theweatheroutlook

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 August 2022 18:56:00


 


 


So the seasons are set by the manmade schedules of the state school system rather than the cosmos? That’s a new one on me I must admit 😃


Originally Posted by: Downpour 

  That’s just perception!  My kids are grown up and long since left school but I still remember that feeling of melancholy, summer is over.  I knew exactly what Tim meant! Even though I’ve always gone with September 21st as the last day of summer. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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bledur
14 August 2022 19:00:08


 


Yes, it looks like a realistic possibility that there could be another warm surge from the south by the middle of next week.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 Yes, possibly but it did not look so certain from the charts on the week ahead BBC with the Azores High not ridging so strongly as previously shown.

doctormog
14 August 2022 19:02:52


 


 Yes, possibly but it did not look so certain from the charts on the week ahead BBC with the Azores High not ridging so strongly as previously shown.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


 I’d would say looking at the timescale on today’s charts that it would be beyond the range of the week ahead forecasts. We’re talking a long way out so all the usual caveats apply: www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_2.png 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 August 2022 19:04:35


 


For most of us with school age children, yes. It’s an immutable fact of life. Summer starts in late July, ends the first week of September, spring starts with the Easter holidays and so on.


In life most of us are free from the academic calendar for three periods: from zero to 4 (unless there’s an older sibling), from 21 to around 30, then from the mid 50s or 60s onwards. 


Originally Posted by: TimS 

  Then come the grandchildren!  I have a feeling from 70 onwards, I’ll be back to school seasons, granny nannying during school holidays. Our granddaughter has just turned one year old. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Ally Pally Snowman
14 August 2022 19:04:48

Some rain, but not much. Warm aswell . 


 



 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hippydave
14 August 2022 19:57:27
UKV isn't particularly keen on showers imby, may see a few early hours of Tuesday but essentially dry other than that. Wouldn't surprise me, often get the heat whilst the storms seem to kick off further North and West, we rely more on imports than home grown storms.

Outlook wise looking at ECM it's less settled than recently but with fronts moving down from the north west I imagine rain here will be limited and as the T240 chart shows further bursts of heat can't be ruled out.

Would just be nice to have a few wet and miserable days, been tediously dry😂 (I know some won't agree!)
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
MBrothers
14 August 2022 20:02:51


 


You literally hang your hat on every model run and call it one way or the other. You actually chop and change with…… the weather 🤣🤣🤣


Originally Posted by: Matty H 

if u go back one page he says the exact opposite to today

Jiries
14 August 2022 20:19:55


Some rain, but not much. Warm aswell . 


 



 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Few members going for 20C with one at 21C so one to watch if this will be the growing trend for strong heatwave which nearly giving 35C for 1st Sept but end of this month.

moomin75
14 August 2022 21:41:20


if u go back one page he says the exact opposite to today


Originally Posted by: MBrothers 

Yep, I comment on what the operational run shows. Simple as that really.


The fact it was the complete opposite yesterday shows how fickle these charts are.


Are you not understanding my narrative? I am literally saying, in no uncertain terms, that the models are chopping and changing every single run, so I either comment on them to get the point across how ridiculous it is following each run, or i just stay quiet and everyone else searches for the Holy Grail of accurate forecasting. 


The fact is, apart from a few days, it's absolutely impossible to forecast anything in this country. 


 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Matty H
14 August 2022 21:48:49


Yep, I comment on what the operational run shows. Simple as that really.


The fact it was the complete opposite yesterday shows how fickle these charts are.


Are you not understanding my narrative? I am literally saying, in no uncertain terms, that the models are chopping and changing every single run, so I either comment on them to get the point across how ridiculous it is following each run, or i just stay quiet and everyone else searches for the Holy Grail of accurate forecasting. 


The fact is, apart from a few days, it's absolutely impossible to forecast anything in this country. 


 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


It is if your methodology is to base all your expectations on operational runs

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
White Meadows
14 August 2022 22:07:25

 



Yep, I comment on what the operational run shows. Simple as that really.


The fact it was the complete opposite yesterday shows how fickle these charts are.


Are you not understanding my narrative? I am literally saying, in no uncertain terms, that the models are chopping and changing every single run, so I either comment on them to get the point across how ridiculous it is following each run, or i just stay quiet and everyone else searches for the Holy Grail of accurate forecasting. 


The fact is, apart from a few days, it's absolutely impossible to forecast anything in this country. 


 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

 


With all due respect, nobody does. 

picturesareme
15 August 2022 01:36:14


Yep, I comment on what the operational run shows. Simple as that really.


The fact it was the complete opposite yesterday shows how fickle these charts are.


Are you not understanding my narrative? I am literally saying, in no uncertain terms, that the models are chopping and changing every single run, so I either comment on them to get the point across how ridiculous it is following each run, or i just stay quiet and everyone else searches for the Holy Grail of accurate forecasting. 


The fact is, apart from a few days, it's absolutely impossible to forecast anything in this country. 


 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


And yet you love nothing more than to write off weeks, months, and sometimes entire seasons because one or two runs that show a little wet weather in spring/summer or some mild weather in winter.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
15 August 2022 06:30:13
This summer’s settled weather has been consistently forecast on long term seasonal ensembles since the start. The two main heatwaves were picked out by major models well over a week in advance, including the timing and peak of the record high temperatures in July.

