In terms of "wet" still looks more convective than frontal, so some will get a deluge and others may stay largely dry. 

I think though, everyone will see some wet weather next week.

Possibly, although I’d imagine some places will stay dry, such is the nature

Summer looks far from done still. Well it is only mid August

If it wasn't a problem with statistics the summer in the UK could be turned into a 4 month season. September increasingly is AINO. 

Let us pray. I have just returned from a week in the West Country to find my garden completely screwed. Suspect there’s more than a soupçon of jam tomorrow from the models as per. 

Indeed so Brian. Hence why the wise among us use the traditional measure of the astronomical summer. But, I dare say opening that particular can of worms might be unwelcome fodder. 

I would be tempted to trim winter to 2 months in the north and 6 weeks in the south. 

If the GFS 6Z happened to be right, we'd surely be on course for the warmest August on record? With that run, we remain generally warm next week with cooler air never really making an inroads, before turning very hot again for the Late Summer BH weekend.

The only caveat with the second half of August is the nights are getting longer, so even under a hot air mass (especially one that's dry too) they can be quite cool. Still the maxima would surely be enough to secure a new record (1995 was 19.1°C).

Agreed - 20 Feb to 1 April :)

If statistics were irrelevant. Could trim actual Winter weather to about 2 weeks at best IMBY.

Indeed I was hoping for some rain at last this coming week. But getting less and less likely as it draws closer. With a few mm at best likely and a few "cooler" days before its back to high 20s low 30s

if you look at the record temps for each day of the year, the first half of September is much, much hotter than the first half of June. 

I consider September to be part of the modern summer now and generally holiday in the UK for a couple of weeks during the month. It’s a lovely month.

This evening’s runs so far looking like a downgrade. More Northwesterly, the low digs in more.

EDIT: scratch that, GFS is OK, just ICON that’s worse.

6 hours.

Going by the poor performance of UKV recently (e.g. yesterday IMBY a forecast of 24C in the 0z run becomes 29C by the 12z run), I wonder whether there'll actually be any colder than average conditions down here in the next couple of weeks.

The textbooks would tell you that the average max here is 22C in August (itself up a degree from the old 61-90 averages), but the coldest so far is 23.8C. In fact there's only been one colder than average day since the 1st July and even that was only 0.6C below average!

It seems the adage of a "add a few degrees" applies as much in the summer now as it does in the winter.

'Hit-and-miss' thunderstorm yellow warning for Monday for everywhere S of the Great Glen. Then on Tuesday, the area is reduced to England and Wales, and even so, excluding England SE of a line from Isle of Wight to the Wash.

Looks like another breakdown of a really hot spell without the traditional flash and bang.

Meanwhile, where are the hurricanes? It is supposed to be a particularly active season (and the Pacific is now up to H) - we could do with one or two crossing the Atlantic to import some moisture from the Caribbean.

Wait till late September … with the heat of the SSTs around our coast any Hurricanes might visit our shores in a manner which we don’t want to set any new records about.

The wise man’s measure - September is indeed more of a summer month than June (which is chiefly late spring).

Meanwhile, the models suggest any breakdown will be a fairly dry squib. 

Edit: in fact the 24 total to midday 9n Wednesday is remarkable: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9e1d558eccd89aebc169befc1f1f34c9/precipitation-total/20220816-2300z.html 

I recall when I ran some stats before that the warmest 91 day period, on average, is from the 3rd week of June to the end of the 2nd week in September. 

However, despite how warm early September can be, no way does it compare to the real summer dazzle of late May or early June, in my opinion at least.