It would be interesting to see how the first day in the autumn when temperatures dip below 0C has changed in the last 50 years for selected locations across the UK. Not sure if it's easily available?

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Never mind autumn, I'm pretty sure some years we haven't had an air frost round here till after Christmas, but maybe that's my imagination!

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I see today’s promised rains have delivered precisely 0.0mm for my locale as the driest washout summer in human history continues with no end in sight.

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Same here no rain despite apps over reacting it.  Just passing clouds.  From tomorrow onward looking warmer and settled to the end of the month.

I think you're right.

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A few spots of  rain here but nothing measurable. 

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Thursday could end up fairly wet in the SE and East Anglia looking at arpege

The amount of hesitation in BBC forecasts and the amounts & timing of rainfall, at least in the SE, suggest a degree of instability in the models even for this week. But as it stands now:

WX temp summary showing as yesterday a retreat of heat southwards; if anything, Uk is cooler in week 2 than previously shown with cool air working in from the NW. Scattered rain across W Europe in week 1; then a lot of rain extending from the Atlantic to France, Britain and Scandinavia week 2

Jet - nothing much at first but from Thu 1st a loop develops W of Britain and intensifies and moves E over the following week.

GFS Op - pressure remains fairly high over Britain, any LPs off to the NW, for the rest of August, then Lp 985mb Hebrides Fri 2nd moving E across Scotland followed by N-lies then good old-fashioned dartboard LP pops up off W Ireland 975mb Thu 8th. An ex-hurricane appearing later on on the Atlantic doesn't seem to connect with any of this.

GEFS - fairly warm in the S this week but after that unexceptionally near norm for two weeks. Some rain Thu 25th (but not on MetO) then dry until around Sat 3rd (some ens members keep the rain going in the N). 

ECM - similar to GFS but pressure slack and on the low side over the BH weekend - though the arrival of the first deep LP on Fri 2nd is agreed

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Rain remains illegal here. It attempted to return yesterday and this morning but on both occasions was rapidly sent packing with only a few drops of the vile stuff reaching the ground. 

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All models show a narrow streak of pretty heavy rain moving up from SSW to NNE on Thursday, but the total intensity and the exact longitude of this varies quite a lot.

This morning's GFS has it over Kent, and maxing at 13mm over Thanet

ECM has it in a similar place but a bit heavier:

 

In both cases London and Westwards gets virtually nothing.

But UKMO is even heavier (up to 50mm+ locally looking at the shading) and significantly further West

One way or the other somewhere will get soaked, but just who, and how soaked remains up for grabs.  

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be great if the more extreme options come off, every chance could end up dry as well with it missing to the east!

hopefully a soaking on the cards

100% and regularly. Frosts are now a rarity “here” in winter. One of the pluses of global warming. 

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There was rain on M40 Junction for Oxford area on my way to Slough. Looking very nice ahead after this boring weather lately.

If they are showing high 20s for the SE then it gone wrong as it very overcast. cool and rainy in Slough.   Still decent later and to the weekend. 

It's over 28c in Suffolk again today Jiries.  East Anglia again the place for heat .

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Delivering its precious cargo in the parched prairies of the North Sea is the the form horse

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GFS is a very dry run for many.

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GFS could be showing the beginnings of a nice Sept heatwave - which would be great and not an unexpected outcome

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=310&y=96&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Finally some sort of cool down as we enter September, still little sign of much rain imby though.

Watch for Thursday morning - the models' uncertainty about rain on Wed or Thu or Fri this week seems to have been resolved by agreement that a cold front stalling over the SE will pep up early on Thursday with a pulse of heavy rain running N from Sussex to London to Norfolk. But you may be right, both Chichester and Cambridge on the western fringe of this may have to be content with a light shower or two.

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Morning all. Finally felt well enough to clamber out of bed and log in to look at the models again.
Looks like there's continued dry weather coming up - what an exceptional summer we've been having.
It's a shame for me that I had to cancel my holiday due to my illness, but thankfully I'm now on the mend and hopefully I can go away at the end of next month to make up for it.
TBH, I won't mind what the weather is at the end of September, but this pattern seems pretty stuck, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if we continued rather dry.
If we don't get a wetter than average Autumn and winter though, I fear next year will see is in a rather severe drought.
Thanks again to everyone for their well wishes. It was quite a shock to feel so ill and collapse like I did, but our wonderful NHS have me well on the road to recovery. 😀

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Could turn out to be a bit of an event tomorrow with some high rain in urban areas. Get ready for some sewage dumping

WX summary temp charts show W europe still generally warm in week 1 but with cooler weather moving down from the N in week 2, some parts of Germany looking quite cold for the time of year. Britain on the edge of this N-ly plunge is looking close to average. Patchy rain across Europe week 1, in week 2 the heavy rain on the Atlantic shown yesterday has shifted E-wards with one band down from Iceland through the N Sea to the Alps and another linking with this through the Baltic and across Russia.

Jet  - much less active than shown yesterday; nothing until Sat 3rd then instead of a well-defined loop to W of Britain, more streaky and mainly to the E matching the WX shift in forecast rain above

GFS Op - LP sliding past N Scotland though FAX shows some trailing fronts across the UK (one giving thundery rain in the SE Thu) but from Sat 27th pressure rises from the north - again a warning, Carol Kirkwood saying on BBC that the models were uncertain for end of BH weekend. HP retreats to Atlantic Fri 2nd with LP running down the N Sea and introducing N-lies until  pressure rebuilds from the SW  Thu 8th

GEFS - for the SE, a burst of rain tomorrow then dry until around Mon 5th, mean temps near or a little above norm but with a fairly wide spread in ens members as time goes on. Apart from that initial rain, rest of country much the same.

ECM - similar to GFS until Thu 2nd when HP persists across the N, no LP running down the N Sea but instead LP beginning to push up from France

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Might see that in Slough tonight before going  home to dry Midlands.  Warm all the way and comfortable temperatures in low to mid 20s.

 

We need the rain, just not too much in one go! 

 

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