I'd messed the link up. Was ment to show the 216 chart. 

Would bank that set up now for January 

Very nice set-up for very warm to hot air flow from SE here then same set-up bring cold and snowy weather, wish we have this like they do in Japan.

Forecasts unstable into week 2 - after yesterday's revival of summer in week 2, W Europe is shown this morning on WX as no more than pleasantly warm and some quite cool patches as far S as N Spain and the Alps. But at least temps hold up for W Europe week 1, while the cool threat from the NE remains. The rainfall forecast also changes dramatically; well distributed week 1, as yesterday, but in week 2 a huge wodge (there's that technical term again) situated from W of Ireland across to the N Sea.

GFS shows HP moving in from the SW, hanging around though moving a little northwards until Fri 2nd when Atlantic LP to NW and continental LP over France join forces, to form LP 990mb in the SW approaches Sun 4th. This hangs around mostly just W of Ireland until Wed 7th (its exact position will dictate whether Britain is cool and wet, if its close or whether some warmth gets imported from the S, if it stands further off). It then moves E-wards while its place is taken by a new Atlantic LP, which is augmented by an ex-hurricane Fri 9th/ Sat 10th.

GEFS mean temps close to norm, perhaps a little warmer Wed 31st in the S and a little cooler Wed 7th generally, rain ramping up from Fri 2nd. 

ECM (12z -I'm out for the day and can't wait for the 0z release) similar to GFS but the LP Fri 2nd and following stays much further W in the Atlantic, offering warmer and drier weather for Britain in the days following

 

 

 

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Potential for a much more unsettled September- welcome rain and cooler temps. Shame really!

Rains and cooler temps are not welcome at this moment with the news of energy bills going up so we need temperatures to maintain on the warm side. Rain not needed as there lot of dew moisture are feeding the grass to green now.  Current warm temps will keep safe indoors on the warm side.  

As DEW mentions, the position of that low next weekend is critical for what sort of weather we'll get. Could be anything from a mini-heatwave (as per GFS Control run) to a cool washout (more akin to the Op run).

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It's November to March that really matters for bills. A cool September and even a coolish October probably wouldn't make much difference.

I am - through stupidity - on a fixed tariff that is almost twice as high as the energy price cap (12.5p per KwH vs 7p) so my winter bills are going to be enormous. Latest estimate is around £1.5k per month. I shall be waging a thermostat war all winter I expect, as well as firing up the wood burner as much as possible.

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12.5p? I assume you are talking gas there. I am all electric and pay 31.4p during the day and 20.4p at night! Believe me I have been scavenging every scrap of wood I can get for the burner (and the air source heat pump is being installed next week).

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06z has the slider. Wet for the west. will it make it to the SE?

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Here in France -  20cents, 17.2p, and that's actual, including standing charge,  calculated from my last bill.  Something really wrong in the UK!

 

Chris H

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Good lord, - 1.5k that an outragous amount to pay - you must live in a castle! ours combined is less than 100 in the summer

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My gas price will be in line with the price cap in October but electricity  until MAY 23 (due to Octopus being generous following an error on their part) is 14p/kWh and 5p/kWh for 4 hours in the night. Might be cheaper for me to run electric heaters and the electric fire than the boiler.

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Currently using £1,000 of Oil (current prices) a year for the Central Heating and 2,500 units of electricity a year for a 2,700 sq. ft. house (we do have solar panels though) so not too bad considering. 

Climate down here is quite moderate in the winter and key rooms are south facing so get a lot of solar gain even in the winter.  Stayed quite green through the summer even though the models and forecasts would suggest otherwise, mainly due to the proximity to the sea which throws un-forecast showers our way quite regularly (our own micro climate).

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Very off topic but also very important! The latest cap announced is 14.76p for gas, forecast to jump another 50% or so in January 2023! So that might not be such a bad fixed rate after all. 

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looking more unsettled at the end of next week.

We’ve changed the roof design of our build so we can fit solar panels and battery to help pay for the running of our ASHP.

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WX temp forecasts showing some stability this morning; like yesterday temps declining over W Europe in the next two weeks to a pleasant autumn value, but with something much cooler over Norway and W Russia continuing to establish. Remaining really hot in S Mediterranean and Caspian areas. Patches of rain in week 1 over NW Britain, Alps and W Russia resolve into more general rain in week 2 in a broad band stretching across Britain up through the Baltic and into W Russia.

FAX showing HP developing over Britain for the weekend but with weak fronts embedded, first in the S then the N.

Jet inactive at first but loop appears W of Britain Sat 3rd , moving E and breaking up only to be replaced by by another a week later.

GFS Op looks like yesterday, HP moving up from the SW to become centred over Scotland (some cool NE-lies for the E Coast) but collapsing Fri 2nd as Atlantic and continental LPs join up and form a trough down the W side of Britain. by Sun 4th this has deepened 985 mb W Ireland and (despite yesterday's hopes) large enough to dominate Britain so no import of warmth from the S. This drifts slowly E-wards and after brief ridge of HP Fri 9th, new LP near Iceland extends a broad trough S-wards to affect all Britain Sun 11th. Small ex-hurricane near Nova Scotia Fri 2nd, not much influencing Atlantic weather.

GEFS - mean temps near norm, tendency for a little higher at first, a little cooler in week 2, rain in most ens members from time to time after Sat 1st, some high totals at first in the NW.

ECM - resembles GFS but the LP on Fri 2nd and after is like yesterday positioned further W, taking up a position Sun 4th 1000mb well SW of Ireland, and being more distant promotes the import of warm air from the SE affecting especially England through to Tue 6th

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I don’t live in a castle, just a largeish semi-detached townhouse. 

That’s a winter monthly estimate. I’m spending about £300 a month in summer with no gas heating. The annual estimate from Octopus is £7,500.

Basically I was stupid and chose a fixed deal because I didn’t realise the price cap only applied to standard variable tariffs. It’s now too late to change until Feb. So hence I’m on 12.5p per KWH for gas. 

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another heatwave from ECM

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I'm in a similar situation to you. I'm currently paying £720 a month fixed rate after the previous rise. Hope Mrs Truss freezes it at that, anymore and even I would struggle to pay!

 

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ECM shows how we could get very warm again which would be fantastic. The rain will come eventually

If they continue to trend pushing further SW we will get very warm temperatures and keep us safe from heating turn on as those LP that stay over UK are the lethal type of weather in summer months it can last for weeks, temperatures very cold and heating need to put on eventually, I had to put heating once last year August after weeks of very cold temperatures, wet and overcast due to LP stuck over us.  That Low look like going to Biscay as they done many times this summer.  I wonder if Portugal west coastal area had a wet summer this year while rest of western Europe have a drought summer.

Be good if we could keep the warm weather running into the second week of October. It's happened before.

 

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I have had solar panels for since 2011, The solar panels for August have now produced the 3rd most power in that time span and will easily beat the prevous August record. I live in somerset.

GFS and GEM appears to be bringing Autumn in bang on schedule at the start of September. 

ECM considerably warmer at 10 days, so anyone's guess really, but it's been a marvellous summer, whatever happens now.

We could do with a cool, wet September to (in my view) enhance the chances of an interesting winter, although many will fear the worst if we get a cold one given the financial climate.

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