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Brian Gaze
24 November 2022 11:18:56


 


Yes but t2m temperatures could still be cold if high pressure is involved?


Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


I posted the 2m temp data tables on Twitter earlier this morning and the 00z update is less cold today than it was yesterday.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
24 November 2022 11:32:48


 


I posted the 2m temp data tables on Twitter earlier this morning and the 00z update is less cold today than it was yesterday.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Given that the current Op will be superseded on 29th, do you still see much value in an ensemble suite built on the old software?


It’s perhaps worth noting that both the current and new 06z Op runs both end up with a very similar pattern. At risk of being accused of ramping, there are similarities in the evolution to Xmas 1962, with a Scandi high retrogressing to Greenland and a broad northerly being driven south in association with a jet pulse driving south from the Arctic. 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ballamar
24 November 2022 11:34:49


 


Given that the current Op will be superseded on 29th, do you still see much value in an ensemble suite built on the old software?


It’s perhaps worth noting that both the current and new 06z Op runs both end up with a very similar pattern. At risk of being accused of ramping, there are similarities in the evolution to Xmas 1962, with a Scandi high retrogressing to Greenland and a broad northerly being driven south in association with a jet pulse driving south from the Arctic. 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


that’s a bold statement!! You mentioned the unmentionable year

Rob K
24 November 2022 12:01:39
I'd certainly take the GFSP 6Z solution.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
24 November 2022 12:04:23


 


that’s a bold statement!! You mentioned the unmentionable year


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Quite. The Year That Must Not Be Named has been named. I see the similarities though to be fair 😲

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ballamar
24 November 2022 12:36:31


 


Quite. The Year That Must Not Be Named has been named. I see the similarities though to be fair 😲


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


yes there are, just reminded myself using the archive charts

Brian Gaze
24 November 2022 12:43:29

One similarity is in that year I think most months were below CET and in this year all so far are above it.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Tim A
24 November 2022 13:23:26

Does anyone have the verification stats for the new GFS? Has it caught up UKMO or even better ECM?

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
ballamar
24 November 2022 14:15:46
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=avn&var=1&jaar=2021&maand=11&dag=24&uur=0000&h=0&tr=1440&nmaps=24#mapref 

Little look back to last year when many were entering their coldest few days of the colder season. Pressure profile looks completely different
Brian Gaze
24 November 2022 15:16:06


 


Given that the current Op will be superseded on 29th, do you still see much value in an ensemble suite built on the old software?


It’s perhaps worth noting that both the current and new 06z Op runs both end up with a very similar pattern. At risk of being accused of ramping, there are similarities in the evolution to Xmas 1962, with a Scandi high retrogressing to Greenland and a broad northerly being driven south in association with a jet pulse driving south from the Arctic. 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I'll stand corrected on this but I'm not sure there is a new ensemble suite. The one currently offered as the development version by NCEP appears (I think) to be identical to the one which is in production. Have you seen different sets of GEFS ensemble suites on other websites?

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Chunky Pea
24 November 2022 15:22:38


ECM is a bit of a stunner this morning but the GEFS seem to be losing their appetite for anything interesting.  More runs needed as they say.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Normally not a good signal. But the EC suite is also sticking to its cooler, drier them which should not be discounted either. 'All to play for' at this stage. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
ballamar
24 November 2022 16:33:19

Decent looking GFS op run for an easterly influence and better parallel run


in fact I don’t think there could be a better potential for early December for a long time

Saint Snow
24 November 2022 17:09:48


Decent looking GFS op run for an easterly influence and better parallel run


in fact I don’t think there could be a better potential for early December for a long time


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


It's not terrible, but not a patch on both the GFS and GFSP on yesterday's 12z run. The high on today's is too far south and too far east, sitting over the UK or just to the east. Nice and settled, and seasonally chilly, but nothing more.


If we want cold and the chance of snow, we need the centre of the block to take up residence to the NW of the UK and have energy sinking SE'wards to undercut it. 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ballamar
24 November 2022 17:17:47


 


 


It's not terrible, but not a patch on both the GFS and GFSP on yesterday's 12z run. The high on today's is too far south and too far east, sitting over the UK or just to the east. Nice and settled, and seasonally chilly, but nothing more.


