume at least an Amber warning, perhaps Red when you factor in fires which are very likely across the SE

 

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Not much of a breakdown on the control

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Pert 11 has pretty much all of Europe roasting

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Control very different to the Op. Heat still going to next week

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ECM shows a nice "hole" with virtually no rain getting into the Channel Islands before Thursday - better news for my holiday!
(Not that I would say no to some nice night-time thunderstorms!)

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Yes it seems to have crept under the radar a bit. Like a frog in a pot of boiling water the 850s have gradually been increased from the mid-high teens up to 20C or more and suddenly we're looking at several days of mid-30s.

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You'd think so, this heatwave seems low key though compared to July. 

 

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Looks like another low humidity heatwave too. Pretty low dewpoints. Not quite as lip chapping as July’s but mid to high single figures most afternoons.

Here in the Med we have a DP between 22-24C and even at 32C it’s pretty horrid.

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I think we may a lot of big fires this week.

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What has to happen to get thunderstorms here Southern UK (apart from what was the usual breakdown from the south or continent?

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As the heat has increased the thunderstorm rate has decreased markedly imby, in the past decade.

Good. If it has to rain, which of course it does, rain at night when I don’t have to see it. No thunder to wake me up either would be nice

The rest of this week looks absolutely amazing!!!!

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Last year we seemed to have thunderstorms most weeks! Never known so many as we got last year.

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Same here in Ireland. Two hot, humid summers in a row but very little thunderstorm activity. Last half decent thunderstorm I can recall was last May 

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I remember around the mid 60's window watching dry lightning (Essex). Wow what a light show that was, I've not seen it since...

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I’ve always claimed we’re the thunder storm capital due to our location just East of the Pennines.  We usually get a lot but this year we’ve had none!  We’ve heard distant thunder on a couple of occasions in early summer but that’s all.

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Last few JMA charts have been quite rainy next week

12Z GFS looks primed for yet another plume in the last week of August.

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….just wait until Autumn and I’ve a feeling you’ll not be complaining about heat and drought… Bank it!

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Given the drought and the state of the atmosphere, I really wouldn't rule out a notable heat wave in September just yet. I think the chances of a September in the top 5 warmest are higher this year than they would be in a more normal year.

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Same with Oct since 2011 to be like 1995 Oct to keep heating off as long as possible. We overdue for decent Oct so hope we get it this year.

just as the papers go nuts about the drought looks like it will end on Sunday. Water companies escape again. They can go back to underinvestment and shareholder profits 

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