Re- CFS, I noticed this also. 
and a nice big plus anomaly over Greenland can only reaffirm the set up for prolonged cold. Probably nothing extreme like the golden years of 2009 or 2010, but encouraging none the less. 

P.s Pub run is another corker tonight. 

GFS tonight is a rare thing and would cause many headaches. Potential for some decent wintry weather

The GFS ensemble mean SLP chart for T+240 is almost identical to the ECM ensemble mean T+240 one (six hours different)

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Some very mild outliers/trendsetters(!) towards the end there.

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This is a very rare (these days at least) and interesting setup whatever happens. BBC forecast getting more bullish about snow on hills by the 10th as far south as Buxton: GFS shows snow fall as far south as North Cambridgeshire.  In 2003, we saw a prolonged easterly. That did eventually drag truly cold air to our shores by the 7th or 8th day, and we got snow, but sea temps were cooler, and 18 years is a long time in galloping climate change (even if a gnats pee in normal climatic change terms). This high is later and the northerly component drags true arctic air down from the Arctic circle, but only delivers snow at 1000 ft above sea level. We will have to wait and see. Different days indeed to the 1970 Christmas snow - deep and crisp in lowland Sussex - hard packed snow on the roads. Those were the days my friend, we thought they'd never end...but they did. 
However, seeing the pulse of warm air reach Svalbard, and the high building, the easterly develop and then see a migration to a massive Greenland high, fills my heart with joy, whatever it delivers. Not seen an east wind traverse the whole Atlantic right to the east coast of the USA since 1995. This is something special, just for that. 

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Some interesting ensembles on the GFS 18z even this far south.  Certainly more interesting than this time last year and finally saw daytime temps in single digits today.
 https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2022113018/graphe3_10000_219_249___.gif 

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The ensembles at the end going N in terms of 850s could well be perturbations that show WAA back up through the UK. Some of the big hitters are suggesting that towards the middle of December the MJO may re-emerge into favourable blocking phases. The upshot being that if the initial block can survive until this time, we could be in for a very prolonged spell of winter weather, taking us beyond Christmas and into the first few days of January.

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Tiny bit of excitement I reckon this morning after an incredible GFS for early Dec. Embrace the excitement as it's unlikely to happen exactly this way!

GFS really is pretty good today. But we still need to get through this bump after the 5th December. But there is much uncertainty atm. There is a massive +10 to + 12 difference in 850s as early as the fourth. It's clear that there are difficulties with thag low moving up from the south. I bet it never makes it this far north.

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Very snowy GEM this morning. Love it!
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=25&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
 

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ECM had to spoil it!!

Yep ECMs time to wobble as it was bound to at some stage. Although its probably still quite a snowy run for the North.
 

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Good old model uncertainty🤣

Looked at the ECM op, bit of a downgrade with LP developing over the North Sea and cutting off the cold air albeit I suspect it'd be quite snowy for some in the North, biased towards higher ground. Assumed GFS would be similar and it shows a much cleaner evolution and a noticeably better one than many of the ops lately.

Will be interesting to see the ECM ens when they come out to see where the Op sits - similar to GFS there's been a fair bit of scatter albeit a decent cold grouping.

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For what it's worth this is the day 10 ECM 00z run snow depth figures but I think it often overestimates these: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20221211-0000z.html  

On a more positive note, if it is wintry potential you're after, the ECM mean data are again supportive of that scenario. By day 10 this is the mean but the rest of the run is consistent with it: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png  

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Decent output again this morning. The 00Z EC det. in its latter stages has on this run fallen in the group that's been showing in its suite for the last few days - a trough forming in the N Sea.
One solution of many and the pattern still looks solid for increasingly colder and wintry into next week.

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super frustrating for some of us, we would have to be spoilt with pictures!

Off again, on again. WX temps in week 1 showing a concentration in eastern Europe asyesterday, but unlike yesterday in week 2 the cold air floods west with the 0C isotherm covering most of France, and some of Spain & Britain. There is the new feature of extreme cold (< -16) in N Scandinavia. Rain (or snow) in week 1 on the Atlantic dribbling down through W Britain linking to an area in the Med. In week 2, the northern area shifts to the N Sea and Norway, and the southern area extends out to Ukraine.

GFS Op - currently there's a ridge from Scandinavia to Britain; this declines as LP moves up from France but unlike yesterday  moves NW into the Atlantic Wed 7th allowing  E-lies to establish for Britain. At the same time the Scandi HP moves W to Iceland and LP from N Russia follows it into Scandi. By Tue 13th the LP is centred 995mb N Norway with trough extending to a second centre which has revived 985mb Gibraltar, and Britain in NE-lies on the fringe of this. The arrival of any really cold air to Britain is disrupted as a ridge of HP extends N from continental Europe Sat 17th, with Lps on either side1005mb Sweden and 985 mb Sw of Ireland.

ECM accelerates this development with trough and NE-lies in place by Wed 7th. Then the Scandi LP moves to Scotland 995 mb Fri 9th with a rather cold pool over Britain, which persists to Sun 11th even though LP moves up to France 990mb to link with that over Scotland.

GEFS temps persistently 2-5C below norm for the next fortnight, and although op and control for England are milder for a few days around Wed 7th, the majority of ens members are close to the mean. The chance of (generally small) amounts of pptn increase from Tue 6th. By the nd of the fortnight snow row figures are 5-10 in the S & W, 10-15 in the E, 15-20 in N Scotland.

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These Greenland blocks can be a fickle beast and often need to maintain strength to keep the jet south of us.  The reality can often end up that the strength is over ramped and in the near term milder lows push up from the SW. 

They're good for establishing cold pools to our north and east, but I'd probably want to see signs of progression to the GIN/Scandi to allow us to tap into it and keep the Atlantic out.

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another new evolving take on pressure outcomes this morning, with the cold air giving UK a decent left hook before being shunted instead into Europe.  Not a terrible thing if we can put up with delaying a severe cold spell.  European temps go firmly into the chiller as a result.  With Pressure remaining high, this gives the UK a very close reserve of cold bounty 😃  This has been a rare thing in recent winters.  Get the cold in, then let it block the warm.

Xmas markets will have a seasonal feel to them for the next week or so, sales of Gluhwein likely to be strong ❄

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Just one observation about the GEM which I rate quite highly - the det. this morning quite quickly erodes the heights over Greenland allowing a push from the NW later on. It's got a little suport from its suite so something to watch in the next few days. This is all longer term though - the medium term still looks full of north-eastern promise.

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Ignoring the synoptics for a moment it seems that most cold spells this last decade have followed similar outcomes. Despite different initial set ups, some very favourable for here, the most snow seems to have been in the mid SW and West Midlands. This is opposed to perhaps previous decades where areas further East and dare I say North have faired better. This is a fairly subjective assessment which I am happy to have contradicted and the only certainty is there has been little and only short lived snow lying in this region in the last ten years with the majority having none. I have no reason yet to assume this winter will be different

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Absolutely. I think all the indicators so far point to this being another localised affair for a few favoured spots with 80%+ of the UK population unaffected. Few people care much if it's snowing on the Beacons or in Aberdeen, one might as well report on the weather in the French Alps.

I hope to be wrong, of course. 

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An arguably better run by the GFS with a stonking GH

 

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decent snowstorm in the SE in 10/11 days. Nice to see 

The GEFS mean to +180 is an improvement on the 00Z run, with a cleaner NE flow by then and uppers a few deg lower generally.
I supsect there are better solutions on offer in the suite than the OP.
The vagries of the various offerings post 144 are just variations on the theme. Get the polar airmass in and the detail can wait for short term.

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