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Brian Gaze
22 August 2022 15:57:38


 


Frosts are so rare in autumn these days that I think the traditional definition doesn't work very well anymore. It was a North American thing. I would say summer weather in October or at a push late September onwards probably counts, after the first "autumnal" spell of weather. So heat in the first week of Sept this year would be an extension of the actual summer rather than an Indian summer.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


It would be interesting to see how the first day in the autumn when temperatures dip below 0C has changed in the last 50 years for selected locations across the UK. Not sure if it's easily available?


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
22 August 2022 18:21:34


 


It would be interesting to see how the first day in the autumn when temperatures dip below 0C has changed in the last 50 years for selected locations across the UK. Not sure if it's easily available?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Never mind autumn, I'm pretty sure some years we haven't had an air frost round here till after Christmas, but maybe that's my imagination!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Downpour
22 August 2022 18:29:28
I see today’s promised rains have delivered precisely 0.0mm for my locale as the driest washout summer in human history continues with no end in sight.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Jiries
22 August 2022 19:17:45

I see today’s promised rains have delivered precisely 0.0mm for my locale as the driest washout summer in human history continues with no end in sight.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


Same here no rain despite apps over reacting it.  Just passing clouds.  From tomorrow onward looking warmer and settled to the end of the month.

Brian Gaze
22 August 2022 20:07:31


 


Never mind autumn, I'm pretty sure some years we haven't had an air frost round here till after Christmas, but maybe that's my imagination!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I think you're right.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
22 August 2022 20:07:54

I see today’s promised rains have delivered precisely 0.0mm for my locale as the driest washout summer in human history continues with no end in sight.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


A few spots of  rain here but nothing measurable. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
ballamar
22 August 2022 22:29:30
Thursday could end up fairly wet in the SE and East Anglia looking at arpege
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 August 2022 07:25:36

The amount of hesitation in BBC forecasts and the amounts & timing of rainfall, at least in the SE, suggest a degree of instability in the models even for this week. But as it stands now:


WX temp summary showing as yesterday a retreat of heat southwards; if anything, Uk is cooler in week 2 than previously shown with cool air working in from the NW. Scattered rain across W Europe in week 1; then a lot of rain extending from the Atlantic to France, Britain and Scandinavia week 2


Jet - nothing much at first but from Thu 1st a loop develops W of Britain and intensifies and moves E over the following week.


GFS Op - pressure remains fairly high over Britain, any LPs off to the NW, for the rest of August, then Lp 985mb Hebrides Fri 2nd moving E across Scotland followed by N-lies then good old-fashioned dartboard LP pops up off W Ireland 975mb Thu 8th. An ex-hurricane appearing later on on the Atlantic doesn't seem to connect with any of this.


GEFS - fairly warm in the S this week but after that unexceptionally near norm for two weeks. Some rain Thu 25th (but not on MetO) then dry until around Sat 3rd (some ens members keep the rain going in the N). 


ECM - similar to GFS but pressure slack and on the low side over the BH weekend - though the arrival of the first deep LP on Fri 2nd is agreed


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
23 August 2022 07:49:41

Rain remains illegal here. It attempted to return yesterday and this morning but on both occasions was rapidly sent packing with only a few drops of the vile stuff reaching the ground. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 August 2022 08:00:46

Thursday could end up fairly wet in the SE and East Anglia looking at arpege

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


All models show a narrow streak of pretty heavy rain moving up from SSW to NNE on Thursday, but the total intensity and the exact longitude of this varies quite a lot.


This morning's GFS has it over Kent, and maxing at 13mm over Thanet



ECM has it in a similar place but a bit heavier:


 


In both cases London and Westwards gets virtually nothing.


But UKMO is even heavier (up to 50mm+ locally looking at the shading) and significantly further West



One way or the other somewhere will get soaked, but just who, and how soaked remains up for grabs.  


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
ballamar
23 August 2022 08:32:58


 


All models show a narrow streak of pretty heavy rain moving up from SSW to NNE on Thursday, but the total intensity and the exact longitude of this varies quite a lot.


This morning's GFS has it over Kent, and maxing at 13mm over Thanet



ECM has it in a similar place but a bit heavier:


 


In both cases London and Westwards gets virtually nothing.


But UKMO is even heavier (up to 50mm+ locally looking at the shading) and significantly further West



One way or the other somewhere will get soaked, but just who, and how soaked remains up for grabs.  


Originally Posted by: TimS 


be great if the more extreme options come off, every chance could end up dry as well with it missing to the east!


hopefully a soaking on the cards

Matty H
23 August 2022 08:33:46


 


Never mind autumn, I'm pretty sure some years we haven't had an air frost round here till after Christmas, but maybe that's my imagination!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


100% and regularly. Frosts are now a rarity “here” in winter. One of the pluses of global warming. 


