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moomin75
30 November 2022 08:57:15

The model runs at the moment remind me a lot of what we saw on a number of occasions in the period from early 2009 to early 2013, certainly in respect of vast northern blocking. Other than early 2018, it is quite a while since we were seeing runs like the present ones on a daily basis.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Some interesting charts around for sure. However, until we get a bit more cross model support, it's worth keeping feet firmly on terra firma, but I would not be surprised to see, at the very least, a much colder first half to December than we have seen for a good few years.   
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+1
Zubzero
30 November 2022 09:17:13
Any "eye candy" charts are still over a week away. That's an age away especially in a blocked pattern. 
I'd give it a 25% chance that it will evolve into a decent cold spell with snow ect atm. 
ballamar
30 November 2022 09:23:28
Great chart watching at the moment - as it's this time of year will look for the best charts and not worry if they don't come off. ECM looks good but always a danger too far west. Looks like some colder weather on the cards though
Ally Pally Snowman
30 November 2022 09:33:45
Solidly cold ECM ensembles.  

UserPostedImage
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
30 November 2022 09:42:21

Solidly cold ECM ensembles.  

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



As Brian mentioned, GFS consistant with the less cold period next week as the low drags up warmer air from southern europe. What happens after is up in the air. Could easily end up sitting under a trough . UKMO 144 also not very encouraging though we cant see what happens later
 
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nsrobins
30 November 2022 10:09:20
I'm not one to pre-guess a run, but on the 06Z GFS you can already see the similarities to the 00Z EC at 120hrs and already quite different to the GFS 00Z run, with respect the start of the draw down of frigid arctic air as the trough tries to drop into Sandinavia.
I might be wrong but this could be one of 'those' mornings.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
30 November 2022 10:13:23
Last ever run of the existing GFS looks more promising for cold weather fans.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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+1
Russwirral
30 November 2022 10:14:50
agreed... much better run this for early next week.

Tapping straight into the cold, rather than tickling it

 

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Russwirral
30 November 2022 10:19:45
nsrobins
30 November 2022 10:21:22
Double, double, toil and trouble . .  (you know the rest).
If (and it's a decent if) these charts verify, in a week we could be staring down the barrel of a significant wintery spell and with energy issues as they are it's going to be a problem.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ballamar
30 November 2022 10:23:31
What is the record HP over Greenland? GFS certainly ramping it up
Gooner
30 November 2022 10:28:37

  https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022113006/gfsnh-0-156.png?6 
  GFS coming round to the idea 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Jeff
  • Jeff
  • Advanced Member
30 November 2022 10:36:33
Picking up on previous comments about comparisons with December 2010 being misplaced, the way this December is now forecasted to evolve looks to me to resemble December 1981. I havent looked at the archive but I recall it was one of those months where a huge and persistent Greenland high ruled the roost for most of the month - and it was far from dry too 😉

Janaury 1982 had a few interesting weather events too.
On the East/West Sussex Border
70m ASL
+1
ballamar
30 November 2022 10:39:56
Low refuses to sink the the GFSP but the last Op run going out with a bang.
nsrobins
30 November 2022 11:02:34

Low refuses to sink the the GFSP but the last Op run going out with a bang.

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Indeed - an we keep the old GFS (at least for another 6hrs lol)
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
moomin75
30 November 2022 11:07:06
The 6z parallel goes all "long fetch south westerly/southerly" at the end and potentially becomes extremely mild.
I hope that this new GFS isn't as erratic as previous incarnation, but I bet you it is.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
30 November 2022 11:22:58

Picking up on previous comments about comparisons with December 2010 being misplaced, the way this December is now forecasted to evolve looks to me to resemble December 1981. I havent looked at the archive but I recall it was one of those months where a huge and persistent Greenland high ruled the roost for most of the month - and it was far from dry too 😉

Janaury 1982 had a few interesting weather events too.

Originally Posted by: Jeff 



My recollection could be a little inaccurate here given the passage of time. That said, going by my memories of following the models in both December 2009 and December 2010, there was a pretty strong build of pressure over the Greenland/Iceland area in both of those months. I don't recall there being much of a rise in pressure over Scandinavia in either month, although I stand corrected if I am wrong about that.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
30 November 2022 11:29:44
Obviously we want the ECM to verify but it often over does Greenland blocking especially in the 192h - 240h range. So I doubt it will countdown smoothly. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
30 November 2022 11:43:10

Obviously we want the ECM to verify but it often over does Greenland blocking especially in the 192h - 240h range. So I doubt it will countdown smoothly.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

We all know for a fact it won't run smoothly.I advise caution and consideration in posting and reacting to every run either excitedly or doom and gloom.I know I used to be guilty of that, so I am very much in the calm and collected analysis nowadays. 😀  
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
nsrobins
30 November 2022 12:06:02

We all know for a fact it won't run smoothly.I advise caution and consideration in posting and reacting to every run either excitedly or doom and gloom.I know I used to be guilty of that, so I am very much in the calm and collected analysis nowadays. 😀  

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Talking about reacting to every run, I hereby offer you the most outrageous GEFS member of the year - pert 22 on this morning's 06Z GEFS:
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=22&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 
From 276 to 324 - quite possibly the best example of an old school S UK channel low blizzard you're likely to see (JFF).
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 November 2022 12:10:24

Talking about reacting to every run, I hereby offer you the most outrageous GEFS member of the year - pert 22 on this morning's 06Z GEFS:
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=22&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 
From 276 to 324 - quite possibly the best example of an old school S UK channel low blizzard you're likely to see (JFF).

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Those were the days!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Heavy Weather 2013
30 November 2022 12:11:16
Slightly off topic, but Sunday looks pretty cold and wintry almost nation wide and with England playing in the evening, I suspect the energy grid will be tested to the limit. 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Rob K
30 November 2022 13:05:08

The 6z parallel goes all "long fetch south westerly/southerly" at the end and potentially becomes extremely mild.
I hope that this new GFS isn't as erratic as previous incarnation, but I bet you it is.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes it gets into double figure 850s by the end. More runs/model upgrades needed!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
picturesareme
30 November 2022 13:25:10
Chilly for the south coast Sunday but go a few miles inland onto the Hampshire downs and it will be very cold.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcp618npj#?date=2022-12-05 

 
Brian Gaze
30 November 2022 13:26:36
More less cold or mild runs in the mix than 24 hours ago.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London 
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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