theweatheroutlook

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2022 11:49:45


If the 06z verifies then surely this summer will end up at the top of the league? Even better than 95 and 76?


But for the south I mean


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The coolish nights in June I think will cost us the chance to beat 76 which got a huge June head start. Quite likely to be a hotter July-August than 1976 or 2018 and on a par - if something like 06z verifies - with July-Aug 1995 which was the daddy of school holiday heatwaves. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2022 11:56:08
The mid August rebuild has now consistently shown up on consecutive GFS runs and it’s there, though less marked, in the SLP averages in the GEFS and GEM ensembles. Mean pressure around 1016-17hPa by the 20th and staying there.

ECM Ens is a tiny bit lower pressure (1014-16) but still not bad.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Tim A
09 August 2022 12:37:23


 


Looking at energy prices, we need the Azores high to stick around all winter as well!


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Moderate SW Winds and mild nights would be better.


Who am I kidding though, I still want cold and snow.


 

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Rob K
09 August 2022 12:41:20

In terms of absolute maximum temperatures we are a long way behind 2018.

By this stage of the summer in 2018 we had had 24 days with a max of 30C or higher, of which 2 were 35C+. This year we have had 10 days of 30C+ with 2 of them 35C+ (both of which were 38+ and one of course was over 40!)

However, 2018 tailed off rapidly from this point and much of late August was rather cool.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ozone_aurora
09 August 2022 14:23:01


 


Just remember this one. The hot August of 2003 fizzled out in the last 2 weeks of the month.


The heatwave of 1976 ended with a washout August Bank Holiday.


Hot spells can run into September . 2006 did that we had a hot July an iffy August - But September 2006 turned on the heat.


The summer of 1959 had a record dry September and even some heat in October.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


I seem to recall that September 2003 had a good deal of warm, dry sunny weather after a cool end to August. There was a marked cooling event around 22nd, with temperatures dropping by 10 C or more on one late afternoon at number of stations, but fine weather returned and dominated October I also seem to remember until late month.

The Summer of 1976 did indeed end abruptly at August Bank Holiday, and September was a very unsettled and wet month. I seem to recall a Minister of Drought was going to be in place at that time.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2022 15:17:55



The Summer of 1976 did indeed end abruptly at August Bank Holiday, and September was a very unsettled and wet month. I seem to recall a Minister of Drought was going to be in place at that time.


Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


Dennis Howell was actually in post and then it started raining a week later. 


The appointment provoked much public mirth, but in true Brummie style, the Lozells-born MP responded by inviting reporters to his then Moseley home where he revealed the solution to water rationing was sharing the bath with his wife! [Birmingham Mail]


Then in 1978-9 he was appointed Minister for Snow

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
The Beast from the East
09 August 2022 16:36:55

Much cooler GFS this time, but not too much rain in the SE


UKMO hard to say

"We have some alternative facts for you"
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Bolty
09 August 2022 17:28:28
It's looking increasingly likely from the models that we may finally be having the classic August that many summer lovers have been wishing for for many years. Already this spell of settled weather will make it the best August since 2003 for the UK as a whole, but if the heat returns later on it will surely make it the best since 1995.

This is certainly going to be a summer for the history books, I think. Not up there with persistence, but the heat waves have been spectacular, especially if we see another 37/38°C at the end of this week.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Rob K
09 August 2022 17:34:46

It's looking increasingly likely from the models that we may finally be having the classic August that many summer lovers have been wishing for for many years. Already this spell of settled weather will make it the best August since 2003 for the UK as a whole, but if the heat returns later on it will surely make it the best since 1995.

This is certainly going to be a summer for the history books, I think. Not up there with persistence, but the heat waves have been spectacular, especially if we see another 37/38°C at the end of this week.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 


If GFS 12Z op run verifies it would spoil August a bit though!


Also slightly "cooler" this week, if you can call 4 days of 35C cooler!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Bertwhistle
09 August 2022 17:39:26


Much cooler GFS this time, but not too much rain in the SE


UKMO hard to say


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Good to see the conversation back on the models.


12z looks as if it lacks the optimism of a late August recharge, as some have said.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2022 17:44:35


 


Good to see the conversation back on the models.


12z looks as if it lacks the optimism of a late August recharge, as some have said.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


I think the best indicator for later recharges is the ensemble SLP. If the average goes up to and stays confortably above 1015hPa then we’re in good shape for a recharge, even if the 850s don’t show much.


Last couple of GFS ensembles had SLP around 1017hPa from the 20th. ECM and GEM a bit lower bur still a bounce back. This evening GEFS is at 1014hPa on the 20th, so it’s looking less rebuildy than 06z, but still heading up.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2022 18:36:39

It's looking increasingly likely from the models that we may finally be having the classic August that many summer lovers have been wishing for for many years. Already this spell of settled weather will make it the best August since 2003 for the UK as a whole, but if the heat returns later on it will surely make it the best since 1995.

