Metcheck                     12.55c           Anomaly         2.04c

Netweather                  13.48c           Anomaly         3.09c

Peasedown St John     12.88c           Anomaly         -0.92c.

I'm surprised the CET is still as high as it is. Yes it's a cooling month, so it is usually going to be warmer earlier on, but this hasn't felt like a particularly mild start to October, certainly noticeably cooler than last year. The summer feels like a distant memory, and it was only about three weeks ago that the warmth properly went away.

Met Office Hadley C.E.T.          13.3c     Anomaly    2.7c.  provisional to 8th.

Beginning to think we might end up with a CET of 13C or even more.

Metcheck                     12.46c          Anomaly       1.95c

Netweather                  13.26c          Anomaly       2.7c 

Peasedown St John       12.45c          Anomaly        -1.35c.                   

I think October is just waiting for a month that completely trashes its record. How many Octobers have we had in the last 10-15 years that have been within 1°C of the record? And I add that very few of them have felt overly remarkable.

A December 2015 equivilent for October would result in a CET of 15.0°C!

Metcheck                 12.9c          Anomaly          1.58c

Netweather              13.04c        Anomaly          2.65c

Peasedwn St John     11.78c       Anomaly         -2.02c.      

Metcheck               11.83c        Anomaly        1.32c

Netweather            12.7c          Anomaly        2.31c

Peasdeown St John  11.73c     Anomaly       -2.07c.

Metcheck                    11.87c         Anomaly          1.36c

Netweather                 12.63c         Anomaly          12.63c

Peasedown St John     11.81c         Anomaly          1.99c.     

A very unusual situation in the foreseeable future, with a stalling MJO-like anomaly in the Western Pacific.

Phases 6-7 during a La Nina event such as we have now usually corresponds to a -NAO, but only phase 7 tends to be on the cold side for the UK. As it is, we're seeing phase 6 influencing the modelled response pattern for next week, though not without significant distortion.

This is typical the phase 6 Nina response pattern, unsettled for the UK with temps near average. Yet forecast modelling is predicting a large cut-off low to the southwest driving some impressively warm air across our shores for at least a few days next week.

We can see that the typical response pattern has a space to the west of Africa where a cut-off low could reside - but clearly it's not usually large or strong. Next week's outcome appears to be a 'freak event' where the mid-Atlantic ridge becomes so sharply amplified this Sun-Mon that a much larger that relatively cold air heads all the way down to the Azores and seeds a broad low there.

Signs are, the typical response pattern will attempt to reestablish by the weekend, putting the UK in a mobile setup with brisk westerlies and near normal temps - but by then the CET will have received a considerable upward boost. Starting to wonder if it could finish in the mid to high 12s. That will depend on whether we see a shift to an MJO phase 7 response pattern. The forecast models have been hinting at that in recent days, but inconsistently and tending to push any transition later in time.

Metcheck                        11.86c             Anomaly           1.35c

Netweather                     12.59c             Anomaly           2.2c

Peasedown St John         12.02c             Anomaly           -1.78c.  

Metcheck                  11.87c           Anomaly        1.36c

Netweather               12.58c           Anomaly        2.19c

Peasedown St John      12.01            Anomaly        -1.79c. 

I find so far October had a lot more sunshine and far much better performance than recent often dull summer. Reason is that this month had 70 to 80% sun striking more between prime hours from 9am to 4pm than last summer between the hours was 10 to 20% all the time except heatwaves that allowed all day and 70 to 90% see sun on unuseable unsocial hours from 5am to 8am and from 7pm to past 9pm.

Tomorrow full sun and it seem very easy to get sun after any rain goes.

Metcheck                   11.85c         Anomaly        1.34c

Netweather                12.57c         Anomaly        1.34c 

Peasedown St John   12.0c       Anomaly        -1.78c. 

My hope/guess of a colder second half of October has no chance, any signs in the ens have all but vanished now. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=315&y=100&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Should of known better that yet another above average borefest was on the way.