WX temp anomalies still highly positive for all of western Europe and quite large in eastern Europe. But over the next two weeks the colder area in E Russia expands (some v cold E of Urals) also affecting mountain areas in the Alps and Caucasus, still quite mild in W Europe, while the Med and its coasts remain warm. Rain on Atlantic and coastal areas in week 1; a change to week 2 as this area moves N and projects E into the S Baltic; S England looking dry.

FAX shows troughs crossing Britain from the W, notably on Tue 1st (LP 998 mb Wales) but struggling to reach the SE later

GFS Op shows LP somewhere to the W or NW of Britain for the next 2 weeks (the LP on Fax no more than a dent in the isobars in this model) with winds moving round from the SW at first round to NW at the end. Winds notably strong SW Sat 5th due to LP 930mb SW Iceland and again strong NW Mon 14th due to LP 960 mb Sweden. S England rarely below 1025mb from Fri 4th, Scotland typically 1000mb for this period.

ECM has a similar pattern to GFS but pressure is generally lower across Britain with LP centres further S in the Atlantic. ECM takes a middle position between FAX and GFS for Tue 1st; for Sat 5th a trough extends S from Iceland to 985mb W of Ireland which if anything increases the strength of the gales.

GEFS temps soon dip to near norm; a little below at first switching to a little above after Tue 8th (control notably warm), with some rain throughout in most ens members even if Op suggests dry in the S, heaviest rain in W esp NW

Afterthought; I've run firework displays, and they and bonfires can be dodgy in high winds. I'd be worried if I I had an event scheduled for Saturday 5th.

Will La Nina be the dog that doesn't bark? Early days.

GEFS35 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx

comparable to July in terms of how warm it’s been - brilliant weather

6 degrees colder than July here, and I'm not far from you.

July had a 1-minute mean of 20.1C, while October's 1-minute mean is sitting at 13.8C. I'd be delighted if July came in that cold and I daresay the forums would be full of people moaning if it did!

That said, it's just under 2C above the 91-20 average here and that's pretty scary in itself.

As I said to the guys at work earlier in the week, when we (eventually) do get back down to normal it's going to come as a real shock! There might be a bit of a wait for that, as even in a week's time it's likely to be above average, just not as stupidly far above as it is right now.

not in exact terms of temperature just how extreme it’s been!

GFS it looks like warming up a tad 4th Nov 144hrs and it's now 5½ weeks till the shortest day, then the nights start drawing out, and roll on spring...

It's been wet. 

Rain is the worst weather. 

Full stop. 

Very aggressive rainfall this month so we got more than enough now but didn't bother me much, the sun hours between 9am to 3pm or 4pm, really striking more sunnier than I saw in the summer months.  October to be honest far much better month in term of useable sunshine in prime times unlike in summer stupid early and late give false representation that we got nearly 200 hours of it which 90% was all done in early to late sunshine, very rare to see sun after 9am to 4pm.

Today really feel very nice and warm since mid Sept as not reached 20C here since that time.  Weird why we get 20C now after more than 1 month ago.  Last day to see 20C and see you next year hopefully in March as no more such warm spells on the output, all leading to low teens temps in early November.  

Look like another mild to very mild after 1st week of November? 1994 type but a lot milder than what we experience in 1994.

Looking mild, but  I suppose if high pressure builds it could cool quite significantly. 

That the problem as this month had been HP free and gave us more sunshine so if HP return then back to same problem like I saw last summer.

WX temp anomalies for week 1 still above norm for Europe (bar a small patch in W Russia) but beginning to decline, and in week 2 this trend continuing as cold air spreads across the north to Scandinavia. Still some mild weather in Biscay but although sea temps for the Med remain high, the countries bordering it are also cooling. Rain in week 1 for the Atlantic, heaviest to include all of Britain; in week 2 moving N-wards (S England dry) and adding a large patch over most of Russia (must be some snow at least in the N part of that patch).

GFS Op: LP to W and N of Britain moving E-wards, closest approaches 975 mb Hebrides Thu 3rd and 975 mb NI then Scotland Sun 6th, with mostly SW-lies though not from as far S as recently. Pressure then rises generally over Britain (small hiccup Fri 11th) to 1035mb  with large HP Mon 14th centred Cornwall

ECM: Very much like GFS 

FAX still likes the idea of a much wetter day Tue 1st with LP centre in Channel 998mb at the end of a trough reaching in from the NW

GEFS: becoming cooler (just a little below norm) for a week from Tue 1st, and wet for this time, then mean temp milder again but little agreement  in ens members on either temp or rainfall after that - op and control are are amongst the mildest and driest of the runs

GFS 12z finishes with a potent northerly. Static image below, and full run viewable here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx

So much for this morning's 0z which had the northerly skimming the eastern border of Poland!

Operational seems to go into a free fall at the last 48 hours of the run. I reckon that option will be about 10 days too early.  I always look to week commencing 24th November for the point in the year when cold air can reach our shores and threaten wintry weather. 

There was some chilly weather early in the month with a couple of frosts here. Since then it has been very mild though and no need to put any heating on (just as well as we haven't had any!)

USA get blizzards, 1 to 2ft of snow, -5 to -10c day temps.

UK get wall to wall sunny weather, dry, a bit of frost and temps of 5-7C and night time just below 0C.

With this chart above with strong northerly in USA landmass produce lot of snow but why UK can't since the sea around us should aid more snowfall like lake effect snow?  

We often will at 500 meters up a hill here. North America is a continent and you answered your own question - the sea is the reason we don't get such cold. Also huge portion of North America sits above 400 meters in altitude. 

And later on in the season, once the N Sea has cooled down, Kent and East Anglia can get a lot of snow on a NE-ly wind, not unlike the 'lke effect'.

Scotland used to get lot of snow showers from a northerly before while here sunny all day, that now changed according to Richard Aberdeen posted no more anymore?

To be precise, it’s the Gulf Stream that is as important, indeed more important, than us being surrounded by the sea.

As for land above 500 metres, that’s a very small proportion - and very little land exceeds that height from the Midlands south.

That is very true. Even in the 'great plains', a lot of the land lies above 200m. 

The seas of the near Arctic have warmed considerably over the last 20 years. Showers from the north one time were nearly always certain to bring high quality snow. Nowadays, snow from the same direction is of the same quality as you would get from a returning polar maritime source. Fleeting and turns to brown sludge as soon as lands.