What a difference a couple of days makes!

Indeed. Any precipitation will probably be in the form of showers/storms rather then frontal away from the NW. 

Some places could have 50mm and down the road will still be bone dry.

I'd even be happy with the classic "Thundery Rain" at this point!

Back to virtually no rain again on the GFS 0z for the South.  Another burst of heat next week as well back into the mid 30s again.

I start my first holiday of the year on Monday, and bang on cue, the rain will arrive.

Literally happens EVERY time I have a holiday. You can't make it up.

I can solve droughts by simply booking annual leave! 

Yes. ECM is looking a lot more unsettled for next week though. Really annoying that my holiday wasn’t a week earlier - as it is I’m spending most of this sunny week working and clearing a house ready for builders to start knocking through walls!

The ECM is much more unsettled but only because of the northern blocking its showing in the 192+ range which is very unlikely.  Think Guernsey will be ok next week 

GFS and other models keep flip-flopping for week 2. WX charts this morning show hot weather for W Europe incl S Britain and quite warm further east. For week 2 cooler air makes some inroads from the N for W Europe but still pleasantly warm (note that Iceland is below average for the time of year) while the main heat shifts E-wards to the area S of the Baltic. The rainfall chart shows more variability; week 1 as ever with rain over N Scotland & Norway and patches over the Alps. For week 2 the chart earlier this morning showed the rain moving S-wards in an arc Ireland - The Channel - Denmark but at time of posting it's been pushed back N again where it intensifies.

BBC talking about a definite maybe for a disturbance near Brittany with the prospect of showers for the S on Sun/Mon.

FAX also has LP 1008 mb Brittany Sat 13th with a local showery trough approaching the S Coast.

GFS synoptic chart starts with a ridge of HP across the N of Britain with the aforementioned shallow LP near Brittany drifting N over England Mon 15th ushering in first weak N-lies and then as LP deepens near Iceland, W-lies by Fri 19th. A trough over Ireland deepens Tue 23rd with S-lies in advance of it and N-lies following before it all goes back to zonal.

GEFS for the S shows peak heat Fri 12th with quite a rapid decline to norm and below Thu 18th. After that the mean stays near norm though op & control have their own private heat wave for a couple of days near Tue 23rd. Rain in more ens members than before, from Tue 16th, but no great amounts. In the N, once the temp drops on Thu 18th the mean stays below norm to end of forecast period but with considerable uncertainty, and no late heat wave. Rain also starts around the 15th, more prevalent and heavier than further S, notably heavier in the NW.

ECM like GFS to Mon 15th but the ensuing N/NW-lies are then stronger, and the following LP develops further S, over Rockall 995mb Fri 19th projecting a trough E-wards across N Britain to Baltic with E-lies for the N and W-lies for the S

GEFS sniffing another plume later next week. Not convinced any cooler unsettled spell will last long.

You are going to Norfolk aren't you? Only 3mm on the GFS 0z out to Friday 19th. 

Just remember this one. The hot August of 2003 fizzled out in the last 2 weeks of the month.

The heatwave of 1976 ended with a washout August Bank Holiday.

Hot spells can run into September . 2006 did that we had a hot July an iffy August - But September 2006 turned on the heat.

The summer of 1959 had a record dry September and even some heat in October.

Remarkable how well the models have picked up the breakdown to this heatwave just like the previous one. Though uncertainty about levels of rainfall.

I think we will all get some, but perhaps not enough to make that much difference

Think we probably need to wait until after the hot spell has ended to know how well the models have done. If it all goes Pete Tong on Friday they will have done really badly! And likewise if it's still warm and dry this time next week. Not sure how you can validate a forecast if the forecast period hasn't actually happened yet?

Its remarkable how these break downs here translate to continued drought, maxes back down to 24c- 26c and cooler nights for sleeping. 

Not much rain in the south on the 06z "breakdown"

Azores high pushing back in again after the unsettled spell

Normal heat returns in the south to end the month. Should get to 30 easily 

A growing theme this morning.  

GFS has ramped the heat up a bit more.

Max temps from Thursday of 35, 36, 37, 37, 35.

As Brian pointed out in a tweet, 35C is hotter than any day in the whole of the 1980s, and now we have five in a row modelled.

An outside chance of reaching 100F in two separate spells of weather almost a month apart.

If the 06z verifies then surely this summer will end up at the top of the league? Even better than 95 and 76?

But for the south I mean

Looking at energy prices, we need the Azores high to stick around all winter as well!

If the next few years time from hotter trends we would see 100F in early September plus June at some point.

I think better for the Atlantic to fire up all winter and turn those wind turbines round

Totally agreed especially Oct like 1995 did. 

One characteristic of this summer has been how regionalised the persistent good weather has been.

Many other regions (away from the W/N of Scotland) have had a decent summer with some very good spells, but the periods between the very good spells has been a bit 'meh' for most, but the SE quadrant has had better 'in between' weather.