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Gandalf The White
02 December 2022 20:26:25

5th March - Bahrain? 😂😎

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



LOL

Is the customary exit signal of 'I'll fetch my coat' replaced by a squeal of tyres?

😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
02 December 2022 20:27:58

ECM doesn't have massive support but nor is it bereft of support.

Form horse is for this to be a damp squib for most. 

But, I hope I'm wrong. Plenty of twists and turns to come. 
 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



🙄

Good analysis, as always.... 😉
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+3
Surrey John
02 December 2022 20:49:15

Changes start early on ECM - who knows but it seems GFS and ECM op runs are delayed by 24 hours between wobbles. Just hope it's not a boring blended solution!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



The ECM op was a mild outlier in week 2, outside the range of all the other ensemble lines.  

it looks like there are more ensembles below average than above, but trying to split ensembles in forward week 2 by percentage above and below is not going to indicate a trend, as clearly can't all be right.  I am going to mark this one down as a wobble and see what we have in the morning.


 
Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
some faraway beach
02 December 2022 20:52:07
Just a note that the Analogue Index today has a very high number. Usually the number one spot has a number between seven and eight thousand, so the current synoptics (or yesterday's, to be precise) are actually rather unusual for 1st December.  Hence, maybe, the wide variety of possible developments.

PlaceYearIndex value
1      2001 11137
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Jiries
02 December 2022 20:58:23

Someone remind me about where FI starts in these situations.....
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



None at all, look from the window each day to see what going on outside.  Still miss the old days of newspapers, Ceefax, Teletext forecasts and TV forecasts.  Was always right most of the time.
Matty H
02 December 2022 21:12:30

None at all, look from the window each day to see what going on outside.  Still miss the old days of newspapers, Ceefax, Teletext forecasts and TV forecasts.  Was always right most of the time.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Except when it wasn't. Which was often as well. 

I do miss that as well, simply because there was none of this. You had limited info and there was something nice about that
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
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Zubzero
02 December 2022 21:26:00
Forecasting accuracy has increased massively in the past 30-40 years. 

It's just we notice more when it goes tits up and don't mention the other times where its been mostly accurate + it's more noticble in a blocked cold pattern as a shift of a few hundred miles can make a massive difference, where as in other set ups its much less so. 
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2022 21:47:30
Some very mild ECM ensembles turning up now . Skewing the mean.  Still a could chunk stay cold but basically anything could happen.

UserPostedImage
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Tim A
02 December 2022 21:57:54

Except when it wasn't. Which was often as well. 

I do miss that as well, simply because there was none of this. You had limited info and there was something nice about that

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Secretly you know you want a good snowfall Matty.  In this situation much better with the low fairly nearby and flirting with a bit of danger rather than clean North Easterlies for your location. Bet you would hit the jackpot if the trough sits over the UK as per the last GFS.   No one really wins with the ECM though. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
+1
Gandalf The White
02 December 2022 22:10:19

Forecasting accuracy has increased massively in the past 30-40 years. 

It's just we notice more when it goes tits up and don't mention the other times where its been mostly accurate + it's more noticble in a blocked cold pattern as a shift of a few hundred miles can make a massive difference, where as in other set ups its much less so. 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



I'm faIrly certain that if we peered with the same attention to detail at the runs showing more normal, mobile patterns we would find just as much variability; but we don't.

As you say, a few hundred miles either way can at times change the weather in one location significantly.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Tim A
02 December 2022 22:23:33
GFS 18z has Northerlies at 180hours and the Midlands North covered in snow from disturbances from the North rather than perils from the South.Nothing like ECM at that timeframe.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
ballamar
02 December 2022 22:29:58

GFS 18z has Northerlies at 180hours and the Midlands North covered in snow from disturbances from the North rather than perils from the South.Nothing like ECM at that timeframe.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


great run for the north if you want snow, who would nearly always have a better chance this time of year. Lots of uncertainty past about 5 days still. Great model watching
Gandalf The White
02 December 2022 22:30:52

GFS 18z has Northerlies at 180hours and the Midlands North covered in snow from disturbances from the North rather than perils from the South.Nothing like ECM at that timeframe.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



For those seeking an extended cold spell the 18z out to Day 9 now is shaping up very favourably so far: a rock solid Greenland block feeding Arctic air south and zero sign of any encroachment of mild air from the south-west.  
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Matty H
02 December 2022 22:35:15

Secretly you know you want a good snowfall Matty.  In this situation much better with the low fairly nearby and flirting with a bit of danger rather than clean North Easterlies for your location. Bet you would hit the jackpot if the trough sits over the UK as per the last GFS.   No one really wins with the ECM though. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



Honestly, Tim, I'm not so fussed. I'd enjoy it if it happened, but I don't do the chase thing anymore as I'd rather it was June, lol 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+2
Brian Gaze
02 December 2022 22:37:19
Big shift on the 12z ECM ENS vs 00z.  The 12z update is a lot less cold.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Hippydave
02 December 2022 22:39:53
GFS 18z op so far looks very similar to the UKM run IMO, so it's encouraging to see it maintain the cold. 

