theweatheroutlook

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Gooner
29 November 2022 18:55:00

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022112912/ECH1-216.GIF?29-0 

 Ecm looking good 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
29 November 2022 18:55:08

ECM is stunning

Originally Posted by: scarborough whiteout 


Yes, it really is quite impressive!
 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
29 November 2022 19:05:17
Not often you see a chart like this.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
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marco 79
29 November 2022 19:33:27
Gfs Op sneaks out the tell tale signs of the wild west Atlantic 2nd week of Dec..CFS was much this way yesterday ...
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Taylor1740
29 November 2022 19:40:00
Sounds like the models are wobbling on the cold spell (surprise surprise). Give it another day or two and we will be back to looking at mild South Westerlies for December.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Saint Snow
29 November 2022 19:49:25
[quote=Brian  I'll need to go through the archives but I wonder if we could be seeing something like last Christmas shaping up. Comparisions with 2010 are misplaced.

 



Small note: we're still in November 

😉

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
doctormog
29 November 2022 19:50:30

Sounds like the models are wobbling on the cold spell (surprise surprise). Give it another day or two and we will be back to looking at mild South Westerlies for December.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



What are your thoughts on the UKMO and ECM 12z output? 

On the subject of SWlies, the GEFS ensemble wind "roses" look some of the least SWly I have seen:
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25&runpara=0&type=5&ext=1  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
29 November 2022 19:52:04

Sounds like the models are wobbling on the cold spell (surprise surprise). Give it another day or two and we will be back to looking at mild South Westerlies for December.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


I very much doubt that, it would be quite tough to get mild south westerlies any time soon from the current setup. But I suspect you know that. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
29 November 2022 19:53:22

What are your thoughts on the UKMO and ECM 12z output? 

On the subject of SWlies, the GEFS ensemble wind "roses" look some of the least SWly I have seen:
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25&runpara=0&type=5&ext=1  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Dont talk sense he will ignore this and spout the same nonsense tomorrow, think the models are struggling with the mass of blocking currently. 
Taylor1740
29 November 2022 20:07:15
Yes but I remember last Christmas we went from looking at a significant cold spell to extremely mild South Westerlies so it could still happen, especially if the blocking ends up weaker and further northwards than the models are predicting.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
doctormog
29 November 2022 20:15:09

Yes but I remember last Christmas we went from looking at a significant cold spell to extremely mild South Westerlies so it could still happen, especially if the blocking ends up weaker and further northwards than the models are predicting.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


Anything could still happen given the timescale but considering that the ECM 10 day mean looks like this ,  SWlies would surely have to be one of the less likely options? 

UserPostedImage
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
29 November 2022 20:19:58
I'm not one to discount GFS which can sniff out a pattern change, but the suite is holding and ECM is impressive.
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
29 November 2022 20:24:48

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022112912/EDH1-216.GIF?29-0 

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022112912/EDH1-240.GIF?29-0 

 Trying desperately to see a SWly but can't quite see it 😏
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Chunky Pea
29 November 2022 20:36:31

Sounds like the models are wobbling on the cold spell (surprise surprise). Give it another day or two and we will be back to looking at mild South Westerlies for December.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


I'm not sure they are. Colder condtitions almost a certainty now but how cold is the question. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Saint Snow
29 November 2022 20:44:05
I know it's pointless looking at detail at such a range, but I love the formation of a shortwave low at the end of the ECM  - not least because it deveops in frigid air and is in the right position for once!


UserPostedImage

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Hippydave
29 November 2022 21:20:14
Not had a chance to look at the models until this evening and all looks broadly as it did yesterday to me. A chilly outlook, with a decent chance of colder air in the mid to long term but by no means universal agreement, suggesting milder options remain very much on the table but less likely than colder ones for a change (IMO). 

The GFS op (and control I assume although not looked at the charts for that) are just playing with the LP being more influential (for the South in particular) than the HP before the Atlantic winds back up, an option that's been in the ens all along. I assume the monster LPs deeper in to FI reflect all the cold air over a relatively mild sea along with the contrast with the much warmer air coming up from the South pepping things up.



 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
White Meadows
29 November 2022 21:47:53
For once, the MJO looking to steer us into a possible 'monster' Greenland HP scenario by mid December with decent chances for widespread snowfall even to low levels. 
Expcect reasonable to good consistency of blocked set ups in the models over the coming days & weeks. 

 
David M Porter
29 November 2022 21:52:28

Yes but I remember last Christmas we went from looking at a significant cold spell to extremely mild South Westerlies so it could still happen, especially if the blocking ends up weaker and further northwards than the models are predicting.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



I don't think there was ever the same consistency or cross-model agreement in early-mid December last year, though.

From what I recall, the models played around with a potential cold spell from the east for a while and at one point, it looked as though it was a genuine possibility. I think it was always a more touch-and-go affair though than what seems to be the case this time, going by the present output.

 
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
ballamar
29 November 2022 22:00:40
Is this the last GFS op run tonight before the parallel takes over?
ballamar
29 November 2022 22:01:42

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022112912/EDH1-216.GIF?29-0 

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022112912/EDH1-240.GIF?29-0 

 Trying desperately to see a SWly but can't quite see it 😏

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



hold your phone upside down
+2
Brian Gaze
29 November 2022 22:33:46
GFS and GFSP 18z runs are very consistent with the earlier updates and both show a less cold outcome next week than some of the other models.  Kudos to the GFS if it's got this right.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx?run=18&charthour=207&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=18&charthour=207&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 


 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
29 November 2022 22:45:52

Is this the last GFS op run tonight before the parallel takes over?

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


No I believe the switchover has been put back 24 hours. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
29 November 2022 22:46:42

Is this the last GFS op run tonight before the parallel takes over?

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



As it's a US system I'm assuming it won't go live until the working day tomorrow, but that's just my interpretation.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
29 November 2022 22:49:35
GFS making much more of the low pressure and pushing it northwards keeping most of Europe in milder air apart from Scandinavia. 

With GEM also poor this evening the ECM is looking like the odd man out. Still no sign of any southwesterlies though 😉
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
29 November 2022 22:50:45
The GFS update is scheduled for tomorrow

Effective November 30, 2022, "beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the Global Forecast System (GFS) from version 16.2.2 to 16.3.0"
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
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