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Ally Pally Snowman
12 August 2022 19:32:26


It's a fairly dry outlier Ally, and with ECM looking a bit more unsettled, I think its anyone's guess after the heatwave dies out early next week.


Pretty sure we will see continued warmth for another month in patches, but a lot more rain too.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I think most places will see some rain next week.  But August looks likely atm to end very warm and dry again. Another heatwave to end August wouldn't surprise me. 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
12 August 2022 19:33:26


It's a fairly dry outlier Ally, and with ECM looking a bit more unsettled, I think its anyone's guess after the heatwave dies out early next week.


Pretty sure we will see continued warmth for another month in patches, but a lot more rain too.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


The ensembles are your friend Moomin. The 35 dayers have  been consistently showing settled weather long term, and the main models all show pressure rising to between 1015 and 1020hPa from a week’s time to the end of the runs. That says settled weather in late August. 


And now the ensembles all show consistently warmer than average uppers too.


Contrast this with early August 2018: all the long term ensembles were going unsettled, as were the Met Office mid rangers, despite the ongoing warm weather. And hey presto, the Augustcweather turned crap.


One more heatwave to come this summer I fancy. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
The Beast from the East
12 August 2022 19:53:13

ECM ens mean day 10 looks warm and dry for the south



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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 August 2022 20:02:50


It's a fairly dry outlier Ally, and with ECM looking a bit more unsettled, I think its anyone's guess after the heatwave dies out early next week.


Pretty sure we will see continued warmth for another month in patches, but a lot more rain too.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

We could really do with some rain but I’ll believe it when I see it. We had rain forecast after the last heat wave but it didn’t really materialise. 


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Bugglesgate
12 August 2022 20:25:07


We could really do with some rain but I’ll believe it when I see it. We had rain forecast after the last heat wave but it didn’t really materialise. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


We had some very light drizzly stuff here-doubt it even registered on rain gauges.


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
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Chunky Pea
12 August 2022 21:01:05


We could really do with some rain but I’ll believe it when I see it. We had rain forecast after the last heat wave but it didn’t really materialise. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


It's becoming the norm now for rain in summer to be as rare as snow in winter. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


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Downpour
12 August 2022 22:42:12


UKMO and GFS looking similar, not that much rain for areas that need it, SE rain shield in operation perhaps


Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Indeed. Dry - if not very dry - remains the form horse for SE England. Desert like conditions and screwed gardens for the foreseeable in the most populous region of the UK.


 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
12 August 2022 22:44:17


 


Still some useful rain in the coming days, but the 12z nowhere near as cool  and unsettled as the 6z was.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Even Witney is parched, Kieron. Truly the end of days. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
12 August 2022 22:49:10


 


It's becoming the norm now for rain in summer to be as rare as snow in winter. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Indeed. A wild goose chase. We need a Minister for Drought.


Chingford
London E4
147ft
CreweCold
12 August 2022 23:09:53


 


The ensembles are your friend Moomin. The 35 dayers have  been consistently showing settled weather long term, and the main models all show pressure rising to between 1015 and 1020hPa from a week’s time to the end of the runs. That says settled weather in late August. 


And now the ensembles all show consistently warmer than average uppers too.


Contrast this with early August 2018: all the long term ensembles were going unsettled, as were the Met Office mid rangers, despite the ongoing warm weather. And hey presto, the Augustcweather turned crap.


One more heatwave to come this summer I fancy. 


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Luckily over the next couple of weeks it’ll become harder and harder to reach the mid 30s, as nights become increasingly long. This current heatwave is the last hurrah of the extreme heat.



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
picturesareme
13 August 2022 00:56:20


 


Luckily over the next couple of weeks it’ll become harder and harder to reach the mid 30s, as nights become increasingly long. This current heatwave is the last hurrah of the extreme heat.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


There is still around 4 weeks for mid 30's to be reached - it can happen in September.


13 September is the lastest mid 30's have been recorded - 34.4C


27th September the latest 30C had been reached - 30.7C. 


 


 


 


 


 

The Beast from the East
13 August 2022 01:02:34


 


 We need a Minister for Drought.


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


We do have Nadine Dorries as Minister for Bullsh"t


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
CreweCold
13 August 2022 02:59:37


 


There is still around 4 weeks for mid 30's to be reached - it can happen in September.


13 September is the lastest mid 30's have been recorded - 34.4C


27th September the latest 30C had been reached - 30.7C. 


 


 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


It can, but the set up has to be more and more perfect for it to happen. It gets harder and harder to achieve the further towards September we go.


