theweatheroutlook

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Taylor1740
02 December 2022 18:47:51

Was just about to say, if you're a coldie, don't look at the ECM.Unbelievable! Actually, no it's not, as this always happens.​​​​​​​This is exactly why I was keeping my feet grounded.​​​​​​​    

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


yeah same, I will never believe a cold spell is going to happen until the snow is literally falling from the sky. The amount of times a cold spell goes wrong even just 3 days away. And looks like this one is going to be no different. 
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Ally Pally Snowman
02 December 2022 18:47:55
Never underestimate the powers of Mr Pete Tong.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
02 December 2022 18:48:30
The general pattern is as before the specifics make a big difference. It's not overly different to the 00z ECM op run over the Atlantic, the bigger difference is over Scandinavia.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
02 December 2022 18:48:41
From the sublime to the ridiculous. Spring on its way in southern Britain. 😀

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Zubzero
02 December 2022 18:50:03
Don't look to bad to me a million miles from the normal zonal rubbish we see most December's. Plus if you take much notice of 144+ charts your going to get let down alot even with rock solid ens support  watch this did not have. Could still revert to day after tomorrow 2010 1978 1962 1947 type charts.
Matty H
02 December 2022 18:50:19

From the sublime to the ridiculous. Spring on its way in southern Britain. 😀

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Now we are talking!!!!!! Hopefully a new trend. Won't please the coldies though 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Downpour
02 December 2022 18:51:45

Was just about to say, if you're a coldie, don't look at the ECM.Unbelievable! Actually, no it's not, as this always happens.​​​​​​​This is exactly why I was keeping my feet grounded.​​​​​​​    

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



quite right, Kieran. There will be twists and turns and I desperately hope they will turn our way. But as things stand we are looking at snow in the favoured spots (NIMBY) only and most of the UK population shrugging their shoulders. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Tim A
02 December 2022 18:55:57
One of the things that causes disappointment is that people naturally assume because day 1 /2 of a cold spell with great looking synoptics is nailed (which it is even with ECM) then a classic spell will follow but at that point of excitement day 3+ of the cold spell are still well into the unreliable so loads can go wrong to bring it to a premature end or meaning it doesn't really get started in the South. 

Let's hope the low trends back south though so we can have a prolonged spell. Is it highly uncertain past Thursday what will happen.  
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Snow Hoper
02 December 2022 19:01:24
Well I think I'll close that eye and go back to sleep again. This one hasn't got any legs and I should've trusted my gut.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
+1
fullybhoy
02 December 2022 19:04:12
I see the bedwetters are out en masse tonight............calm yirsels 
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
ballamar
02 December 2022 19:17:19
Changes start early on ECM - who knows but it seems GFS and ECM op runs are delayed by 24 hours between wobbles. Just hope it's not a boring blended solution!
snow_dann
02 December 2022 19:19:25
One chart later and it's over! 🙄 Whatever happens it's certainly something different from what seems to be the norm these days. I'm sure it'll change again on the next run, we shall see! 😀
Gandalf The White
02 December 2022 19:20:37
Someone remind me about where FI starts in these situations.....
 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Taylor1740
02 December 2022 19:31:17
GEFS 12z still has plenty of potential for cold, despite the ECM so Winter isn't over just yet...
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Laths
02 December 2022 19:32:47
All eyes on GFS 18z for resuscitation. 
John
Wallington
Surrey
(London Borough of Sutton)
nsrobins
02 December 2022 19:33:22

Someone remind me about where FI starts in these situations.....
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

5th March - Bahrain? 😂😎
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+2
Hade Edge Snowman
02 December 2022 19:36:17

5th March - Bahrain? 😂😎

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


😝
Hade Edge Snowman
West Yorkshire
1060 feet/323 metres ASL
Tim A
02 December 2022 19:36:26

GEFS 12z still has plenty of potential for cold, despite the ECM so Winter isn't over just yet...

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



There is scatter and some warmer runs from the 7th but most stay cold for another week. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Zubzero
02 December 2022 19:36:34
FI starts wherever a cold chart is as 90% of the time it won't come to fruition. 😀

What ever the ECM shows the GEFS Look cold to me with a chance of a few ice days. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=304&y=106&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 
 
Saint Snow
02 December 2022 19:47:27
I see the kindergarten's out in force tonight.

😒

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Downpour
02 December 2022 19:52:12

Changes start early on ECM - who knows but it seems GFS and ECM op runs are delayed by 24 hours between wobbles. Just hope it's not a boring blended solution!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



ECM doesn't have massive support but nor is it bereft of support.

Form horse is for this to be a damp squib for most. 

But, I hope I'm wrong. Plenty of twists and turns to come. 
 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
ballamar
02 December 2022 19:56:00

GEFS 12z still has plenty of potential for cold, despite the ECM so Winter isn't over just yet...

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


I thought it was going to be a SW dominated winter you have said many times!
ballamar
02 December 2022 19:57:34

Someone remind me about where FI starts in these situations.....
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


when blocking ends and less cold weather is likely - could be as early as T48
Tim A
02 December 2022 20:03:59
For what it is worth Mogreps still looks good, but then again it looked good for Boxing Day last year long after all other models had conceded defeat. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Brian Gaze
02 December 2022 20:16:39
Exceptionally tight clustering on MOGREPS-G. Looks different to ECM where there is clearly a cluster going down the same route as the op. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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