I hope you're right but I assume that there must a tendency for model projections to revert close to the mean toward the end of the outlook period? 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=London

The Op and Control are very mild out beyond 10 days. Until the cooldown gets into the less than 10 days timeframe, it's not much of a guide to the future. Besides, even beyond the reliable, we're only looking at average temperatures - it comes to something when we're looking deep into FI and hoping that we just get to average temperatures.

Hmmm, a generally unsettled GFS op run, albeit a cooler zonal after day 10 or so. 

I've not been religiously watching each run and the ens but would be a departure from what was shown a day or two back and would pretty much guarantee I'll have an above average rainfall month given the deluge yesterday which was topped up by another 11mm or so from the overnight showers.

Superb isn’t it? Imagine if we had an extremely mild winter. As in virtually warm. That, for me, would be even more exciting than the summer heatwaves and extreme temps we had. The death of winter weather in the UK would be amazing!!

(for me. Most won’t agree and I do enjoy snow when it happens. It’s the frosts and cold wet weather and dark days that make my excrement itch)

No evidence and gut feel only, but surely this must be one of the biggest anomalies of all time?

I need to recalibrate the MOGREPS-G 850hPa temperature November scale.

Look how dry as well. Normally you’d expect that to have big rainfall spikes 

There has to be 18's and 19's on offer with that setup, possible 20c with a steady dryish southerly flow and no inversion. 22.4c is the number to beat to obtain the UK November heat record.

Better as now got more then enough rain so need a long break.  Bring on the warmth so less heating needed and energy companies and Ofgem will not be happy with this mild weather, less profits for them. 

... and that was on the 1st; the date records around the 13th are about 19C so a date record looks probable, if the month record is missed.

A blessing for us to use less heating but fuming by Ofgem and energy companies who was expecting cold weather to increase more on their profits.  

Enough for the area round Coventry and wherever you get your water from, maybe; but the water table of the chalk areas to the SE is still far too low for assurance of water supply next summer.

Clever wording. But not as poetic as Marty and his itchy excrement. 

That what my thinking about them are very fuming because of those never ending mild weather.  Today type of cold sunny weather in November used to be 2-6C maxes but still went over 10C that normally come with rain and clouds.   Reply to DEW post, it just we need a break from the rain at times.

WX temp summary has given up on the advance of any cold weather from Russia; week 1 shows W Europe everywhere above norm and E Europe very much above norm, while the 0C isotherm begins to look ragged. Week 2 - and this cold area has almost disappeared off the top of the map (remember that about a week ago it was advancing and menacing W Europe). Rain, week 1 as before on the Atlantic with Britain on the edge of the heaviest area, plus some in the Adriatic; week 2 brings a change from yesterday with heavy rain from the Atlantic esp NW Scotland, across to Denmark and down to Italy.

FAX shows LPs close to NI/W Scotland through to Tue, then another LP approaching on Wed, and the expected collection of troughs and fronts regularly crossing Britain 

GFS Op agrees with FAX but then a rise of pressure to the SE promises dry weather next weekend before LP near Iceland 955mb Tue 15th projects a trough S-wards before settling over the Baltic as a very large area of LP, enough to give Britain N-lies through to Mon 21st and beyond ( and a brief embedded secondary LP 980mb Hebrides Sat 19th). These N-lies probably show up too late to affect the WX averages above.

ECM similar to GFS but the LP Tue 15th is nearer Norway, and Britain looks less wet (showers?) on a brisk NW-ly

GEFS for England and E Scotland- rain to Thu 10th and temps near norm followed by a dramatic rise in temp, max 8C above norm and dry either side of Sat 12th, after which most ens runs decline to norm (Op quickly, control slowly) by Sat 19th with increasing probability of rain. Similar in NW, Scotland and NI but that peak of temp only +5C and never really dry; rain pretty well certain later on and in quantity.

Watching BBC weather yesterday saying LP to the west/norwest and HP to the right over europe together will continue pumping warm air upwards across the British Isles next week

More like 1988 to 1989 set up.  Ofgem and Energy companies will be gashing their teeth seeing the mild forecasts.  

Why would Ofgem be upset? Besides it is quite chilly here today and the jet has kicked in several times. The coming week should be (very) mild but I’m not sure about beyond then, as it looks much closer to the average for the second half of November which would feel chilly compared with much of the autumn so far. 

Personally I want it to stay as mild as possible for as long as possible but I guess there will come a time (second half of November would be my guess based on current output) where things become much more “average”.

Going by the 0600z GEFS, there is a pretty strong signal for the  mid month spell of well above average temps to be followed by a decline to something near (or dare I say it!), a little below normal later on.

They are both into this as if Ofgem really supposed to protect customers but did not want to and dish out very high prices and not following like other countries lower price increases.  

Quite a few contradictions today ...

WX summary with no surprises in week 1 - Europe above/well above norm with a patch of colder weather to the NE. But a dramatic change from yesterday in week 2, instead of the cold weather fading away there's a massive incursion of cold from Siberia down to Romania. W Europe unaffected for now, but little sign of the warmth from the south predicted for next weekend for UK in MetO, GFS Op etc. Rain continuing on the Atlantic including Britain for both weeks (again not seen in the GFS Op for week 2), plus a couple of smaller areas in the Med and the Black Sea

GFS Op - current LP off Ireland moving NE and filling but not before it has projected a few troughs across Britain. A much deeper LP (947mb - FAX) close to Iceland Thu 10th but only affecting the far NW as pressure rises from the S, by Saturday 12th 1035mb Germany and moving N bringing a warm S-ly flow until Wed 16th when it links to another HP cell in the Atlantic and winds swing round to the SW. This lasts until Sun 20th when deep LP 960mb develops in mid Atlantic with trough to the S, the whole of this then moving closer to Britain. A brief spell of NE-lies over Russia around Mon 14th but not as extensive or as persistent as implied in the WX charts.

ECM - like GFS until Sun 13th. After that there's no HP cell on the Atlantic to offer a link; instead the HP retreats E-wards,  LP moves in and is centred over E Scotland 970mb Tue 15th with disturbed weather for all of Britain.

GEFS - as yesterday, cool and wet to Thu 10th, dry and very mild, even warm, to Sun 13th, after  which rain sets in and temps decline to seasonal norm by Fri 18th. Similar temp pattern for all, but the rain never really clears from the far NW

Could be some records going next week.

It's like living in " model doldrums", looking perhaps for signs of some exciting weather, (somewhere), like an explosive cyclogenesis or a beastly easterly hitting our shores in the coming weeks/months...