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Darren S
29 November 2022 15:19:26

Puzzled by some South Easterners saying December 2010 was a non event. My memory living in North London at the time was about 2cm on the 30th November lasted a few days. Bit disappointing as further north was getting buried.  Then a dusting on the 16th, about 2cm 17th . Then probably the snow event of my lifetime 10 to 15cm on the 18th. During day light hours just a week before Christmas.  Lasted for about 10 days.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Because the SE is a large place! At the time I was working at a customer in Tunbridge Wells a lot. I got stuck on the M25 in the snow falling near Reigate on my way back from there on 30th November, and arrived home in Arborfield, Berks to just a dusting.

In the first 2.5 weeks of December 2010, the main snow was IIRC east of London, possibly north as well. Then on 18th December, a band of 100% snow came up from the SW (how often can you say that? It was the polar vortex I think), but despite optimistic predictions, passed through Berkshire in about 90 minutes, and then stalled over the south Midlands. The result was 5cm at home, but the M40/A40 corridor got 30cm or so in many places. I spent Christmas Day in Cirencester where there was 8" of powder whilst there was just a bit of slush at home.

Consequently, those of us SW of London didn't get that much snow. 5cm was the max that month, compared to 22cm in Jan 2010.
Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
westv
29 November 2022 16:08:33

We are at the reminiscing stage of a potential cold spell I see. Always good sign (better than any model) that soemthing is a afoot. I love it 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


The wailing and knashing of the disappointed masses comes later. 🤣
At least it will be mild!
dagspot
29 November 2022 16:38:02
...anyway, back to the future model output...
Neilston 600ft ASL
Russwirral
29 November 2022 16:39:56
Starting to get the impression really really cold weather just isnt heading to the UK.  Dare I say it - Marginal cold weather?

Should that be the slogan for moden UK winter

"Marginal"
Brian Gaze
29 November 2022 16:49:46
GFS and GFSP both showing less cold air getting into the mix next week.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Russwirral
29 November 2022 17:06:51
I think given the synoptics theres a fair chance they will flip back to colder again
Heavy Weather 2013
29 November 2022 17:21:20

GFS and GFSP both showing less cold air getting into the mix next week.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



The blocking just feels too west based. I worry.
 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
ballamar
29 November 2022 17:21:44
Remembering past years when blocking is about the saying was anything past T96 is FI. No consistency past this time so whilst it's good to watch what might happen, I still think we could be surprised what's in store in a week
Rob K
29 November 2022 17:22:31
12Z GFS output shows how small margins can lead to everything rapidly falling apart from a cold setup POV.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
fairweather
29 November 2022 17:27:08

IMO, few, and relevant to the currently ongoing discussion

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Much of East Anglia and the more S.E like Essex and Kent didn't get much lasting snow, although far more than any other this century (other than the Beast which was good in those regions). It's also an age thing. People who lived through the sixties to eighties in the S.E had many falls of over 20cm and drifts of over a metre so no big deal for them.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
29 November 2022 17:32:45

12Z GFS output shows how small margins can lead to everything rapidly falling apart from a cold setup POV.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



And GEM is a disaster. the models always tease and then cruelly take away😢
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0 


 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
fairweather
29 November 2022 17:35:09

Starting to get the impression really really cold weather just isnt heading to the UK.  Dare I say it - Marginal cold weather?

Should that be the slogan for moden UK winter

"Marginal"

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Same every winter. People see the charts a couple of weeks ahead and 2010 is back on the agenda. Then there a couple of milder charts and the other extreme start it's all gone wrong stuff. The same pattern every year - sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't, but experience tells us the real extreme charts rarely materialise. But I guess people enjoy the speculation although I tend to wait close to the time these days.🙂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
29 November 2022 17:35:53
GFS control always backing the block west. A very bad trend and we may up with mild south westerlies. Reminds me of Late dec 2010. The cold spell looked like it would be extended another month, but then we got west based -NAO
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
warrenb
29 November 2022 17:36:18
It will wobble this and that way. Suspect it will be a snowfest for midlands northwards and wet in the south as an eventual outcome.
scarborough whiteout
29 November 2022 17:37:57
Yeah looking like the real cold never gets going. Probably a new signal picked up.
Gooner
29 November 2022 17:46:14

 https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2022112912/gensnh-0-0-276.png 

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2022112912/gensnh-0-1-276.png 

Control still gives many some winter cheer 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
29 November 2022 17:58:34

 https://content-eu.invisioncic.com/d321955/monthly_2022_11/6EE1FF32-A77E-4D16-B9DE-5829A5374B54.png.4dc5e4839e505f3e0616e16f2ad913ac.png 

 Doesn't look too bad 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


warrenb
29 November 2022 18:03:04

You are clearly not seeing the new pattern 🤣
Brian Gaze
29 November 2022 18:19:11
GEFS 10 day mean looks less supportive of cold conditions in the southern half of the UK. I'll need to go through the archives but I wonder if we could be seeing something like last Christmas shaping up. Comparisions with 2010 are misplaced.
 

UserPostedImage
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
29 November 2022 18:33:14
UK Met 12z looks more encouraging for cold weather fans.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
scarborough whiteout
29 November 2022 18:39:03
ECM looking good and sticking to its pattern.
Rob K
29 November 2022 18:47:50
Yes ECM steadies the ship a bit but generally once the models start wobbling from a consensus it is one way traffic...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Karl Guille
29 November 2022 18:47:58
Not too shabby on the ECM at 192. 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022112912/ECM0-192.GIF?29-0 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
ballamar
29 November 2022 18:48:47
Stonking ECM up to 192
scarborough whiteout
29 November 2022 18:51:00
ECM is stunning

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