One never knows sometimes. Stranger things have happened.

I am willing to bet anything that if I had come on here in mid-November 2009 and said that around a month later, a month-long freeze would be about to start, I would have been comprehensively laughed out of here. From what I recall of the output at that time, there was precious little indication of any notable pattern change later that month as most model runs showed an unrelenting atlantic conveyor belt with seemingly little if anything to stop it. I do recall though that by the last few days of the month, the op runs in FI were consistently picking up of a notable rise in heights to the north/north-west of the UK during the second week of the month.

Granted, 2009, from what I recall of it, did not have month after month of above average temperatures that this year has seen and, unlike the summer of this year, the summer of 2009 turned into something of a damp squib just like a lot of summers in that period. Mind you, 1995 had a hot & dry summer and yet look at the severe cold that developed during the festive season that year which lasted for about a week.

all I am trying to point out is the mild weather we have had does not impact our chances of cold. In fact the amount of mild air pumped up could help and bring in favourable patterns. There are signs that’s happening. Obviously could end up mild but signs are there for some colder outbreaks 

You tease!

Was a great December. 

Followed by a superb January. 

I may have to retract this given the forecasts for 100mm of rain for Eastern Scotland over the next few days, on ground which is already saturated and only just recovering from a set of flood warnings to boot.

On the other hand, the London-centric media may never notice, so it could be regionally rather than nationally reported.

WX temps for Europe show the spread of cold air from the E as far as Poland withdrawing somewhat in week 2, though with some extension S-wards around the Caspian. The hint of mildness in the far W of Europe which could have affected Britain has stalled, and Britain now looks as if it will cool down to the norm under N-ly influence. Rain from the Atlantic extending across Britain, Denmark, France and Italy continuing for both weeks, with some extension towards Ukraine in week 1.

FAX has the current LP moving to E Scotland 991mb tomorrow Friday, filling, only for the Atlantic gyre to project a new trough to Britain, with localised centres 994mb NE England Sun 20th, then 972mb NI and 990mb SE England Mon 21st, with fronts swinging E-wards over England to finish up stalling off NE Scotland.

GFS Op has the first LP (cf FAX, above) 990 mb NE England, and the second LP 980mb a day later Tue 22nd NI. The weather through to Sat 3rd remains LP dominated, first with LPs moving NE-wards past Scotland with SW-lies, then from Thu 1st SE-wards into the N Sea with NW-lies, and just a fleeting HP in between Mon 28th 1025mb England.

ECM places the LP Tue 22nd further S, 980mb Cornwall, then diverges with the Atlantic LP not moving past Scotland but settling over England 990mb Fri 25th. As compensation, the HP Sun 27th is a much more definite ridge 1025mb Biscay to Norway.

GEFS mean temp near seasonal norm to Sat 3rd, with just a couple of outrageous outliers near the end, one above, one below. Rain pretty well continuous, just a brief respite around Sat 19th in the SE

CFS is garbage. If they published verification stats for 30 days (and pointless it would be) you’d probably not get much above 50%. To illustrate the point todays CFS has a wet and mild January. 
It can be entertaining though I’ll give you that.

it can lighten the mood when it looks like endless zonality. Really don’t pay any real attention- I would say less than 50%!

GFS op run is an almost run with everything a little too far North, but the Shetland Isles might see something a bit wintry! Not that that’s very unusual, but normally from the N or NW

end with much potential of a freeze up, but as others will kindly point out way off in FI

Looks like the end is quite promising too. 

certainly and not a bad time of year to see those Synoptics. Great to see that the PV isn’t the dominant feature - even if at this time of year it will be the favourite to get its act together!

Here’s a picture of the CFS forecasting team at work

a little too accurate for them

Yes, and in both the current and new GFS Op versions.  But as you say, not much support and not a lot of consistency in the signal so far.

I’m in two minds about a cold spell, given current energy prices, but a seasonal run up to Xmas would be OK provided it’s not a howling easterly.

A decent signal for a mild start to December is possibly beginning to emerge from the noise. Runs against most expectations for the early part of the winter so very much a case of wait and see.

Mild Decembers are such a certainty these days that I don't think that anyone would actually need to be told or advised that this is likely to be the outcome since we already know (based on how it normally is anyway) that this is how is probably going to end up anyway.

Such predictability along with the sheer lack of "interesting" weather these days (especially in Edinburgh) are the main reasons why I'm struggling these days to be anything like as interested in the weather as I used to be because it never used to be like that in the past.

Growing up (born 1972), I always considered Decembers to be annoyingly lacking in cold.

We had Dec 81, obviously. But when a few years later we got a frost overnight into Xmas Day, it seemed unusual and most welcomed (but got to around 10c during the day)

My point is that despite being 50, never have Decembers been that great, especially before Xmas.

Indeed, in my lifetime we've had three brilliant spells of pre-Xmas wintriness. Two of those have happened this century (2009 and 2010).

Agreed Martin.

Cold December's are rare, even in my lifetime so far apart from 09/10 that's been about it.

Decembers to me are usually very wet, very stormy and very dark, which I have no issue with at all. It's seasonal and gives some much needed relief from hell of the endless daylight and endless heat of summer. Snows are rare in December but when they do occur, it is very beautiful, and more so than in any other winter month. December 2000 and 2010 spring to mind in this regard. 

I've given up saying what I think of CFS. GEFS35 day is a much better offering. 

out of interest what do you use for your 150 day forecast - not that I ever use it? 

I haven’t gone through the runs but the London ens could well look mild even with high latitude blocking if it’s too far north. 

Good point, but even further north it doesn't look cold towards the end of the month.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=Edinburgh