theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2022 10:39:33
Spectacular GFS 6z.  Snow events for the SW and SE.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
squish
02 December 2022 10:43:22
06z an even better run?
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Snow Hoper
02 December 2022 10:46:53
I've got one eye open, most certainly interested in the evolving pattern. However, not entirely convinced by the depth of cold on offer. Need more from that lobe dropping down from north/northeast. Thankfully the ECM was an outlier after about 180hrs. Atm I'm seeing lots of sleety or wet snow and hail showers at lower levels, need a bit more contrast in depth of cold vs sea temps. I'm certainly interested just not overly hyped like some of comments seen.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Saint Snow
02 December 2022 10:51:15

The law of Sod!  Cold and dry is OK but for once I don't want snow in a week's time as we've got contractors booked in to tile the roof of our new build next weekend.

Originally Posted by: Caz 




We're flying to Paris on the 10th and returning on the 12th, so I could do with any snow holding off until my return!

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Russwirral
02 December 2022 10:51:59
Once the cold arrives, theres a Consistent signal big features running into the Alps.

We just need one of those to swing north and bingo - snowstorm time.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2022 10:53:44
Significant easterly on the latter stages of the GFS 6z.  One for the Kentish crew. It really is a stunning run. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
fairweather
02 December 2022 10:57:48

Is it still on a knife edge and all to play for? More runs needed? 

Originally Posted by: westv 


😁
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
02 December 2022 11:35:23

😁

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Marginal.
https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
Russwirral
02 December 2022 11:49:17
to my earlier post...

theres plenty of quite potent systems rail roading into central europe... if we can tap a little into that - there will be fireworks

UserPostedImage

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
White Meadows
02 December 2022 11:53:52
Cracking 06z run. 
And what better time of year to have prospects for snow. 
Downpour
02 December 2022 12:05:13

What a load of tedious IMBY nonsense.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



It is you who is tedious.

You often say this but of course all weather is local. IMBY is a trite cliche. 

One might as well analyse the weather on the top of Cairngorm/Everest. Who cares if it's snowing in the favoured spots and 80-90% of the UK population are unaffected?

We arte looking for widespread snowfall in the populous areas of the UK – that is the truth.

It might yet happen of course. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
UncleAlbert
02 December 2022 12:12:54

Marginal.

Originally Posted by: idot 



Dewpoints consistently zero or subzero going through the weekend after this one and through the following week according to 0600 GFS.... so we shall see.
​​​​​​
doctormog
02 December 2022 12:16:05

It is you who is tedious.

You often say this but of course all weather is local. IMBY is a trite cliche. 

One might as well analyse the weather on the top of Cairngorm/Everest. Who cares if it's snowing in the favoured spots and 80-90% of the UK population are unaffected?

We arte looking for widespread snowfall in the populous areas of the UK – that is the truth.

It might yet happen of course. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



More tedious nonsense. Perhaps try to contribute something beyond self-centered parochial nonsense? Everyone else manages to do so.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
doctormog
02 December 2022 12:30:45
Anyway back to the models and the day 6 GEFS mean is very impressive once again. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_144_1.png 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Tim A
02 December 2022 12:38:25

It is you who is tedious.

You often say this but of course all weather is local. IMBY is a trite cliche. 

One might as well analyse the weather on the top of Cairngorm/Everest. Who cares if it's snowing in the favoured spots and 80-90% of the UK population are unaffected?

We arte looking for widespread snowfall in the populous areas of the UK – that is the truth.

It might yet happen of course. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



You cannot say 'Who cares if it snows in Aberdeen" ( a significant city that like many places hasn't had any snow this season,  where there are several TWO members) and think this is reasonable. 

The thread is to discuss the weather across the Uk, I think it's actually more exciting if we hear stories of weather events affecting members , rather than measuring excitement on the % UK population affected. Why should I be more excited for snow in London rather than say any other town or city. I wouldn't be. 

 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
+2
White Meadows
02 December 2022 12:39:21

Anyway back to the models and the day 6 GEFS mean is very impressive once again. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_144_1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Sure does Doc. 

The NAO not to mention AO is signalled to stay quite strongly negative for the foreseeable. Could aid longevity into the Christmas period:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.sprd2.png 
 
ballamar
02 December 2022 12:42:25

Anyway back to the models and the day 6 GEFS mean is very impressive once again. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_144_1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



I remember when the forum would go into meltdown if this was shown at T384. Feel like we have a good chance of decent wintry weather in the next couple weeks
+1
Rob K
02 December 2022 13:21:15
GFS 6Z has a run of ice days (or very close to, with maxima below 1C) for parts of the south starting as early as next Thursday. Will be interesting to see if these get pushed back or if we see the model consistently reel them in.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
02 December 2022 13:23:22

Anyway back to the models and the day 6 GEFS mean is very impressive once again. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_144_1.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Here's the snow risk chart for T+150, midday Thursday: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=150&mode=26&carte=3&proba=1&ext=0 

A large part of Scotland north of the Central Belt, away from the west coast, sits under 100% snow risk, along with all higher ground of northern England and Wales.  Quite a bit of the rest, north of the M4, has a risk between 25-50%
 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Downpour
02 December 2022 13:26:40

More tedious nonsense. Perhaps try to contribute something beyond self-centered parochial nonsense? Everyone else manages to do so.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



What a silly response. 

Examining how weather trends affect people is key (hence the phrase 'disruptive snowfall'). 

It is perfectly valuable to explore the weather models through this prism and I shall continue to do so – assessing the impact of the weather on the population is not 'IMBY' (a trite cliche that you trot out frequently).

 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
02 December 2022 13:28:57

Here's the snow risk chart for T+150, midday Thursday: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=150&mode=26&carte=3&proba=1&ext=0 

A large part of Scotland north of the Central Belt, away from the west coast, sits under 100% snow risk, along with all higher ground of northern England and Wales.  Quite a bit of the rest, north of the M4, has a risk between 25-50%
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Yes it's not quite getting there yet for the bulk of the UK population.

But, there is genuine potential and the outlook looks cold. 

We shall see how it develops. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
tierradelfuego
02 December 2022 13:29:25

Here's the snow risk chart for T+150, midday Thursday: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=150&mode=26&carte=3&proba=1&ext=0 

A large part of Scotland north of the Central Belt, away from the west coast, sits under 100% snow risk, along with all higher ground of northern England and Wales.  Quite a bit of the rest, north of the M4, has a risk between 25-50%
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



I've not used that particular chart before GTW - what is the risk based on... temperature, precipitation or both sides of the equation?

Thanks.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
Saint Snow
02 December 2022 14:02:40

What a silly response. 

Examining how weather trends affect people is key (hence the phrase 'disruptive snowfall'). 

It is perfectly valuable to explore the weather models through this prism and I shall continue to do so – assessing the impact of the weather on the population is not 'IMBY' (a trite cliche that you trot out frequently).

 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 




What does this even mean?

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Gandalf The White
02 December 2022 14:11:09

I've not used that particular chart before GTW - what is the risk based on... temperature, precipitation or both sides of the equation?

Thanks.

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 



I assume it takes the precipitation as a given and shows the risk of that falling as snow. There's another set of charts dealing with the risk of varying rainfall amount thresholds.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
nsrobins
02 December 2022 14:26:07
The UKM extended is probably about as good as you'd expect given they are typically conservative about the possibilities. It is however another tick up and if the Arctic plunge gets within 5 days I would expect them to make more of the snow and ice probabilities more generally.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Remove ads from site

Ads