GFSP not interested either. First wobble of the season.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx

 

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ECM still has the mega block but very little cold air to tap in to. Sign of the times.

 

 

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WX temps dancing to and fro - yesterday's forecast advance of cold air into Europe stalls at Poland in week 1 and retreats a little in week 2, while a N-S seesaw develops, milder air moving N in Biscay and colder air S to the Caspian. (But remember this is based on GFS Op which is a bit of an outlier - see GEFS). Rain in week 1 on the Atlantic including Britain plus a large area in the eastern Med, the former moving N in week 2 and almost clearing Scotland, the latter shrinking.

GFS Op - current LP withdrawing to Atlantic and S-ly gales developing by Sat 26th. At this stage and following days HP over France and LP running SE from Iceland take turns to influence British weather, neither very strong; for the optimists, the HP wins Tue 29th and Fri 2nd, eventually becoming a major feature 1035 mb in the Channel Thu 8th.

ECM - on the other hand develops the HP Fri 2nd into a ridge 1050mb Finland to 1030 mb Ireland with E-lies for England and looking as if the HP will intensify over the Baltic. The BBC Weather for the Week ahead, never known for pushing the boat out, last night indicated a definite possibility(?) of colder E-lies in 10 days or so.

GEFS - bursts of rain until Tue 29th, but considerably less in NE,  then drier. Temps near norm until then, after which mean is generally cool (2-3 C below norm), and would be lower if not dragged upwards by the Op and just 2 or 3 followers which are very mild.

 

GFSP follows the ECM output, positioning the ridge of HP so that winds are SE-lies rather than E-lies, and then moving it Fri 9th to W of Ireland with a strong N-ly down the far side of the N Sea

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Similar set up that brought a 40C temps.  

Also very early in the season, extremely rare to get cold Easterlies at the start of December, things would have to align perfectly in terms of bringing in a cold pool, chances much better Jan to March. 

 

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I forgot about that one pesky weekend. Without that spell we'd have made it to Jan 2016 with no frost ! 

Yeah agreed, I wouldn't build up my hopes for an Easterly especially pre-Jan it's very rare indeed. 6z looks decent however but all a long way off.

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Excellent GFS op run for early season cold

No frost for most, no snow, little sunshine and generally not that nice by the look of it.

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which is how winter should start, not fussed about snow this early but it’s a great trend setter to me

To me it just says dull with more heating needed .

You're right though that it will probably seem quite seasonal albeit not wintry (if that makes any sense for early December!)

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Cue Jiries with his hatred for illegal cloud under boring high pressure. 

After another round of blustery rain and strong winds this morning, I'm just pleased to see signs of the angry Atlantic starting to be held at arm's length for a sustained period of time.

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Almost certainly some
Sort of shift to seasonal weather to start December after a transient ridge early/mid next week.
Daily wobbles in the GFS set but Encouraging trends continue, with EC looking concertedly colder later on:

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim 

Some very mild runs now appearing in the ensembles. These modelled scandi blocks often end up resulting in very mild South Westerlies.

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t2m or t850hPa?

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Agreed. Need to look north for early winter cold.

 

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Wibble wobble wibble

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You sure you haven’t got heather to take care of? 😂

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The output is a world away from mobile westerlies and is IMO full of potential if it’s cold you like (or cool and murky if you live on the east coast of Scotland 😎).
It’s a slow burner with the potential for a flare up down the line.

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850s I suspect indicating the block being squished down allowing mild South Westerlies in

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One of these days I’ll get you to come up here in one those silly easterlies and then you’ll see. 

Some form of easterly does look like the favoured option in the medium to long term but when you say slow burner do you mean some time in March? 

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Both the GFS OP and P have some sort of easterly in la la land
Might be worth taking notice if it's still there in a week.

March for Aberdeen maybe but I’m thinking mid-December for the IOW 😂

Seriously, if people can’t get a little interested in what are pretty decent prospects so early in the season then I don’t know what will get them interested. For what it’s worth I think it will be a front loaded winter and what I’m seeing so far is starting to align in the right direction.

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You’re right, the patterns are definitely conducive to something interesting (even if that hasn’t materialised on the output just yet). It is certainly worth watching the coming runs given this trend.

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Indeed, I declare "silly season" officially open!

(The models have been hinting at a marked change in weather type for the new month, i.e. from Atlantic mush to a more Continental/blocked pattern, for a while now - but of course it's still far too far out for any certainty as to how, or even if, that will manifest).

EDIT: Probably as good a time as any to remind everyone that the full EPS suites are available on the ECM website - no need to squint at the De Bilt ensembles for wind directions etc!

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202211230000&epsgram=classical_plume&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading

 

That's the 850 plume for Reading, but there are other parameters and places to explore!

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