Very brief affair and quickly blown away by the main player in our Winter weather, the mighty PV 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

 

Shock to the system if it's right.

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I checked the GFS ENS for Budapest 12z yesterday it was 5.3 and this morning 06z shows 3.4c and 12z today (for 18th showed 0.8 and now recently the 18z has the 850 to -0.8c for Budapest - so it appears that the ENS are getting colder and that there could be a cold plunge heading into much of Europe - looking at Brian's chart he posted as well. But a few days too late for a white birthday! - Last white Birthday was in Krakow, Poland in November 2007.

2 days until budapest and can't wait! - last year I was in Stockholm and on the last day the temperature reached a balmy +12c before the cold came the following week.

Back the models - this would be a shock to the system if this came about and I can't remember the last time we had a proper cold snap/spell in November!?

12z ECM shows much of Europe in warmth in mid teens but the latest GFS 18z Operational run shows parts of Europe locked into the freezer or sub-zero daytime maxes by 19th November however this run is one of the coldest ENS member. Plus it is (as always) a long way off as well.

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The 0z GFS run is fun. It doesnt bring the cold in like last night, but indicates some huge pattern change. A scandy high again with two attempts, next week sees disrupting and sliding lows, but the high is just a bit to far north.

The ensembles are starting to get that ‘look’. Less noise, clear trend downwards and tighter clustering. I’ve entered the garden path.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069

144hrs

ICON: www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ICOOPEU00_144_1.png

GFS: www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_144_1.png

UKMO: www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

GEM: www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU00_144_1.png

 

 

 

 

 

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Interesting pattern developing later on. The enormity of that mild-bringing HP over central Europe gets sucked up directly to our north. The potential for cold would fit Met office long range forecast for the end of this month into December.

WX temps for week 1 still everywhere above seasonal norm and up to 6C above in places, but with cold air accumulating over NE Russia. In week 2, a general cool down for W Europe, and the cold area expands as far as the Polish border as well as Scandinavia away from the Baltic with some very cold weather making an appearance in NE Russia. Rain in week 1 on the Atlantic and nearby coasts, decreasing in week 2 to patches over the North Sea and Tyrrhenian Sea. The absolutely dry area shown yesterday much reduced, now mostly N Ukraine.

GFS Op shows HP building over Europe (1035mb Switzerland Sat 12th) with consequent mild S-lies for Britain for the weekend. The HP drifts N, to N Norway 1030mb Wed 16th while LP pushes in from the Atlantic across Britain and beyond - centres 975mb SW Ireland Tue 15th, 975mb W Scotland Thu 17th and 995mb Irish Sea Sat 19th. There is then a rather indeterminate set of charts with pressure generally high, centred 1040mb Russia and 1030mb Azores by Fri 25th, with Britain affected by weak troughs in between. Yesterday's Scandi HP has not survived into today's chart but  today's novelty is an interesting prospect for surfers at Nazare with local deep LP 990mb off the coast of Portugal Sun 20th.

ECM largely copies GFS though the LP on the 19th pushes further into Europe on the 20th; and there's a more definite NE-ly starting up in Siberia at this time.

GEFS has quite good agreement between ens members for inordinately mild weather and dry to Mon 14th. with a quick return to seasonal norm and frequent rain for the rest of the forecast to Sat 26th. As ever the SE gets the best of the mild weather but the least wet, for a change, looks like being in the NE

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To be fair although brief, the end of Nov 2021 snap was pretty cold
We were running at very high anomalies not dissimilar to this year until the final week when we ended up with widespread cold and (in my not particularly northerly or high ground back yard anyway) some snow.
I remember it as probably the best cold snap of the entire winter season and was the first November snow lying in this region that I recall since the end of Nov 2010.
The month finished only on average temps as a consequence

Hmmm, Scandi High possibilities floating around peaking interest 

 

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

 

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Regarding the medium range outlook, looks like a "battleground" type scenario with huge high pressure over Europe and Atlantic lows both refusing to yield and as always the UK is in the middle of it. It can result in many days of mild and dry conditions for my neck of the woods, but also constant in-your-face southerly winds. Pretty much like today!

