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Gooner
30 November 2022 18:42:37

  https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022113012/ECH1-192.GIF?30-0 

  Long time since we have seen something a kin to this 

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022113012/ECH0-192.GIF?30-0 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
30 November 2022 18:51:13

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022113012/ECH1-216.GIF?30-0 

 Brilliant - look at the disturbances in the flow 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
30 November 2022 18:53:08

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022113012/ECH1-192.GIF?30-0 

  Long time since we have seen something a kin to this 

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022113012/ECH0-192.GIF?30-0 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



The UK view of that chart shows a small LP system in the southern North Sea, between the Thames Estuary and the Netherlands.  Obviously it won't be exactly like that, but disturbances in that flow should produce something wintry.





 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
30 November 2022 18:54:47
Wonderful ECM.  Right on the margins for snow though -6/-7c 850s for most.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
30 November 2022 18:59:31

  Some good 12z's this evening - can't really grumble 
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
30 November 2022 19:05:59

Wonderful ECM.  Right on the margins for snow though -6/-7c 850s for most.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



The 500-1,000hPa thickness values for days 8-10 for London are in the low 520s, which is fine. 

For my location I estimate the figures are 522, 522 and 524dam, and you're not very far south of me.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
30 November 2022 19:07:29
GEFS looks very wobbly this evening. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Justin W
30 November 2022 19:15:16

GEFS looks very wobbly this evening. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yep - t1ts up written all over it!
Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Ally Pally Snowman
30 November 2022 19:15:45

The 500-1,000hPa thickness values for days 8-10 for London are in the low 520s, which is fine. 

For my location I estimate the figures are 522, 522 and 524dam, and you're not very far south of me.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Yes that should be enough. 👍
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
marco 79
30 November 2022 19:19:29
Control looks good bit mean creeping up to average values 2nd week...face value not good for anything sustainable on this run...long way out but trends an all that..
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Heavy Weather 2013
30 November 2022 19:31:10

GEFS looks very wobbly this evening. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Ill reserve judgement until the 0z. But I actually think the GFS has been a complete mess for days and doesn't seem to know what it wants to do. ECM and METO have been rock solid IMHO. 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
ballamar
30 November 2022 19:35:15

GEFS looks very wobbly this evening. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


the spread says it all, great fun as it could go from cold to mild very quickly or vice versa. Winter starts tomorrow better than people saying hopefully we can get a reset in a couple of weeks!
+1
Brian Gaze
30 November 2022 19:36:53

Ill reserve judgement until the 0z. But I actually think the GFS has been a complete mess for days and doesn't seem to know what it wants to do. ECM and METO have been rock solid IMHO. 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



I expect the ECM ENS 12z to be similar. I've been comparing them through the course of the year and more often tha not there is very little difference. Far too much analysis by some people arguing that model X is better than model Y. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
fairweather
30 November 2022 19:44:05
Pretty good really considering it is still November. Certainly prospects of a much colder and snow covered NW Europe than we've had for a few years. I always think this helps further down the line with SST's generally so much warmer these days. Gives some cold air to tap into.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gooner
30 November 2022 19:55:09

GEFS looks very wobbly this evening. 

You keep backing GFS Brian lol - you doubted ECM yesterday - you will be right soon , but when lol ?

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
30 November 2022 19:57:14
Rob K
30 November 2022 19:57:59

GEFS looks very wobbly this evening. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yep. GFS seems to have lost all enthusiasm for any cold spell. 
I don't really buy the ECM output, it all just looks too "clean" and we know it never works out that way in reality, low pressure will always spin up and derail the cold air.
 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gusty
30 November 2022 20:02:55
Need to be careful not to get too invested in this set up.

We've seen a few times  in the past where the Iberian low pushes too far north cutting off the very cold easterly feed before it gets a chance to establish. The Greeny High retrogresses too far west and before you know it a sneaky little low pops up over the North Sea and a lobe of high pressure forms over France.

A pattern worth watching with interest but with a huge amount of caution.
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



+2
doctormog
30 November 2022 20:03:28
Generally I think it is interesting to see any form of prolonged below average temperatures, especially in the context of recent weeks and months. 

UserPostedImage
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
nsrobins
30 November 2022 21:05:17

Need to be careful not to get too invested in this set up.

We've seen a few times  in the past where the Iberian low pushes too far north cutting off the very cold easterly feed before it gets a chance to establish. The Greeny High retrogresses too far west and before you know it a sneaky little low pops up over the North Sea and a lobe of high pressure forms over France.

A pattern worth watching with interest but with a huge amount of caution.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



I concur Steve, but the background and macro signals are pretty robust on this particular round of model shenanigans so I put more confidence in the suite solutions than I'd normally do. 
I think this could be the real deal.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
fairweather
30 November 2022 21:25:27
"It's good, but it's not right" as the man said. Probably a bit early in the winter or needs to be a bit more severe. Hopefully we will see more of the same as the wwinter progresses.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
30 November 2022 22:00:46
12z  ECM ENS  for London.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
David M Porter
30 November 2022 22:06:21

I concur Steve, but the background and macro signals are pretty robust on this particular round of model shenanigans so I put more confidence in the suite solutions than I'd normally do. 
I think this could be the real deal.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Let's hope so, Neil. 🙂
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
tallyho_83
30 November 2022 22:20:59
Interesting CFS monthly update for December - last week when I checked the anomalies for N and NW Europe was for it to be 0.5 and 1.0c above avarage now it's average.

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Arbroath 1320
30 November 2022 22:52:32

Generally I think it is interesting to see any form of prolonged below average temperatures, especially in the context of recent weeks and months. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Was just about to post the same for Edinburgh doc.

GFS London ENS are just reflecting the uncertainty about the push of milder air from Biscay. Presently this uncertainty is less pronounced for Nothern English/Scottish cities, so the ENS are still solidly cold.

Quite a remarkable set up for early Winter really regardless of how it all pans out.

If the 12z GFS & ECM verify though, and that's a big if, we could be in for a prologed cold period.
 
GGTTH

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