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Wonder if we'll get wet weather when the kids go back?
Originally Posted by: Osprey
We’ll find out next week in Scotland.
Stay on topic everyone please - I've just deleted a post from here.
It doesn't look like an outlier in any way to me. Very representative of the mean.
I feel we need to accept that the end is nigh on this unbelievable spell of weather.
Mother Nature is about to start making up the rainfall deficit (as she always does).
Originally Posted by: moomin75
Er no she don't. You have been on this forum long enough to know the weather/climate don't work like that.
Here is the precipitation table from the 06z GEFS. Imby
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=308&y=102&run=6&ext=1&mode=3&sort=0
Massive washout I'm building a boat as I type.
Washout nailed on apparently.
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
OK, I'll get my coat (or should that be my galoshers).
Shame IDJ isn't still about, I need my ark.
This epic washout summer just gets drier and drier
Originally Posted by: Downpour
It really down to France to end the heat but with on-going heat will not let the rain happen and get downgraded. Rain will return when France back down the heat that had been around since May. 34.6C here today under super dry air and very comfortable without a sweat.
Wed next week should see some proper showers in the south, and then cooler, will feel autumnal compared to what we have now.
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Raw output looking at something like 22c at six day range. Hardly autumnal and in any case a million miles away in terms of forecasting. I actually want the rain. But I’ll believe it when I see it.
Significant high pressure at the end of the ECM tonight. And hot again
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
Need to see if its an outlier but second op in a row that doesnt have much rain
It is, however, not looking quite as wet as it was this time yesterday.
Yes, looks ok, but expect it'll be an outlier this time.
The long ranger has high pressure final week of August so it could be on to something.
That is what the Met Office says but it won't last long before turning unsettled again.
Here in Fulham it is currently breezy with a strong Easterly breeze and currently 25 degrees…it certainly does not feel hot or humid as at 8.30pm on 11th August
I think the 4 day heatwave modelled by The Met Office in our part of the country may not measure up to the projected highs they are currently forecasting until Sunday of course time will tell ….
Originally Posted by: cultman1
Looks like we got to ~33C today. Not sure what the Met were saying, but that looks to be slap bang inline with what the models suggested? 35C to 37C tops this weekend looks reasonable still I think.
MOGREPS looks quite dry too.
I can't embed the rain data table directly, but the London link is
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/mogreps-tables.aspx?run=12&fv=lsrratesfc&loc=london&lat=51&lon=0&p=&cty=
MOGREPS-G rain forecasts for the London area. Doesn't look like a lot of rain, but there is a lot of uncertainty https://t.co/HVrErP2k08 pic.twitter.com/DyE9AoqWcM— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) August 11, 2022
MOGREPS-G rain forecasts for the London area. Doesn't look like a lot of rain, but there is a lot of uncertainty https://t.co/HVrErP2k08 pic.twitter.com/DyE9AoqWcM
As expected, it is a fairly big outlier at the end.
As SJV says ECM definitely has pressure on the way up later on. Reasons to be optimistic tonight.
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=315&y=144&run=12&type=11&runpara=0
The max was 34.2 AFAIK and several stations broke 33. I think GFS had a 34 grid point today so more or lees bang on. The maxima have been dialled back a degree or two for Sunday, with Saturday now looking like the hottest day with 36 or possibly 37.
Originally Posted by: Rob K
I noticed that after I'd posted.