This is certainly going to be a summer for the history books, I think. Not up there with persistence, but the heat waves have been spectacular, especially if we see another 37/38°C at the end of this week.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

It’s often the case, when we have good weather in July, it turns in time for school holidays, then we get a decent September when they go back. I thought after the record heatwave, we were getting a repeat, as we had a few days of cloud here, but it’s turned again for the better. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Rob K
09 August 2022 18:40:40

I must have been looking at cached charts as the 12Z GFS isn't actually cooler for this week/weekend.
From tomorrow the maxima are 33, 34, 36, 36, 38, 35.

In any other year this place would be going mental with that forecast but this year it's all a bit "so what"!


Sunday could be one of the top 5 hottest days ever recorded and nobody is really paying much attention after the 40C excitement of July.


If Sunday does reach 38C then 3 of the top 5 will have been this year, and 5 of the top 6 since 2019!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2022 18:45:06


I must have been looking at cached charts as the 12Z GFS isn't actually cooler for this week/weekend.
From tomorrow the maxima are 33, 34, 36, 36, 38, 35.

In any other year this place would be going mental with that forecast but this year it's all a bit "so what"!


Sunday could be one of the top 5 hottest days ever recorded and nobody is really paying much attention after the 40C excitement of July.


If Sunday does reach 38C then 3 of the top 5 will have been this year, and 5 of the top 6 since 2019!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 Heat fatigue!  It’s probably because we’re no longer watching for records to be broken.  Although we could actually get the two top temperatures within the same summer!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Rob K
09 August 2022 18:56:14
GEM is a bit of a shocker for next week.
ECM also fairly LP dominated but a much shallower and slacker trough. Either way it looks a lot less summery than this week.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
09 August 2022 19:08:14

GEM is a bit of a shocker for next week.
ECM also fairly LP dominated but a much shallower and slacker trough. Either way it looks a lot less summery than this week.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yup, the Moomin holiday curse strikes.


Guaranteed to bring rain.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Matty H
09 August 2022 19:16:58


 


Yup, the Moomin holiday curse strikes.


Guaranteed to bring rain.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Indeed. Guaranteed like this summer was a guaranteed washout….

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
moomin75
09 August 2022 19:45:37


 


Indeed. Guaranteed like this summer was a guaranteed washout….


Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Are you suggesting it doesn't look unsettled next week?


I've already accepted what a twonk I was to call a poor summer, but as it stands, next week just looks cooler and unsettled, which, although very much needed, is typical for me!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Downpour
09 August 2022 20:07:26


It’s often the case, when we have good weather in July, it turns in time for school holidays, then we get a decent September when they go back. I thought after the record heatwave, we were getting a repeat, as we had a few days of cloud here, but it’s turned again for the better. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Not sure it is “often the case” TBH. The weather gets worse for the school holidays is a TWO cliche backed up by little if any evidence! 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
moomin75
09 August 2022 20:16:03


 


Not sure it is “often the case” TBH. The weather gets worse for the school holidays is a TWO cliche backed up by little if any evidence! 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 

I think you're right. There is a perception that it gets worse for the school holidays, largely because a few recent Augusts haven't been great.


But I remember many amazing school summer holidays as a kid, and ultimately August is a summer month, and can be really hot, as the upcoming spell is proving.


 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2022 20:23:59


 


Not sure it is “often the case” TBH. The weather gets worse for the school holidays is a TWO cliche backed up by little if any evidence! 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 

 Yes, I know this has been said before, although not just a TWO cliché, I often hear it said.   Maybe it just seems that way.  A bit like talking to people abroad who think it always rains in the UK, because that’s what they’ve heard from us so many times.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Rob K
09 August 2022 20:32:39


Are you suggesting it doesn't look unsettled next week?


I've already accepted what a twonk I was to call a poor summer, but as it stands, next week just looks cooler and unsettled, which, although very much needed, is typical for me!


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


To be fair it still looks reasonably warm, low 20s at worst in the south. Rain looks to be hit or miss rather than all-day washout territory (I hope). I've known much worse!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
09 August 2022 22:40:10
18Z GFS a degree or two less hot for the weekend, 36 rather than 38 the max.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Osprey
09 August 2022 23:12:23


 


Not sure it is “often the case” TBH. The weather gets worse for the school holidays is a TWO cliche backed up by little if any evidence! 


Originally Posted by: Downpour 


Do you want to argue that point of evidence with the millions of mothers and fathers around the country?


The answer is no! It is not a cliche, it's fact, it's only been (except in the last couple of Augusts (and a few exceptions) that we've had good


weather after August, and for a long time August has nearly always been a washout, until after the first week in September when the kids


have gone back to school the good weather arrives. This has happend too many times to not notice.


I've also known an August or two when we've had snow.

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Retron
10 August 2022 04:27:51


I've also known an August or two when we've had snow.


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


No you haven't - unless you mean on top of a mountain (as it can snow at the top of Ben Nevis any time of year).


If you think you have, please prove it! As someone who detests summer and who always looks for cold weather where possible, I'm unaware of anything involving sleet (let alone snow) in lowland England (or Wales) in August. There have been cases of sleet in July and September, but we're talking a hundred+ years ago.


 

Leysdown, north Kent

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