It's been a good summer here, overall, but we've never really had drought conditions. Always some rain between decent summery spells, which kept everything watered sufficiently. The lakes and rivers in N Wales and Cumbria haven't been especially low for the time of year. 

I walked around Fewston reservoir west of Harrogate at the weekend and it was really low, perhaps only 30% , you got the impression it could soon be empty although it does feed into another one so the situation might be more complex.   Many of the Yorkshire reservoirs are closer to the West Coast than the East and certainly their supply area is, in fact it must border on the supply area to the NW United Utilities reservoirs. 

I guess you have avoided a hosepipe ban as you have a good supply from Cumbria and N Wales?

Yup. Not even a whisper of a ban.

Looking on the UU site, I can see that reservoirs range from 46% ('Pennine Sources') to 98% ('Western Cumbria') as at 21/08/22. That does suggest the western fringes have been wetter than even inland a bit.

The main water sources are Haweswater & Thirlmere (Cumbria) and Dee/Lake Vyrnwy (N Wales), which stand at 56% and 55% respectively. That's below average for the time of year (67% & 84%), but Haweswater/Thirlmere is actually above the level of last year (47%)

No hosepipe ban down here either - Portsmouth water had no intentions of implementing one either the last time I checked.

Few hosepipe bans anywhere in Ireland either but while it's not anything like as bad as parts of SE England, it's been quite dry here with little rain either in July or August. A really good summer here(only spoiled by having to go to work).  But I think that there's a real break in the weather coming up this weekend. Then again, breaks in the weather have been forecast before....so we'll see if it materialises.

I had assumed that more or less all of England was in drought conditions. I obviously haven't been paying enough attention to TWO in recent weeks!

Did you not notice when you were in Shropshire? Or especially your trip to Liverpool?

As I said, a good summer, but enough rain to keep the drought away.

Actually, I thought that it was quite dry in Shropshire. Some trees were suffering(mainly younger ones)and the grass was very brown in places. Not as bad as the South East, I would think, but drought conditions nonetheless.

In Liverpool, I must admit that on the way to Anfield, I was just too busy following google maps instructions to the ground, listening to my son's predictions about the match and looking out for slightly dodgy looking Scousers who might guide me into unlit carparks. So I really didn't pay much attention to anything else. And it was dark on the way back after the match. The only thing that I wasn't too busy to notice was how friendly just about everyone was who I met in and around Anfield - and I say that without being a Liverpool supporter - all very nice people there! Although, I do wonder how you fit in around there, Saint .

The Harbour Master in Bude could clearly do with the expertise on this forum as he decided to 'flush' the Sea Canal earlier in the month without regard to the likely chance of rain and it is now basically empty https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-62730527 to make it worse the feed from the river topping up the canal had also been stopped !!

I guess he will be getting a talky talky to from the EA if he hasn't already. 

With the Atlantic hurricane season warming up , and a warning from Elizabeth Rizzini as duty forecaster on the BBC this morning that forecasts are going to be uncertain over the next week, there should be an interesting period of chart watching coming up ...

WX temp summary: W Europe hanging on to quite warm weather over the next two weeks, perhaps a little cooler than yesterday's forecast, while cool/cold air well established from the Urals across to Poland and N Scandinavia. Rain in week 1 from Britain through France to the Balkans, in week 2 still damp in these areas and more showing in W Russia.

Jet - loops settling W of Ireland Sun 4th and Wed 14th, breaking up with streaks mostly near S Britain in between

GFS Op - LP establishing W of Ireland Sun 4th 995mb slowly filling and moving E on Friday while one hurricane appears well to the SW Sat 3rd, gradually moving towards Britain, while another appears closer to US coast Fri 9th. The first of these transforms into a 'normal' depression 985mb Ireland Mon 12th whilst the other continues with storm force winds towards Greenland, eventually getting absorbed in the Atlantic circulation and contributing to a large LP 985mb Rockall Sat 17th.

GEFS - mean temp near norm, not too many outliers, through to 17th, perhaps a little warmer to start with, quite a lot of rain mainly either side of Wed 7th (front-loaded in the W), and a lesser batch around the 14th

ECM - treats the first ex-hurricane differently, allowing it to drift N and fill somewhat before heading for the SW Approaches 990mb Sun 11th. The second hurricane doesn't appear at all.

Interesting.

Today's ICON is remarkable.

That thing is a hurricane nearing Europe.

Not hurricane force winds, an actual real hurricane.

I mean, okay yeah it already looks to be starting an extratropical transition and may not be a hurricane for much longer. Still crazy though, although not quite unprecedented. Hurricane Pablo managed to get roughly here a few years back.

At least these  hurricanes will keep things warm! We need them to stall out west

The hurricane on the GFS6z. I've posted what I think is its 'last hour' as in, after this it will have completed its extratropical transition. Even so, look how close it is to the UK while still being a hurricane:

Its only a matter of time before an official one hits us, lets hope its not this year

GEFS all over the place, another "hurricane" hits the Azores on this one

Tbh I think it would be more of a meterological omg than something we should actually worry about.

If a hurricane ever does hit the UK it will be cat 1 and the strong winds will be in places fairly used to it. In the UK hurricane force winds happen every few years anyway; a Cat1 briefly producing hurricane force winds before rapidly transitioning or dying inland will still be an impressive weather event but not the most extreme in terms of wind strength.

You don't need the speech marks. That is a plain hurricane!

It isn't quite unheard of in the azors, but is still pretty rare. Ophelia came close a few years back as a cat3!

Incidentally even a TS or TD hitting the UK would be a first.

Unless, like me, you believe TS grace (2009) still had tropical characturistics when landfalling (it obviously did, shame on you NHC)

There are some crazy ensembles.

P27

I don't think this is quite a hurricane, it feels like its completed its transition. But jesus, this is about as close as I've ever seen a hurricane hit the UK mere 6 hours maybe after transition.

Wow GEM gets damn close.

Hurricane here:

Extratropical here:

GEM at 192 shows what a hurricane nearly transitioned looks like.

Clear frontal system but the warm core (just SW of occluded front) is still there. This becomes a seclusion by 198h and transition complete.

TD 5 quickly upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ I mentioned last week that the Saharan dust was settling down and that thr tropics would awake. Seems that is strating to happen.

Holy moly.

Portugal/Spain TC!

Again not entirely unprecedented. Has happened twice, inc most recently in 2020 with subtropical storm alpha

Even so. Wow!