This summer has demonstrated just how good our numerical weather prediction models have become.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 August 2022 07:00:37

This morning's WX summaries are very much a repeat of yesterday; in week 1 something a bit cooler for W Europe while the heat surges N-wards over E Europe into Finland and then in week 2 that surge subsides while W Europe becomes hotter again, most noticeably over Spain (super-hot) and France. Rain well distributed over Europe in week 1 but the dry patch from the SW approaches to the Baltic is back in week 2, as so often this summer.


FAX shows LP with a tangle of fronts and showery troughs over the SE through to Wed, then being swept away by W-lies from the Atlantic (but local forecasting changes run by run - according to MetO locally we have gone from storms on Tuesday to storms today and now deferred to Wednesday)


GFS Op - As the FAX output above, shallow (thundery) LP moving away to be replaced by W-ly governed by LP 990mb S of Iceland FRi 19th. HP then builds in from the SW for the rest of the forecast period, rather uncertainly at first as LP hangs on to the N but 1030mb Scotland Sat 27th, weakening with Britain in a col for the rest of the BH


GEFS - mean cools to norm or a bit below Sun 21st but recovers and is steadily warm (but not hot) for the rest of the forecast, with measurable amounts of rain for week 1 before becoming dry again. Rain persists longer in the N; and for Scotland the op & control runs are noticeablty cooler than the mean


ECM - like GFS but the HP is slower to rebuild so quite cool with NW-lies around Mon 22nd before rejoining GFS for the end of that week

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
15 August 2022 07:14:30
This morning’s ensembles continue to show a sustained, stable period of warmer than average temperatures to see the month out.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
The Beast from the East
15 August 2022 07:43:55

This morning’s ensembles continue to show a sustained, stable period of warmer than average temperatures to see the month out.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Though more rain in the next 7 to 8 days than previously forecast. GEM has led the way on this and looks autumnal at day 10 with the high staying out to the west


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
15 August 2022 07:50:50

This morning’s ensembles continue to show a sustained, stable period of warmer than average temperatures to see the month out.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Yes, I think, looking across the models over the last few runs, that a brief unsettled cooler period is likely before a warm up once again with more settled conditions likely. It could all change I suppose.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
bledur
15 August 2022 08:10:16


 


 I’d would say looking at the timescale on today’s charts that it would be beyond the range of the week ahead forecasts. We’re talking a long way out so all the usual caveats apply: www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_2.png 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 Chart showed out to next Tuesday 23rd and it looked nothing like your link with the Azores High in mid Atlantic

doctormog
15 August 2022 08:13:55


 


 Chart showed out to next Tuesday 23rd and it looked nothing like your link with the Azores High in mid Atlantic


Originally Posted by: bledur 


That’s one long week. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
bledur
15 August 2022 08:21:34


 


That’s one long week. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 Sorry Monday 22nd, still there to watch

doctormog
15 August 2022 08:25:14


 


 Sorry Monday 22nd, still there to watch


Originally Posted by: bledur 


That’s still a long week from yesterday. That aside I’m not sure if the BBC use the ECM operational runs for their synoptics charts?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
moomin75
15 August 2022 11:02:03


 


And yet you love nothing more than to write off weeks, months, and sometimes entire seasons because one or two runs that show a little wet weather in spring/summer or some mild weather in winter.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Well, off topic, but in sure you will all be thrilled to know, I'm disappearing for a while.


Sadly, I've had to cancel my holiday as I've been taken into hospital today after I collapsed yesterday evening.


Not sure what caused it, but I've been taken to hospital for some tests and not sure how long I'll be here for. 


Feeling thoroughly under the weather right now in a lot of pain 🤒


I will hopefully be home soon but my holiday has gone for a burton.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
15 August 2022 11:10:13


Well, off topic, but in sure you will all be thrilled to know, I'm disappearing for a while.


Sadly, I've had to cancel my holiday as I've been taken into hospital today after I collapsed yesterday evening.


Not sure what caused it, but I've been taken to hospital for some tests and not sure how long I'll be here for. 


Feeling thoroughly under the weather right now in a lot of pain 🤒


I will hopefully be home soon but my holiday has gone for a burton.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

So sorry to hear that and hope you soon get better.  I won’t be thrilled that you’re disappearing, I don’t mind your posts.  You do make observations but you often pick the worst one and take it to heart.  A little bit of open mindedness wouldn’t go amiss!  Maybe the odd post will help take your mind off your illness.  Take care!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
bledur
15 August 2022 11:28:47


 


That’s still a long week from yesterday. That aside I’m not sure if the BBC use the ECM operational runs for their synoptics charts?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 I got a feeling we have crossed wires, the chart she had behind her , what model i do not know definitely had the Azores High far enough west to allow fronts to cross all parts of the u.k. albeit weakish in the s.e. 

Rob K
15 August 2022 11:43:28


Well, off topic, but in sure you will all be thrilled to know, I'm disappearing for a while.


Sadly, I've had to cancel my holiday as I've been taken into hospital today after I collapsed yesterday evening.


Not sure what caused it, but I've been taken to hospital for some tests and not sure how long I'll be here for. 


Feeling thoroughly under the weather right now in a lot of pain 🤒


I will hopefully be home soon but my holiday has gone for a burton.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Sorry to hear that and hope you will be on the mend soon. There is a lot of joshing on this forum but I always enjoy your posts even if it is just for entertainment value to see the summer written off followed in short order by a record-breaking heatwave 


The 6Z GFS run suggests plenty of warm weather to come right out to the end of August so I hope you will still be able to enjoy some summer.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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