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Downpour
14 August 2022 10:22:02

Quite a lot less rain showing up on the 6z next week.
Showers yes, but even more hit and miss than previously suggested.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


A contextual IMBY (vast majority of UK) take by you there Kieron.


No mention of the heavy rainfall about to be visited on the 143-strong population of Eriksay. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
The Beast from the East
14 August 2022 10:24:45

Heavy rain for Scotland and the north but very warm for the South. Story of our climate these days



 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
14 August 2022 10:27:48

Those in the drought areas should make the most of the rain on Tues/Wed, might be your lot for a while

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
ARTzeman
14 August 2022 10:40:38


Those in the drought areas should make the most of the rain on Tues/Wed, might be your lot for a while


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

As long as temperatures go down after the rain, I shall be happier.





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
moomin75
14 August 2022 10:42:50


As long as temperatures go down after the rain, I shall be happier.


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

After a very brief cool off, it does appear as though temperatures are heading back towards the mid to upper 20s. 


This exceptional summer doesn't yet show signs of easing too much. 


September is often an extension of summer, and I think we have a long way to go before it starts cooling off properly.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
The Beast from the East
14 August 2022 10:45:42

Fitting way to end the "summer", though as mentioned Sept these days is another summer month


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Downpour
14 August 2022 11:07:54


Fitting way to end the "summer", though as mentioned Sept these days is another summer month



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Always has been. First day of autumn is 22/23 Sep. 


The Sep 1 nonsense was only ever for statistical convenience. 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/summer/when-does-summer-start


 


 


 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Retron
14 August 2022 11:18:51


Always has been. First day of autumn is 22/23 Sep.


The Sep 1 nonsense was only ever for statistical convenience. 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


I think the farming community might have something to say about that!


And it always seemed silly to me when people say summer starts as soon as the days start getting shorter! Early June is definitely summer, the fresh, sparkly part of it with those impossibly long daylight hours. Similarly September, full of fruit and mellowness (albeit more often than not tainted by lingering heat) is far more autumn than summer.


The OED says this,


"The season between spring and autumn (now generally regarded as lasting from June to August in the northern hemisphere and from December to February in the southern hemisphere), during which the weather is typically warm or hot, the days are long, many animals are more active, and crops ripen, and which is popularly associated with school holidays and outdoor leisure activities"


Fun fact: there are no official start and end dates to the seasons in the UK, unlike in the States. So in reality, choose whatever fits your view best - in my case, aligning more with the months than the stars.


(And back to the models - no sign of summer ending any time soon, and it's a crapshoot with regards to how much rain will actually fall. The UKV keeps coming and going with storm/shower locations for much of England with each run!)

Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
14 August 2022 11:31:25

September has always felt like the start of Autumn to me, kids back to school, leaves on the ground etc.
The fact it might be occasionally warm makes no more difference than a cold day in March being labelled as ‘winter’


 


 

Matty H
14 August 2022 11:51:05
Leaves on the ground? Maybe dead ones from the heat. It’s usually late October here before autumn starts dropping leaves from the trees
Yate, Nr Bristol
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four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
14 August 2022 12:03:20
September has always been known a month usually having warm (but less hot) days and ample dry weather.
When most cereals were spring sown it was the main harvesting month.
These days Wheat and Barley cropping is dominated by autumn sown varieties which need a cold spell to go into the productive phase the following year.
Having had longer to build a good root system they are more resistant to drought and the earlier harvesting from early July means less chance of needing artificial drying at harvest.
The dominance of these earlier ripening crops since mid 1980s has had significant effect on local temperatures - not unlike UHI as cropped areas are almost all brown or cleared stubble by August when in the past they would still be green.
North York Moors weather 
NCross
14 August 2022 12:09:34
The bracken up on the mendip hills are showing signs of heat stress, I think the mendips around cheddar have got more of a brown colour than 1995 but on a far with July 2017. I think the wet weather for Tuesday in Cheddar will not come to anything like the low pressure system which produced nothing.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
14 August 2022 12:32:48

September has always been known a month usually having warm (but less hot) days and ample dry weather.
When most cereals were spring sown it was the main harvesting month.
These days Wheat and Barley cropping is dominated by autumn sown varieties which need a cold spell to go into the productive phase the following year.
Having had longer to build a good root system they are more resistant to drought and the earlier harvesting from early July means less chance of needing artificial drying at harvest.
The dominance of these earlier ripening crops since mid 1980s has had significant effect on local temperatures - not unlike UHI as cropped areas are almost all brown or cleared stubble by August when in the past they would still be green.