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I remember it - a light dusting of snow here. 

Rest of the winter was pants.

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That storm at the end of November ( Arwen? ) brought us by far the biggest snowfall of the "Winter" albeit in Autumn.

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Saturday 27th November 2021, we woke to a dusting of snow. Then the next day, it came hard and fast in the afternoon, we cut short our visit to a garden centre as it was settling quickly.  We got a couple of inches that stayed for a day. 

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The event on Sunday 28th was remarkable in that we were in a Northerly and the system was supposed to go down the Irish sea coast. Somehow it retained strength over the Lakes and moved SSE without losing intensity,  I haven't seen that happen before.  It was -1c during the snowfall not even marginal here and a snow on snow event.  Days like that are rare. 

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One point I'd make is that these blocks building from the south rarely deliver cold and frosty weather IME. More often than not the outcome is the high pressure remains centred a tad further south than models were signalling in the 5 to 10 day ranges and consequently winds are stronger and from more of a southwesterly direction. The fabled surface level "faux cold" turns out to be mild at the surface and aloft. I think about 10 days ago some of the models were suggesting we'd by now be entering a period of quiet weather and lower temperatures. The outcome is anything but. 

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Thousands of trees around here are still down after that storm with northerly gales. We lost 300 on our estate. Snow followed here too

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Same here. Lots of paths still impassible

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

The last couple of GFS runs have the op showing much.milder conditions developing again later in the month. Let's hope that doesn't become any.more of a trend.

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The limited amount of cold appearing even at the outer edge of the medium range ensemble models is breathtaking.  

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Yes, it appears our weather is being influenced by that semi permanent high pressure which has been anchored to our SE for over a year. It gives occasionally to allow a west, southwest feed but reasserts it’s self soon after.

Could the Dessert high be migrating north? 

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Isn't it just one small part of an ongoing trend over a number of decades? To my simple mind it fits well with what Paul Bartlett was talking about years ago. 

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WX charts continue to show temps above norm for Europe esp high around the Baltic, but with a mass of cold air over Russia threatening, there is for the first time in a long while an area below norm, admittedly a long way off in the far NE. The mass of cold continues its progress E-wards in week 2, 0C isotherm not quite reaching Poland but with streaks of 0C in mountainous areas as far as the Alps - and the ultra cold (below -20C) has definitely expanded in NE Russia. Still mild in the SW, from Biscay S-wards. Rain continues on the Atlantic including Britain, with a separate patch around the Adriatic, and quite a large area of completely dry weather between these two, more so than yesterday.

GFS Op has HP well established over continental Europe (1035mb Switzerland Sat 12th) with S-lies for Britain over the weekend. By Thu 17th this HP has been squeezed into a narrow ridge Adriatic to Baltic from both sides (970 mb Ireland and 995mb Novaya Zemlya) but re-establishes itself with the chart for Tue 22nd looking like a reload of the one for this weekend (1040mb Poland this time). This time the HP declines S-wards (1035 mb N Spain) with Britain hanging on to mild SW-lies while Atlantic and Siberian LPs link up across Norway.

ECM like GFS until Mon 21st when the Atlantic becomes more active and pushes in across the Faeroes and disposes of any ridge of HP, and little sign of an impending re-load

GEFS has the well-forecast ultra mild weekend but temps back to norm from Tue 15th and rain setting in for most days thereafter. , some large totals in the W (MetO has active fronts dragging their way across England on 15th itself). While the Op run is one of the milder members of the ensemble later on, it isn't standing out as ultra mild as was the case in yesterday's 18z.

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After a brief flirtation with heights over Scandi looks like the repeating milder pattern from Summer will continue! There will be some chillier nights but cold looks to be pushed back - shame as it did look promising

More extremely mild South Westerlies looking likely again!!! #WinterIsOver

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Which winter chart is showing that? The ensemble data show things returning to a more seasonal picture for the second half of the month as has been shown for days now. The mild outlier ending of the GFS 12z operational run (at t850hPa) may come to fruition but is not representative of the suite.

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Yes but it's trending milder in regards to the longer term outlook and we all know that any cold charts in the extended range will always be replaced by mild South Westerlies!!!

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