Be good to get proper cross model agreement and remove some of the mild scatter in the ens, but suspect that's a few days away, be that towards a shorter cold spell or longer but either way even the somewhat ropey ECM op still has cold making it over most of the UK even if it doesn't last long. 

Given the ECM ens are more favourable for prolonged cold or chilly weather than the op, and the other output, you'd hope the ECM will move back towards the current GFS/UKMO solution rather than it being the model that's closer to getting the pattern right.  
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Arbroath 1320
02 December 2022 22:42:50

For those seeking an extended cold spell the 18z out to Day 9 now is shaping up very favourably so far: a rock solid Greenland block feeding Arctic air south and zero sign of any encroachment of mild air from the south-west.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Not the run I expected. Beyond 180, the 18z pressure pattern in the Atlantic is significantly different compared to the 12z at the same timeframe. The models are struggling with this set-up up I think. Not surprising as it's quite unusual.   
GGTTH
aceandy79
02 December 2022 23:05:36
Just got home from a cracking curry with nsrobins and looks like a good pub run from GFS with a spell of persistent north easterlies for the foreseeable. Snow or no snow, the outlook is looking like my ideal winter weather.
Andy
Hedge End, Hampshire, 26m asl
Arbroath 1320
02 December 2022 23:19:18

Just got home from a cracking curry with nsrobins and looks like a good pub run from GFS with a spell of persistent north easterlies for the foreseeable. Snow or no snow, the outlook is looking like my ideal winter weather.

Originally Posted by: aceandy79 



Good summary Andy. All you can say is, it's a rather cold/cold outlook for the next week or so at least. Snow amounts are very uncertain, but the N/NE of Scotland and North facing, North Sea coasts look favoured spots for snow showers. 

More changes run to run are very likey due to the unusual setup👍

 
GGTTH
Rob K
02 December 2022 23:33:37

The ECM op was a mild outlier in week 2, outside the range of all the other ensemble lines.  

it looks like there are more ensembles below average than above, but trying to split ensembles in forward week 2 by percentage above and below is not going to indicate a trend, as clearly can't all be right.  I am going to mark this one down as a wobble and see what we have in the morning.


 

Originally Posted by: Surrey John 



That's two ECM runs on the trot that are significant warm outliers though, so I suspect the ensembles will soon adjust milder too. 

Edit:  and it seems that process has already started. 

The iPhone weather app (which runs off tbe IBM in-house model IIRC) has also picked up a trend for milder conditions in 9-10 days now, with temperatures up to 9C by Sunday 11th. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Downpour
02 December 2022 23:36:17

That's two ECM runs on the trot that are significant warm outliers though, so I suspect the ensembles will soon adjust milder too. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Agreed. Outlook looks poor for most. I'll get flamed for saying it but that is the reality. 

Cool and dull is seasonal however, but probably not what most members want to see. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
The Beast from the East
02 December 2022 23:36:37

That's two ECM runs on the trot that are significant warm outliers though, so I suspect the ensembles will soon adjust milder too. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



often picks the new trend before other models. That’s why it’s considered the best. Sadly for us this time. Lovely pub run though to raise the spirits 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
ballamar
02 December 2022 23:49:34
I really don't understand some comments on here at times! It's as if any model is suddenly far superior when it shows a certain outcome. GFS used to be good at picking trends now it's some of the runs on ECM
haghir22
02 December 2022 23:54:57
Let's face it, compared with this time yesterday it's not looking as great. Just as I start to nudge friends and family.

At least it's hugely interesting though. Seasonal though is great.

 
YNWA
Arbroath 1320
03 December 2022 00:04:29

Let's face it, compared with this time yesterday it's not looking as great. Just as I start to nudge friends and family.

At least it's hugely interesting though. Seasonal though is great.

 

Originally Posted by: haghir22 



Agreed. 

On a more positive note, if you're a cold lover, the GFS 18z averages are much better than the 12z in FI, especially for the Southern contingent.
GGTTH

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