I'd put money on this current spell being the last time this year we have widespread mid 30s across the country. Whichever way you slice it, the best of summer is behind us and the sun is now approaching 10 degrees less in altitude compared to early July... the day shadows are lengthening.


Roll on autumn.



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2022 04:58:13
GFS modelling 33C for the S coast on 25th August. Likely a settled warm outlier, but the trend does seem to be towards renewed ridging.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jiries
13 August 2022 06:05:00

GFS modelling 33C for the S coast on 25th August. Likely a settled warm outlier, but the trend does seem to be towards renewed ridging.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


As long the temperatures in Sept is 20-30C plus days that keep the cold out and heating off. Still some posters really desperate for cold weather or end of summer early but not read the news about the heating bills will hit them hard.   If we can get Sept 1991 type, October 1995, November 1994 and Dec 1988 to keep heating low but if we get snow that welcome as long the temps are subzero and then straight back to over 10C if no snow around rather than 2-5C days.  Models show just 22C here this coming week then go up again so that keeping indoors temperatures stable at mid to high 20's next week during the cool down spell.  Plus now with lower sun the ray entering the house come to effect more warmer than June little sunlight ray inside. 

Gusty
13 August 2022 06:33:05

Trending settled and hotter for England and Wales after this week's showery 'hit and miss' breakdown that drops temperatures back down to the mid 20's for a few of days. The signal is actually fairly strong for the end of the month given the range on the GEFS. 


Some places will avoid the rain altogether. 


This is the 10 day accumulated rainfall.


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/240h.htm


 


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doctormog
13 August 2022 06:41:44
The GFS and in particular ECM look pretty wet for western and southern parts of Scotland in the coming week with things a bit more hit and miss elsewhere.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20220819-1200z.html 
Ally Pally Snowman
13 August 2022 06:45:21

Very warm and mainly dry would sum this up.


 



 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2022 06:49:29


Noticeable that for the S half of Britain and the nearby continent that rain is concentrated over the land; very little over the sea. To me, that says thunderstorms.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
13 August 2022 06:52:53


 


Noticeable that for the S half of Britain and the nearby continent that rain is concentrated over the land; very little over the sea. To me, that says thunderstorms.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Yes that’s a good point and likely to be the case I would guess. Further north and west, as well as the upcoming convective stuff I think there will be a few fronts too.


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2022 07:13:40

Truly a zombie summer (as someone has already christened it); each time a heat wave is forecast to decay it pops up again, as strongly as ever. Two days ago, and yesterday (when I looked but didn't have time to comment) cooler patches on the WX summaries were appearing in W Europe and some cool/cold air was approaching from the NE; and Britain was forecast to have plenty of rain.


Now (at least for these GFS based charts; but see Dr mog's ECM take above) the heat is back for the next two weeks across W Europe and quite far N in Britain; there's a heat bulge up to Finland in week 1 and although this flattens out in week 2, the higher temps press on into Russia. Rain is patchy, here and there in week 1, but in week 2 as has so often been the case banished to the far north, plus a bit over the Alps, and a very dry area developing along the coastal countries of W Europe.


GFS Op: pressure generally high for Britain today but that long-forecast shallow LP drifts NE from Brittany to the N Sea by Wed 17th, after which pressure ridges back in from the SW, not altogether convincingly as occasional LPs move past NW Scotland and LP over France is from time to time more active. The final chart for Mon 29th (a BH of course) shows a general drop in pressure as these two elements get together


GEFS: temps back down to norm for week beginning Wed 17th with a reasonable amount of rain in most ens members, but for the week following, back to warm and dry in the S while for Scotland esp the NW the mean temp in this week stays near norm and the rain continues in significant amounts.


ECM: makes rather more of the LP at the beginning of next week, and then later on emphasises the Atlantic LP with NW-lies on many days esp Mon 22nd with LP 995mb Rockall and trough to SE affecting all of Britain


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2022 08:03:37
GEFS P19 is our ticket to a guaranteed first 20C CET month, smashing July 2006.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Hungry Tiger
13 August 2022 08:36:25

GEFS P19 is our ticket to a guaranteed first 20C CET month, smashing July 2006.


Originally Posted by: TimS 



Gavin S. FRmetS.
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moomin75
13 August 2022 10:15:36
A warm but wet week coming up if the 6z is right.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Matty H
13 August 2022 10:38:05

A warm but wet week coming up if the 6z is right.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Pretty much identical to many previous runs. We have different definitions of “wet”


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