06z control also a horror show.

Looks like those boilers will need to come on sooner than we hoped

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Or thermal undies and woolly sweaters to save on heating bills. 

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I wear the thermals now at night when star gazing.......

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I have hot water panels, and have not had to use any gas for heating since the end of April, also a record - in previous years there have always been a cloudy spell here or there when the hot water needed topping up from the boiler.

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yeah but you say that every other day between the heat wave is coming back posts. All very uncertain 

same here in Newquay. Got mine in 2011. Never ever thought they would be the best investment I ever made. 

WX temp charts much as yesterday - pleasantly warm and somewhat above norm for W Europe (though no longer hot) while cold air definitely below norm menaces from W Russia. Rain in patches in week 1 - Atlantic SW of Britain, Alps, W Russia - linking up to form a larger area across Britain down across the Alps and into the Balkans. This rainfall pattern supported by BBC forecast this morning.

GFS Op - consistent with yesterday, current HP drifting N to Scotland (best in the west with NE-lies down E coast) to Thu 1st when breaking down with Atlantic LP linking to LP over France and settling 1000mb SW England Sun 4th (BBC suggesting heavy rain with flooding in places) Eventually moves E to N Sea by Thu 8th and pressure rises for a while only for another LP to establish Wales 1005mb Tue 13th

GEFS - mean temp not far from norm, a little above in week 1, a little below in week 2, but ever more rain in most ens members from Sat 3rd for several days, and not entirely dry thereafter.

ECM - similar to GFS but as yesterday, the LP around Sun 4th standing somewhat further W, so minimising chances of rainfall and importing some warmth from the Continent, at least for the east of Britain.

 

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From the look of the 12z Op and ensembles the 3rd to 7th should give us some good rain before going back dry-ish again. Might even need to cut the lawn for the 1st time in well over a month

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The weather gods look determined to make sure it pisses down for Mad Liz’s inauguration

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WX temps continue the theme of reasonable warmth over W Europe gradually being eroded by significantly colder air from the NE, just about working its way into Poland and Sweden by week 2. Rain in week 1 concentrated in patches - off SW Ireland, the Alps and W Russia - and in week 2 these patches joining up into a more or less continuous band (including S England!)

Jet - not much until Sat 3rd when loop develops W of Ireland, and then continues from Thu 8th to run as twin streams/streaks N and S of UK, the S stream getting entangled with an ex-hurricane from Sun 11th

GFS Op - a well forecast outcome for this week; Hp over Scotland to start with, declining Fri 2nd as trough establishes from Iceland to Brittany, developing a definite centre 995 mb off SW Ireland Sun 4th. This slowly fills and pressure over Uk rises for a while before the ex-hurricane which has been on-off threatened for a while appears in mid-Atlantic Fri 9th and heads for Biscay Tue 13th.

GEFS - mean temps near norm, a little  above at first and a little below later, rain in nearly all ens members frequently from Fri 2nd, most concentrated around Mon 6th (S), Sat 4th (N), maybe a little drier around Sun 11th.

ECM - very much like GFS; if anything the trough on Fri 2nd slower to develop but in the end it does so; and the ex-hurricane appears a day earlier

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Bye bye Summer. Was nice knowing you, RIP. (If a bit hot at times - 40c arrghh!)

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When did it leave?

Looks reasonable going forward. Some rain in a few days but still rather warm

1st. September we shall have a sunny warm day.

 

Weather Lore Calendar     Fair on September 1st, fair for the month. 

 

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It hasn’t. Mid 20s here again today and looks great for the realistically foreseeable  

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Good riddance and glad to see the back of it. September might deliver more sunny days in between the rain times. Today really cold 18C and cloudy for no reason when it meant to be nice BH with low to mid 20's.

It has been here. Upper 20s on Saturday as well 

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WX temp charts show seasonal cooling down for Europe, the west holding on to the last of the summer warmth for week 1, but definitely cooler to the NE; and by week 2 any hot weather is only for the Mediterranean and Black Sea. Rain in week 1 in discrete areas - W Britain, Alps, W Russia - becoming more widespread and further S and E week 2.

GFS Op consistent with previous forecasts for this week; current HP declines and by Fri there is a shallow Trough down the W of Britain resolving into complex LP over Ireland 995mb by Mon 5th, slowly filling and moving to SE England Sat 10th. Then a general rise of pressure from the SW, pumped up by hurricane in mid-Atlantic (more intense than shown yesterday so maybe not 'ex') which however looks as if it will run N to Greenland Mon 12th, not W to Brittany.

GEFS mean temp near norm generally (a little above in S at first), rain from Sat 3rd at its most intense Mon 5th and in the S a secondary peak Mon 12th but not much of a let-up in the N. 

ECM similar to GFS (LP Mon 5th just W of Ireland rather than over it)

 

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Imagine this time next week, flood warnings for the prone western areas will be order of the day. Charts look a bit soggy

WX temps after toying with a cooling for W Europe are today showing warmth resurgent from the S for France and Britain in week 2 (what was that about a zombie summer - you just can't kill it). Cold air knocking on the door of Poland, cooler into Germany too. Rain fro Brtain across to the Alps in week 1 also shifted in week 2 to Baltic and Ukraine.

GFS Op - trough developing down W side of Uk on Fri turning into LP over SW Ireland Mon 5th 990 mb filling and moving E slowly over that week, as before; on Sat 10th not one but two hurricanes on Atlantic one heading for Spain and the other for Greenland with Britain enjoying weak HP by default, still there on Wed 14th but giving way to a repeat version of the trough down the W of Britain Fri 16th. But with hurricanes appearing on the Atlantic I wouldn't regard any forecast outcome as stable, they 'make their own weather'.

GEFS - on the warm side now (or delayed a day or two in Scotland), near norm to Wed 14th, hints of an uptick after that; rain plentiful from about Sat 3rd throughout (a little drier at end of forecast period for Scotland). 

ECM - 0z available to Wed 7th and fairly similar to GFS that far, though one of the hurricanes referred to has put in an early appearance, not sure where it's going. [have to go out now, may come back and edit later when 0z fully downloaded] EDIT The 'early' appearance hurricane appears to be one which develops mid-Atlantic, presumably the one shown on NHC with a 50% chance of development in 5 days, and it heads first for  Biscay and then swings NE 985mb C England Sat 10th. The second hurricane rather loses its way in mid-Atlantic but looks to be drifting N-wards as it fills.

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To the UK via Spain/Portugal according to the 10 day chart!

Obviously at that fun time of the year where the FI swings are even more dramatic than usual as the models toy with where the energy ends up.

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Very quiet here due to very boring weather now only weirdo Mark smithy and KTtom posting very boring weather set up while rest are gone. Most people like heat to snow events set up. Still warm this week and mild nights so keep warm indoors. Hope we get a regular heatwave in September at some point.

Not sure who the "weirdos" that you mention are. However, I think that this weekend could be interesting in so far as it may bring a definitive end to the drought in Western areas at least. A lot of rain here, I expect and in the West and North of the UK. I'm not certain that the South East will see all that much however.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=fax&model=fax

 

 

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Yeah, I'll bank the latest GFS run, the ECM can **** right off.  But we are coming up to the time of year where models and then the reality becomes much more volatile. 

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Arguably if it's the frontal kind of rain, it seems easier to predict the paths it will take. This summer where the rain will fall has been a nightmare to predict. 

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Not so much the rain as we really need it big time at my neck of the wood, it's ECM's idea of 75 mph gusts along the Channel coast in the early hours that can sod off, way too soon for that.  Of course it's 10 days away and nowhere deterministic, etc. 

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