A sign of things to come 🥱 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

that is obviously favourite as it is the default pattern with the PV usually gaining strength as winter starts. But there are some hints it will not be so dominant with blocking getting a foothold at points. Will be more opportunities than recent for some decent cold scenarios. The high looks like shifting to allow some colder temps in the run up to December 

WX temp much as yesterday  anomalies for week 1 still above norm for Europe but beginning to decline, and in week 2 this trend continuing as cold air spreads across the north to Scandinavia. Still some mild weather in Biscay but although sea temps for the Med remain high, the countries bordering it are also cooling. Rain in week 1 for the Atlantic, heaviest to include all of Britain; in week 2 moving N-wards (S England dry) and adding a large patch over most of Russia (this patch closer to Ukraine than yesterday)

GFS Op has re-considered and now agrees with FAX in pushing a secondary depression across UK tomorrow Tue (FAX 998mb Channel) before the N Atlantic dominates; LP 975 mb passing Orkney Thu 3rd, and 985mb approaching Ireland Mon 7th before dying away. HP then pushing up from the S, at first fending off LP to NW but a full-on N-S ridge blocking the Atlantic Fri 11th but soon fading as deep LP 960mb Rockall with trough projected over Britain on Wed 16th. No sign of screaming N-lies which put i a brief appearance yesterday, whether affecting Britain or C Europe. 

ECM like GFS but with a tendency for the various passing LPs to leave a trough lingering in the N Sea

GEFS cooler to Sat 5th then mean temp back to norm until around Thu 10th with rain plentiful esp in S & W during this time. After the 10th there's too much disagreement between ens members for sensible comment - possibly milder and a bit drier with op & control really warm and rather dry.

can you link to the 20c can’t see that one thanks

Both the 9th and 10th fairly widespread 18c. Would equal the date record.  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&time=225&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3

thanks couldn’t get into those - as Moomin said definitely chance of 20c

Northern blocking showing up in deep fi!!

indeed that 18c could easily turn into a 20c

Its yet another ridiculously warm run. A record warm year CET looks in the bag atm.

yes great at the moment, signs later in November of changes for Europe, whether that happens or the warmth stays who knows. As we saw with Summer could repeat and keep UK in the warmer zone

I've gone for a CET in excess of 9.0C for this November.

It wouldn't surprise me.

December 2015 had a CET of 9.7C, so I wouldn't be surprised if November 2022 had a CET >10C.

Me neither, I think 11c+ is possible.

Has that ever been achieved?

No, the record is 10.9c something.  11c seems guaranteed this year unless we get a cold December which seems very unlikely. 

The Met Office CPF suggests an increased chance of colder than average conditions during the November, December and January period. We'll see, but in the medium term GFS 12z is pointing towards potentially record-breaking warmth.

The older I get, the less I like cold weather. So long may this continue. It will at least help an awful lot of people continue to put food on the table.

18C near Mid November is very welcome and save on heating costs, I am sure the energy companies are not happy as their expected high profits for November and this month October would be less than forecasted.  Government will still have to pay us £400 regardless if winter is all the way mild.  

I remember we were well above 11C during the middle stages of November 2015. The first half of that month really was extraordinarily mild, and it looked like we were set for a new record. What stopped it was a brief cold spell over the third weekend.

Of course that then paved way for the December, which was phenomenal.

Latest Met 3 month outlook makes for interesting reading 

Links??