All models show a narrow streak of pretty heavy rain moving up from SSW to NNE on Thursday, but the total intensity and the exact longitude of this varies quite a lot.
This morning's GFS has it over Kent, and maxing at 13mm over Thanet
ECM has it in a similar place but a bit heavier:
In both cases London and Westwards gets virtually nothing.
But UKMO is even heavier (up to 50mm+ locally looking at the shading) and significantly further West
One way or the other somewhere will get soaked, but just who, and how soaked remains up for grabs.
Originally Posted by: TimS