The ensembles are your friend Moomin. The 35 dayers have been consistently showing settled weather long term, and the main models all show pressure rising to between 1015 and 1020hPa from a week’s time to the end of the runs. That says settled weather in late August.
And now the ensembles all show consistently warmer than average uppers too.
Contrast this with early August 2018: all the long term ensembles were going unsettled, as were the Met Office mid rangers, despite the ongoing warm weather. And hey presto, the Augustcweather turned crap.
One more heatwave to come this summer I fancy.
Originally Posted by: TimS