Jiries
23 August 2022 08:37:22


Rain remains illegal here. It attempted to return yesterday and this morning but on both occasions was rapidly sent packing with only a few drops of the vile stuff reaching the ground. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


There was rain on M40 Junction for Oxford area on my way to Slough. Looking very nice ahead after this boring weather lately.

Jiries
23 August 2022 12:55:00

If they are showing high 20s for the SE then it gone wrong as it very overcast. cool and rainy in Slough.   Still decent later and to the weekend. 

Ally Pally Snowman
23 August 2022 13:50:42


If they are showing high 20s for the SE then it gone wrong as it very overcast. cool and rainy in Slough.   Still decent later and to the weekend. 


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


It's over 28c in Suffolk again today Jiries.  East Anglia again the place for heat .


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
23 August 2022 17:05:21


 


All models show a narrow streak of pretty heavy rain moving up from SSW to NNE on Thursday, but the total intensity and the exact longitude of this varies quite a lot.


This morning's GFS has it over Kent, and maxing at 13mm over Thanet



ECM has it in a similar place but a bit heavier:


 


In both cases London and Westwards gets virtually nothing.


But UKMO is even heavier (up to 50mm+ locally looking at the shading) and significantly further West



One way or the other somewhere will get soaked, but just who, and how soaked remains up for grabs.  


Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


Delivering its precious cargo in the parched prairies of the North Sea is the the form horse


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Tim A
23 August 2022 17:39:35
GFS is a very dry run for many.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
ballamar
23 August 2022 18:26:29
GFS could be showing the beginnings of a nice Sept heatwave - which would be great and not an unexpected outcome
Zubzero
23 August 2022 20:21:36

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=310&y=96&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1


Finally some sort of cool down as we enter September, still little sign of much rain imby though.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 August 2022 06:33:48


https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=310&y=96&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1


Finally some sort of cool down as we enter September, still little sign of much rain imby though.


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


Watch for Thursday morning - the models' uncertainty about rain on Wed or Thu or Fri this week seems to have been resolved by agreement that a cold front stalling over the SE will pep up early on Thursday with a pulse of heavy rain running N from Sussex to London to Norfolk. But you may be right, both Chichester and Cambridge on the western fringe of this may have to be content with a light shower or two.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
moomin75
24 August 2022 06:49:21
Morning all. Finally felt well enough to clamber out of bed and log in to look at the models again.
Looks like there's continued dry weather coming up - what an exceptional summer we've been having.
It's a shame for me that I had to cancel my holiday due to my illness, but thankfully I'm now on the mend and hopefully I can go away at the end of next month to make up for it.
TBH, I won't mind what the weather is at the end of September, but this pattern seems pretty stuck, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if we continued rather dry.
If we don't get a wetter than average Autumn and winter though, I fear next year will see is in a rather severe drought.
Thanks again to everyone for their well wishes. It was quite a shock to feel so ill and collapse like I did, but our wonderful NHS have me well on the road to recovery. 😀
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ballamar
24 August 2022 06:50:09
Could turn out to be a bit of an event tomorrow with some high rain in urban areas. Get ready for some sewage dumping
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 August 2022 07:02:45

WX summary temp charts show W europe still generally warm in week 1 but with cooler weather moving down from the N in week 2, some parts of Germany looking quite cold for the time of year. Britain on the edge of this N-ly plunge is looking close to average. Patchy rain across Europe week 1, in week 2 the heavy rain on the Atlantic shown yesterday has shifted E-wards with one band down from Iceland through the N Sea to the Alps and another linking with this through the Baltic and across Russia.


Jet  - much less active than shown yesterday; nothing until Sat 3rd then instead of a well-defined loop to W of Britain, more streaky and mainly to the E matching the WX shift in forecast rain above


GFS Op - LP sliding past N Scotland though FAX shows some trailing fronts across the UK (one giving thundery rain in the SE Thu) but from Sat 27th pressure rises from the north - again a warning, Carol Kirkwood saying on BBC that the models were uncertain for end of BH weekend. HP retreats to Atlantic Fri 2nd with LP running down the N Sea and introducing N-lies until  pressure rebuilds from the SW  Thu 8th


GEFS - for the SE, a burst of rain tomorrow then dry until around Mon 5th, mean temps near or a little above norm but with a fairly wide spread in ens members as time goes on. Apart from that initial rain, rest of country much the same.


ECM - similar to GFS until Thu 2nd when HP persists across the N, no LP running down the N Sea but instead LP beginning to push up from France


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Jiries
24 August 2022 07:20:48

Could turn out to be a bit of an event tomorrow with some high rain in urban areas. Get ready for some sewage dumping

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Might see that in Slough tonight before going  home to dry Midlands.  Warm all the way and comfortable temperatures in low to mid 20s.


 

The Beast from the East
24 August 2022 07:34:12

Could turn out to be a bit of an event tomorrow with some high rain in urban areas. Get ready for some sewage dumping

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


We need the rain, just not too much in one go! 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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