As I recall '76 started to end  with drizzly, damp and cool weather. (I could be wrong here though) We had our first holiday of the year around the end of August start of September. It was wet and miserable and continued for a long time after.

GFS 0Z is a proper deluge after Monday. Some absolutely horrendous rainfall totals over the next 2 weeks, which perfectly coincides with my holidays.
I am always guaranteed to end a drought.

EDIT: Thankfully, ECM is a lot less bad.

Yes we need the rain, but not in the deluge that GFS is showing as it will just run off hard baked ground and cause massive flash flooding.

Slow steady rainfall would be far more welcome.

WX summary charts show the weather for Europe being dragged kicking and screaming towards a breakdown. For week 1 the high temperatures continue south of a line from N England to the Baltic but in week 2 the heat has retreated 300/400 miles S, with the new line from S France to S Poland, and an ominous advance of something quite cold from the E across Finland. There's patchy rain in various places incl C England and Wales week 1, but in week 2 there's an enormous wodge (new technical term) of heavy rain centred over the British Isles, with some minor extensions to E & W.

FAX shows a shallow LP moving from Brittany early Sunday to Wales mid-Monday with (thundery?) troughs circulating around it

GFS Op has the same evolution; and then as this LP moves off E-wards, it's replaced by a larger and deepening Atlantic LP, to the NW on Fri 19th but by Mon 22nd 985mb Irish Sea. Then a day or two of W-lies before another LP, this time from the SW running up the W coast of Britain 995mb NI Fri 26th, then moving further N but stlll extending a broad trough S to the Channel.

GEFS - in the S, mean temps decrease from a peak ca 7C above norm Sun 14th to norm Wed 17th and then stay there with good ens agreement. Much more rain than previously forecast, esp around Wed 17th (more but not exclusively SE) and Mon 22nd (more SW). In N England and in Scotland, mean temp even a little below norm, and the further N you go, the more spread out is the rain over time. 

ECM differs from GFS about the Atlantic LP which is shown running well N of Scotland from Fri 19th and by Mon 22nd is 995mb S Norway, so light W-lies at that period and less disturbed weather

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/fire-severity-index/#?tab=map&fcTime=1660388400&zoom=7&lon=-2.43&lat=52.15

never knew it existed - now it is exceptional

Speaking as a gardener and vegetable grower, an enormous wodge of heavy rain would be quite welcome!

Yes I think the next fortnight might erase any perceptions of this summer from the general public's minds. Regardless of hot spells, if August is a washout that is what sticks in people's minds, and the second half of the month looks pretty abysmal on today's evidence.

The only bright spot is that based on this chart at least, I might be going to the right place. Just 3mm in Guernsey!

That's only the first 10 days though, the first half of which are likely to be bone dry. The trough then sits right over the UK for another week!

Indeed, and it is one model that happens to drop the trough right on top of us. ECM is a lot dryer and warmer.

Edit: for the south

That is a lifetime away in NWP terms with several days of hot weather coming up before any kind of change to more unsettled conditions. A lot could change in FI (for better or worse!)

It's not far off a washout, given, as Rob says, this is only the first 10 days and there is then a semi stationary trough parked slap bang over the UK for the rest of the month.

IF, and its a big IF, GFS is near the mark, the second half of August will be a write-off for most.

That isn't a prediction by the way, just a view based on the last 4 or 5 GFS runs which have been resolutely unsettled.

Oh don't say that.  There is so much to learn here.  

We all know how well such long term sections of the GFS model can turn out to be.

It's not a washout. No sign of steady rain just more risk of convective activity which will deliver variable rainfall

Indeed, that is also an important point. Some places (with the exception of Witney, N Norfolk and Chester) may miss most of it. 

 Rainfall modelling has some way to catch up with temp modelling which has become pretty accurate recently. It is going to change next week with showers breaking out and possibly more organized rain at the end of the week.

It doesn't look like an outlier in any way to me. Very representative of the mean.

I feel we need to accept that the end is nigh on this unbelievable spell of weather. 

Mother Nature is about to start making up the rainfall deficit (as she always does).

 I hope you are right as it is looking like a dessert out there now

At +384 hr (which is the time point to which Tim is referring) the pressure on the op run is the lowest in the entire set.

Sand pudding rather than mud pie?

https://www.food.com/recipe/sand-pudding-recipe-516491

https://tasty.co/recipe/mississippi-mud-pie 

Wonder if we'll get wet weather when the kids go back?