If we want cold and the chance of snow, we need the centre of the block to take up residence to the NW of the UK and have energy sinking SE'wards to undercut it. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


op run yes, parallel run it’s not - plus it’s all just potential. Happy to see HP close by with minimal solar activity we could see some great seasonal weather (not just talking snow)

Bertwhistle
24 November 2022 17:18:16


 


 


It's not terrible, but not a patch on both the GFS and GFSP on yesterday's 12z run. The high on today's is too far south and too far east, sitting over the UK or just to the east. Nice and settled, and seasonally chilly, but nothing more.


If we want cold and the chance of snow, we need the centre of the block to take up residence to the NW of the UK and have energy sinking SE'wards to undercut it. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Reckon the land could do with a high like that for a week, to dry it out. Very HP, low RH, a bit of sun and a breeze, won't get us the winter dustbowl of Feb 21 but will prime the ground for snow to settle maybe.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
ballamar
24 November 2022 18:25:21
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=12&charthour=120&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 

Massive Russia Scandi high, low over med, WAA, possibly diving low. Think it’s looking promising at this stage
ballamar
24 November 2022 20:07:05
P30 brings in the most extreme northerly at the end !! 😂
Zubzero
24 November 2022 21:00:51

Such a pity, the easterly will probably come off for once, but early in the season and no deep cold about. Plus Sea surface temperature still not that low will result  in cold and raw felling with drizzle and temperatures about 3-4C day and night. 

Zubzero
24 November 2022 21:04:16

P30 brings in the most extreme northerly at the end !! 😂

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Yeah that's more like it!


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=30&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0


 


Don't remember ever seeing such low 850 temps from a northerly in the South -16 IMBY wow


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=30&ech=384&mode=1&carte=0&ext=0


 

Rob K
24 November 2022 21:35:22

P30 brings in the most extreme northerly at the end !! 😂

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Control run is close but no frozen cigar to a beast from the east too. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
White Meadows
24 November 2022 22:04:06


Such a pity, the easterly will probably come off for once, but early in the season and no deep cold about. Plus Sea surface temperature still not that low will result  in cold and raw felling with drizzle and temperatures about 3-4C day and night. 


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 

I distinctly remember very similar comments in November 2010.


just sayin’ 

nsrobins
24 November 2022 22:43:37


I distinctly remember very similar comments in November 2010.


just sayin’ 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Quite. The glass half empty brigade might get what they want, and experience dictates the mild option is more often than not the right one, but you can’t deny the synoptics being thrown out at the moment shout potential. 

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Zubzero
24 November 2022 22:55:16


I distinctly remember very similar comments in November 2010.


just sayin’ 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


I remember countless comments saying a cold spell is going to happen in X month and nothing come off them, we can all cherry pick 😉


The 18z GFS shows what I'm pointing out easterly temps of 4-5C any deep cold in Russia. Yes it could evolve in to a decent  cold spell but atm the models don't show that. 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=9


 

ballamar
24 November 2022 23:22:03


 


I remember countless comments saying a cold spell is going to happen in X month and nothing come off them, we can all cherry pick 😉


The 18z GFS shows what I'm pointing out easterly temps of 4-5C any deep cold in Russia. Yes it could evolve in to a decent  cold spell but atm the models don't show that. 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=9


 


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


not sure anyone is disputing the charts don’t show very cold, but with this set up it can change very quickly. You would need to start factoring in snow cover and wind strength. The Pattern is more important than the temps/precip type

Zubzero
24 November 2022 23:28:39


 


not sure anyone is disputing the charts don’t show very cold, but with this set up it can change very quickly. You would need to start factoring in snow cover and wind strength. The Pattern is more important than the temps/precip type


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


There is little snow cover in Western Europe 


https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/neige-glace.php?region=nh


As I alluded to in my previous post of course it can change and evolve in to a decent  cold spell but very little model output shows that atm.


ECM shows the lack of cold in Western Europe to as its early  in the season and has been above average temperature wise this Autumn 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?&ech=240&mode=9


 

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