I think we will have a cold month or two over winter though probably not significantly cold. Sadly I'm not basing this in anything hugely scientific!

Simply that we've had an extraordinary run of above average months temperature wise and at some point that will end. We've never had a run this long in the whole of the CET record back to 1659 and so past experience suggests that at some point it must change as the longer it goes on for the more opportunities the natural variation of the climate has of throwing up a cold month even against the background of global warming.

Hopefully that will be this December,  January or February...but I wouldn't bet on it🤣

We don't get a vote on how we want the winter to go, you know . The weather will do what the weather will do, regardless of what we hope for.

I just hope that, if we do get cold and snow, when the weather enthusiasts on here inevitably get excited, there isn't a whole lot of sanctimonious tut-tutting by others for enjoying the cold & snow.

Sorry to be off topic. What has happened to Met Office UK observations map? 

They've been threatening to bring in the new-style map for about a month and have been inviting feedback if you clicked the trial link. It looks as if the new version is now the default - or maybe the only version.

My feedback to them was that I found the way in which the timeline jumps about difficult to handle when you look at a series of time snpshots, and that problem is still there.

I expect it to be cold this year with a lot of meandering High Pressure sometime getting into the right position for cold. But that’s my optimism and I won’t get too disappointed if it’s mild

Personally given the current situation I'm hoping for a mild winter but will enjoy any cold/snow if or when it comes. I don't imagine that there were many severe weather enthuthiasts back in 1947 that really wanted that cold & snowy winter.

But yes, the weather does what it does and hoping for this that or the other weather type makes no difference. but we really could do without any severe cold this time round.

Well...  sort of hoped there would  be a localised reversal of my observations and things woudl warm up, but things are getting silly now.

I do not recognise my own climate anymore.

I personally think that, in the right circumstances, it's perfectly fine. And this seems the right sort of circumstance. 

As for the rest of your post, I also thought we'd have a cooler October than we have (just a smidge above ave I went for). 

I can't see the above-CET sequence continuing much longer but, in this climate change era, who knows? 

Wx temp summary: over Europe still above seasonal norm  with a 'layered' look, cold in the far N, warm in the Med and the rest as the 'meat in the sandwich'; less extra warmth on the western coasts. Rain on Atlantic coasts week 1, persisting in week 2 but less intense though pushing Ne up to baltic.

GFS Op: LPs to the SW repeatedly developing and moving NE to affect Britain as they decay (Fri 21st, Mon 24th and Thu 27th) before the N Atlantic wakes up and introduces a vigorous W/NW flow with LPs N of Scotland (Sun 30th, Fri 4th)

ECM (mostly 12z): as GFS though the last of the LPs from the SW is deeper and eventually becomes a N Atlantic depression in its own right.

GEFS: gradual if somewhat irregular decline of mean temp to just below norm by Fri 4th; rain in most ens members at most times throughout though totals small for E England

This link shows the UK but I haven't found one for the regionals.

UK last 24 hours weather - Met Office

Thanks.

Indeed.  Everything to play for these days.  

What does a cool maritime climate become if its winters get warmer and wetter, and its summers get hotter and dryer?  (Oxford comma there )

Latest CFS run shows what could happen ! Obviously it changes run to run but if you like FI charts then get a look

another cold looking CFS, all with pinch of salt but getting to that time of year when the interest gets awakened 

WX temp summary: all of Europe continues above seasonal average with mild/very mild on Atlantic coasts and cold, though not unreasonably so in the far NE, in both weeks; a slight expansion of the cold area in week 2. Rain persisting heavily on Atlantic coastal countries with small patches in the far east of Europe; very dry from Poland to Ukraine in week 2.

GFS Op: LPs developing off Spain or W Ireland and running NE until Fri 28th when a deeper and more extensive LP in mid N Atlantic 960mb; this never far from W Ireland and with similar central pressure to Fri 4th, then filling and moving across Scotland leaving a trough trailing out to the SW.

ECM (mostly 12z): similar to GFS to Fri 28th when mid Atlantic LP not as deep (though higher pressure over France means SW gales even stronger) but then this LP moves N and takes up the usual autumnal position over Iceland with strong W-lies.

GEFS: much as yesterday with temps decreasing  gradually but irregularly from mild now to just below norm Mon 6th, and rain showing up on most days in one ens member or another. Some big totals in SW but amounts in e.g. East Anglia very small.

