surprise that its slightly less mild than currently

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www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_120_1.png 

Yes this definitely looks less mild. In fact almost wintry in places for a time

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GFS Para is worth checking out...the run finishes with a Scandi high that migrates to Iceland. A very different scenario to the Op. As I haven’t put the heating on yet, I am also at two minds as to the desirability of this...but if it comes along, I dare say Ill be excited and need to spend more time gthering logs😂

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WX summaries show the 0C isotherm retreating steadily over the next two weeks, eventually well back into Russia and N Scandinavia. But Britain is getting a modest cool down from the direction of the N Atlantic, settling at about seasonal average. Heavy rain continues for Atlantic coastal countries from Britain S-wards for the next two weeks, plus central Med week 1 or W Med week 2.

GFS Op shows current LP NE England filling, replaced by new Atlantic trough reaching C England 975mb Tue 22 Nov. The parent depression moves to be off SW Ireland 965mb Fri 25th then running NE to Shetland leaving a shallow trough lingering over England 1000mb Mon 28th. The next LP arrives at the Hebrides 975mb Thu 1st again with an extended trough over Britain. Just a hint of HP in final frame over France Sun 4th but (Eeyore moment) even that not as well developed as yesterday's chart. EDIT and the 06z is different again with LP 995mb N Sea linking back to a parent centre N of Norway with N-ly winds setting in!

ECM copies GFS up to Fri 25th but then quite different as pressure rises strongly 1025mb Channel  Sun 27th moving N 1040mb S Norway the following day with strong S/SE winds

GEFS temps are close to seasonal norm throughout, slightly cooler week 1, slightly warmer week 2 (but control contributing a very mild run) and rain always in one ens member or another, concentrated around Fri 25th ( a dry window this weekend in the S while E Scotland recovers from the present downpours, for the rest wettest in the W, perhaps the occasional gap in the E)

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Just because December is mild, doesn't mean it won't be the coldest winter month  


Personally I've long since given up on prolonged spells of cold and snow.  A brief hour or so of slush - like winter 2020/1 - is the best I expect these days.   Entirely snowless (like last winter) being the new norm.

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Decent potential on the OP run for a Northerly outbreak

I might be misinterpreting models here, but the GFS, with each successive run, seems to bring that NE/E ly cold incursion a litlle nearer, for a little longer; the MetO Fax maintains a Cooler SEly flow above the low over the far north too.

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Don't really agree with this.

On Tuesday I mentioned that some of the MOGREPS-G ensembles were pulling colder air in from the east across the northern half of the UK, at least for a time, early next next. The GFS ops have flirted with that option too and suggested the possibility of some snow in northern Britain for a time on Monday. However, the latest GFS keeps the cold offshore:

 

The possible snow event on Monday is really now just for the Scottish hills if it is correct.

Edit: GFSP all firming up on a milder scenario in the medium term.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx?run=06&charthour=42&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

 

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Don't know whether to react or. The 06z which shows this northerly just wasn't there when I did the review based on the 0z.

Probably the 0z and 06z will both be wrong

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not to believe any output at the moment ! Keeps changing as it usually does this time of year. At least it is not showing endless south westerly’s from the Azores!

Yes, I agree with you there. While I don't share your optimism about building blocks for cold, there doesn't seem to be anything too mild in the ensembles either. Nothing wrong with a bit of optimism, mind! 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

The Op. and control have hinted at something milder early next month but only tentatively and that's still a long way off. After so many above normal temperatures, I'll gladly take a spell of average temperatures.

 

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The jury is out at the moment IMO. Recent years have often seen interesting patterns developing during the second half of the autumn before they flattened out in December and January. What seems clear at this stage is the La Nina / IOD pattern isn't firing across the North Atlantic in the way some were expecting. 

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Looks like things are firming up on a mild start to December. No surprise there then....

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GFS parallel 12Z serves up a nasty storm next weekend. Main run keeps it well clear.

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ECM offers some hope today for a decent block, the rest give more impetus to the Atlantic.

WX temp summary showing cold air withdrawing to Russia ,  even leaving Scandinavia to some extent, and instead spreading S-wards towards the Caspian. Just a hint of milder weather in week 2 spreading N-wards up the Atlantic seaboard. Rain continuing on Atlantic coasts incl Britain (a permanent feature these days!) but the Med, wet in week , drying up in week 2.

GFS Op - fleeting HP for today (and even that spoiled by stalled front on E coast) but LP pushing in from the west 995mb E Anglia Tue 22nd, then dominating British980mb  weather from the Atlantic, closer 975mb Hebrides Sat 26th, 980mb Rockall Wed 30th. While this is going on, a HP block develops over W Russia 1045mb Sat 26th, drifting W-wards and linking with Azores to form a centre over France 1030mb Fri 2nd allowing W-lies to drive over the N side deep into Siberia (hence displacing cold weather S to Caspian as above)

ECM - like GFS to Sat 26th but then the Russian HP links to a new centre N Norway, by Mon 28th 1040mb and strong S/SE-lies over UK, forming an effective block to the Atlantic

GEFS - mean temps near norm, perhaps slightly above at end of month, rain on and off in most ens members; biggest totals and most frequent in SW, very little in NE by end of week 2

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All forecasting for UK really worst than you see in 3rd world countries which have better accuracy and their own Met offices.  What happened to the 2C touted for this morning?  6C and cloudy not 2C and clear skies forecasted.  Window forecast is the only way to see right now.   

Long clear periods and frost with rural -4C forecast for NI and that is what happened. -4.2C in Co Down which is he lowest in the UK so far this Autumn.

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www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_216_1.png
Just looks to me like a Scandi High could set up from this. I know Atlantic is favourite but…

Perhaps it could but it doesn't.

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Yet another very mild spell looking more and more likely as we end November. 

 

 

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Long fetch SW winds all the way to Russia killing of any cold pooling there.  Look like Bartlett HP set up like in 1988-89.

no it doesn’t, also Bartlett highs usually get identified post event. The models do not got far enough to forecast one

ECM ramping up potential of an Easterly - whether the cold would come in time is another question!

Not seeing any sign of an easterly on the ECM? Unless you live in Greece maybe.

The GFS and GFSP don't look too unseasonal in the latter stages, I certainly don't see much sign of the "very mild spell" that keeps being mentioned on here.

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