Originally Posted by: four 


Yes, it’s a bit of a myth that September is a wet and windy month, especially in the East. Usually a fairly settled month in Kent and Essex - good for viticulture - and much drier in places like Champagne, Burgundy and Alsace than May or June, which used to be helpful for harvest but now they take the grapes in there during August most years. 


September strikes me as a great month if you’re retired. Mellow early Autumn, quieter and more manageable temperatures in the Med, but without the whole back to school and back to work melancholy that meets those with jobs and/or kids.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
bledur
14 August 2022 13:41:23


Those in the drought areas should make the most of the rain on Tues/Wed, might be your lot for a while


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 How will i make the most of nothing?

bledur
14 August 2022 13:46:28


After a very brief cool off, it does appear as though temperatures are heading back towards the mid to upper 20s. 


This exceptional summer doesn't yet show signs of easing too much. 


September is often an extension of summer, and I think we have a long way to go before it starts cooling off properly.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 Temps dropped off really quick in 83 round here. After a hot July and August, it changed on the 2nd of Sept with a short wet and windy spell and then some cool days and nights with ground frost before more significant rain later in the month.

White Meadows
14 August 2022 14:37:51

Leaves on the ground? Maybe dead ones from the heat. It’s usually late October here before autumn starts dropping leaves from the trees

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Depends where you are I suppose. Horse chestnuts among others usually start dropping early September down here. 

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 August 2022 15:07:59

September has always been known a month usually having warm (but less hot) days and ample dry weather.
When most cereals were spring sown it was the main harvesting month.
These days Wheat and Barley cropping is dominated by autumn sown varieties which need a cold spell to go into the productive phase the following year.
Having had longer to build a good root system they are more resistant to drought and the earlier harvesting from early July means less chance of needing artificial drying at harvest.
The dominance of these earlier ripening crops since mid 1980s has had significant effect on local temperatures - not unlike UHI as cropped areas are almost all brown or cleared stubble by August when in the past they would still be green.

Originally Posted by: four 

 I remember as a child, playing in fields of straw bales just as school was starting back in September.  Now most fields are harvested before school breaks up for summer! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 August 2022 15:12:29


 


Yes, it’s a bit of a myth that September is a wet and windy month, especially in the East. Usually a fairly settled month in Kent and Essex - good for viticulture - and much drier in places like Champagne, Burgundy and Alsace than May or June, which used to be helpful for harvest but now they take the grapes in there during August most years. 


September strikes me as a great month if you’re retired. Mellow early Autumn, quieter and more manageable temperatures in the Med, but without the whole back to school and back to work melancholy that meets those with jobs and/or kids.


Originally Posted by: TimS 

Love your last paragraph!  That’s exactly right.  I used to hate the thoughts of my kids going back to school. I think that’s what marks the end of summer for a lot of people, regardless of weather or calendar seasons.   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Downpour
14 August 2022 16:25:45


Love your last paragraph!  That’s exactly right.  I used to hate the thoughts of my kids going back to school. I think that’s what marks the end of summer for a lot of people, regardless of weather or calendar seasons.   


Originally Posted by: Caz 


 


So the seasons are set by the manmade schedules of the state school system rather than the cosmos? That’s a new one on me I must admit 😃

Chingford
London E4
147ft
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
14 August 2022 16:42:32


So the seasons are set by the manmade schedules of the state school system rather than the cosmos? That’s a new one on me I must admit 😃


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


For most of us with school age children, yes. It’s an immutable fact of life. Summer starts in late July, ends the first week of September, spring starts with the Easter holidays and so on.


In life most of us are free from the academic calendar for three periods: from zero to 4 (unless there’s an older sibling), from 21 to around 30, then from the mid 50s or 60s onwards. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
bledur
14 August 2022 18:01:05

Rain back on again


Chart image

moomin75
14 August 2022 18:39:59


Rain back on again


Chart image


Originally Posted by: bledur 

Yep, and ECM 12Z also looks pretty unsettled too.


I think this is the end of the proper summer weather now, save for the odd here or there.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
14 August 2022 18:47:57
ECM at 192 hrs is almost identical to GFS at the same time. Zonal ridging. High pressure ahead.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Matty H
14 August 2022 18:48:56


Yep, and ECM 12Z also looks pretty unsettled too.


I think this is the end of the proper summer weather now, save for the odd here or there.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


You literally hang your hat on every model run and call it one way or the other. You actually chop and change with…… the weather 🤣🤣🤣

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
doctormog
14 August 2022 18:53:12

ECM at 192 hrs is almost identical to GFS at the same time. Zonal ridging. High pressure ahead.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Yes, it looks like a realistic possibility that there could be another warm surge from the south by the middle of next week.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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