Looks as though it's another example of a disimprovement - a change declared by management to be an improvement which actually makes things worse than they were before.

On the subject of model output, the weather appears to be unpredictably changeable.

On it goes.

Hints of a cool-down as we enter November. Hopefully a more seasonal month 

Looking particularly moist and breezy for most of us in the next fortnight, I think we'll be going from a rainfall deficit to having too much of the stuff. But at least it will be mild.

I've only looked at this today. The difference between the laptop MetOffice site and the phone app has always to me been very marked. The regional observations now seemed based on the timeline, not sure if anything prior to real time is historic and beyond that is predictive. Perhaps I am just guessing but the German based Weather and Radar app I use does appear to do this. 

As far as Regional variations are concerned it is possible to drill in and out of the map, but I assume this is common knowledge.

What I am impressed with is the surface pressure map on the phone app, a great improvement on the original.

WX temp summary; week 1 continuing above norm for Europe and very much so in far W; some cooling in week 2 in the W, larger area of cold showing up in far NE (and not before time). Plenty of rain  for Atlantic coastal countries in both weeks, some showing up in Alps in week 2.

GFS Op: current LP moving up from the SW to become broad area over Scotland 995mb Mon 24th; repeat with new LP off W Ireland to NI Fri 28th; then deep LP near Iceland dominating weather for a week with strong W/NW-lies; this drops S-wards to form extended trough N-S across Britain with twin centres Hebrides and Biscay Sat 5th 990mb; then with input from Iceland this trough re-organises into depression 980mb off W Scotland Mon 7th.

ECM (12z in later stages) ; similar to GFS but LP Fri 28th never gets away from NI  before the LP from Iceland establishes; the latter not as deep and standing further off so winds are more W/SW than W/NW.

GEFS; as yesterday with if anything milder at first, but mean temp decreasing irregularly to just below norm by Mon 7th, and rain from time to time, likely to be heavier towards end of forecast period in S, and especially heavy at any time in far W

FWIW, the 12z GFS op has a widespread date record for next Friday, with 21C widely across the SE.

MetO has 18C at the same time, so might be worth keeping an eye on...

Need full sunshine and se winds to deliver those late warm temps but the apps say no and dish out 24 hours rain even for London as they put 15C night time mean wet night and not clear warm 15C minimum with cloudy wet days and 18C which MetO going for seem realistic.  I had recorded 20C on 31st Oct under very sharp blue skies before. 

This morning's GFS really ramps up the warmth on Friday, albeit it's a little earlier than yesterday's offering - it has 20C here at 1 AM on Friday morning, with an overnight low of 17. The plume is even stronger further east, Margate for example has a low of 19C.

Quite remarkable any time of year, but in the dying days of October? Almost certainly record-breaking if it were to come off... plenty of time for that to change though!

Going to be very wrong between over reacting rain obsessed apps want 24 hours rain or warm sunny 20C in London from GFS.  Night time 13C here to 19C And London 15C to 20C but 24 hrs of rain on apps? Nuneaton see this month at best 17C when we had full sun but cant see 19C be reach under the rain as it would be 12 to 14C instead.  GFS v rain obsessed apps? 

Anyway, back to the charts - and as I'm home again I can wait for ECM to download its 0z. Thanks to Darren for the extended ECM meteograms, but I think I'll find them too time-consuming for a brief review of the whole country; so I'll leave you to research your local area.

WX temps - still very mild for Europe as a whole and doubly so for Atlantic coasts in week 1; week 2 shows more seasonal cold for N Russia and this spreads into Scandinavia as well. Continuing very wet on Atlantic coasts, especially Britain, and also moving further inland to affect France in week 2.

GFS Op - the recent pattern of LPs developing to the SW and running up across Britain continues, with such LPs arriving Mon 24th (995mb, most of Britain), Fri 28th (980mb, off NW Ireland) and Wed 2nd (990mb N England but starting from a more W-ly point). Then a brief lull while a very deep LP develops S of Greenland, filling as it moves towards Britain then explosively deepening 970mb E Scotland Tue 8th.

ECM - resembles GFS until Fri 28th but then promotes HP for most of Britain with 1030mb anchored over the N Sea for week beginning Mon 31st

GEFS - warmer and drier for the SE around Fri 28th, then cooling to just below norm by end of period (8th) and rain returning. The warmth less pronounced and the rain more continuous the further N & W, indeed, little of either trend showing for Glasgow