Re the usual 'it looks dry other than favoured spots comments, as is usually pointed out each time a colder spell is looming it's essentially pointless looking at any chart showing snow (or precip generally) at more than 48-72 hours - no model will get troughs, shower development etc. right at range or even remotely right a lot of the time. The GFS op show cold (ish) air for a prolonged period with LP not too far away along with cold air moving over comparatively warm seas. That will all enhance shower activity and increase the chances of more organised precip. Whether the air is cold enough for snow if that happens is a touch debateable imo although it looks 'okay' for a fair chunk of the time.
Overall it's looking encouraging for cold air to make it over pretty much the whole of the UK but LP being more influential and cutting off the cold flow remains a real possibility, as is LP to the South making it further North and introducing milder air for some. Currently though cold air UK wide (after the initial chilly push from the east) is IMO favoured although for IMBY at least I'd probably put it at 40% cold, 30% chilly and 30% mild/average. Further North the odds would change more heavily in favour of cold as the pattern is one where that's more likely.
When you look back at November's relentless mild south westerlies and the run of week after week of above average temps this year (usually significantly above average too), the fact we have a definite chilly start to Winter is surprising and having a decent possibility of a cold spell with some snow around is even more surprising. Hopefully the second part of the pattern verifies!
Originally Posted by: Hippydave